Sanctions against Russia

[rgmwa]

Problem is the losers think they are winners.

 

[Old Koreelah]

This Russian expert is worth listening to; he believes Putin is nowhere near tossing in the towell.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64727302

 

America loses wars because it has a much shorter attention span than most of it’s adversaries. All Putin has to do is outlast the West. That might happen, especially if China supplies what he can’t build in Russia, or if the appalling Republicans cut support for Urkraine.

[facthunter]

The Repulsive Republicans are criticising Joe, so it must be a winner.. IF China saves Putin they  are then a threat to HIS authority.  There'd be a lot of people keen to see the end of Putin. The EFFECT of his actions has been to weaken Russia and compromise the Peoples future wealth and wellbeing and trustworthyness. . Nev

[rgmwa]

I think Putin is prepared to wage this war down to the last Russian. He can't afford stop even if he had second thoughts about continuing, which I'm sure he doesn't. About the only thing that will stop the war is Putin falling out of a high rise window. 

[facthunter]

His projection of how it would turn out is miles off what actually happened and just WHO would consider it well organised?. Keeping people from knowing the truth is a risky path. It is now a very weakened Russia compared to what it was 12 months ago and plenty know it..   Nev

[kgwilson]

The Chinese are not entirely stupid even though they have the same authoritarian style of regime but their economy depends upon trade with Europe and the US. If they start supplying Putin they risk losing a massive amount of this and with it their income and influence.

 

Putlers only other real mate is Lukashenko & he is only there because Putler has propped him up. He would have been gone after the last election if Putin had not stepped in to save his skin when the pro democracy movement got the whole country protesting.

 

He has recently had a whinge about Ukrainian military exercises near the Belarus border. Western intelligence suggests that if he sent the Belarus army in to Ukraine it is most likely that there would be a mass mutiny & they military would turn back on Lukashenko. There is already a Ukrainian regiment made up of Belarusian volunteers for them to join.

 

One day to go before the 1st anniversary of the invasion. The long awaited Russian offensive is likely to be a fizzer given the antics of the last few weeks. Ukraine is doing what it should by telling no-one about what they have planned.

 

They seem to be doing what Montgomery did at El Alamein in 1942. Build up men armaments and supplies until you have superiority in all fields. The waiting back then frustrated a lot of his Generals but he refused to budge. When he made the move, even with a number of mistakes he had the reserves to guarantee victory & the 8th army chased the Germans out of Egypt through Libya to surrender at Tunis. Hopefully this will happen again. The only Elephant in the room is Putlers nukes.

[facthunter]

Everything will change if that is done.. They are all bloody idiots.   Nev

[Marty_d]

With all the drone technology today, can anybody seriously tell me it's impossible to assassinate Putin? (without the assassins getting killed themselves, of course!)

Obviously it's not ideal to start picking off heads of state, but fer chrissakes, how many citizens of both countries is this idiot's life worth?

[kgwilson]

There were several unsuccessful attempts on Hitlers life during WW2 and the entire Western World & the USSR was at war with Germany. The attempts were all internal. No-one could get near the arsehole. Putler is the same. He is totally paranoid about his security. If it happens it will have to be an inside job by a suicide jockey. Putin just organises for anyone who he thinks is becoming a threat to fall down stairs or out a window. Hitler wasn't that subtle. They were summarily shot.

[Old Koreelah]

31 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

There were several unsuccessful attempts on Hitlers life during WW2 and the entire Western World & the USSR was at war with Germany. The attempts were all internal…

I believe the Allies were planning to bump Hitler off, but eventually realised he was more use to them where he was-a Corporal with no military planning experience over-ruling his top Generals.

 

Another aspect: you don’t want to turn the b@stard into a martyr.

In this war, a major advantage enjoyed by Ukraine is morale and motivation- they have it in spades, the Russians don’t. If the average Russian perceives his motherland is threatened, Ukraine is in trouble.

[willedoo]

6 hours ago, kgwilson said:

They seem to be doing what Montgomery did at El Alamein in 1942. Build up men armaments and supplies until you have superiority in all fields. The waiting back then frustrated a lot of his Generals but he refused to budge. When he made the move, even with a number of mistakes he had the reserves to guarantee victory & the 8th army chased the Germans out of Egypt through Libya to surrender at Tunis. Hopefully this will happen again.

From what I understand, that's exactly what the Ukrainians are doing. Russia has a lot more meat in the trenches now, and while they are not good quality, they are still there. To do a successful push, Ukraine has to have all it's ducks lined up in a row. I think they're being patient so they can do it right when it happens. I wouldn't say they'll only get one chance at it, but it's a lot easier to get it right the first time. A failed operation would set the clock back for them for sure. It's easier to defend than attack, so all they have to do is keep the Russians where they are until all that new gear arrives, along with fresh troops trained to use it. A lot of the Ukrainian force is tired and in need of rotation, so it will take a bit longer until they have enough fresh trained troops to start filtering in to the front.

 

Even if Putler fell out a window, it's very doubtful the crazies replacing him would withdraw from Ukraine. So that leaves only two likely ways Ukraine will get their land back. The first is a total collapse of the Russian forces and their supporting logistics, giving the Russians no option but to pull back. Even then, they would probably try to hold on to whatever they can. The second option is the most likely - a continuing long hard war of attrition.

 

Despite the fantastical daydreams of some people, there's no white hat guy with a toothpaste ad smile waiting in the wings to bring freedom and democracy to Russia. The country doesn't work like that. Whoever replaces the current masters will at best be just as bad. The only option is to beat them back to the borders and work hard at making sure they stay there.

[willedoo]

This is one of the inflatable HIMARS decoys that a Czech company has been manufacturing for Ukraine.

 

[kgwilson]

Just like the pre-D-Day inflatable stuff in 1944 that helped fool the Germans into thinking the invasion was going to be at Calais. This time though the Russians know that some are fake. The problem for them is to know which ones will bite.

[red750]

A double whammy. Fire a misslile at it, it's a decoy, waste a missile. Don't attack, it bites you.

[rgmwa]

So far China seems to have been relatively neutral on the war in Ukraine, but I wonder if that may change given Xi Jinping’s upcoming meeting with Putin and his recent meeting with Wang Yi. If Putin starts getting support from Chins it won’t be a good for Ukraine’s future. On the other hand Xi Jinping won’t believe Putin’s propaganda and lies and might be happier to see this conflict end rather than escalate. 

[Jerry_Atrick]

It would be an "interesting" turn of events if China bought into the war. Would the West, who are probably China's biggest customer, be sanctioned? Could they be sanctioned? While switching oil and gas suppliers is costly, it can be done much quicker than switching suppliers for virtually everything that is manufactured by china, be it components or finished products..

[kgwilson]

The US & Western Europe make up well over half of Chinas trading so sanctions against them by China will hurt China as much as them, probably more. With Chinas rapid rise to become the worlds factory so has the cost of manufacture there with the increase in labour costs so manufacturing is shifting to places like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and of course India.

 

While Western businesses get masses of things made in China, it is to a specification they have supplied and they still have the capability to manufacture it at home though most of the manufacturing infrastructure is gone and would need to be re-established or outsourced to other countries.

 

China does make good stuff but makes masses of cheap rubbish over specified copies. Xi Jinping is not stupid & while he wants to keep in Putins good books, any direct involvement by supplying Putin with weapons is very risky and I don't think he will go that far.

[rgmwa]

I don’t think China would directly supply Putin with weapons but they might provide chips and fabricate components that Putin or his allies like Iran need to make weapons. Good outcome economically for China while at the same time they can maintain their show of apparent neutrality. Meanwhile the war keeps going and the US and the West keep feeling the strain while Putin becomes more dependent on his Chinese friend. That would suit Xi Jinping very nicely. He wins all around.

[spacesailor]

Until  ! , they feel the economic preasure on the home front, It will start to bite the downtrodden masses .

Eventually. 

spacesailor

[willedoo]

I've decided that a pathetic little dictator doesn't deserve the common courtesy and grammatical custom of capital letters. From now on it's lower case and little ᵖᵘᵗⁱⁿ only.

 

[spacesailor]

Who ! .

putin , Or , all those little dictators who run our world .

spacesailor

[Marty_d]

He certainly puts the "dick" in dictator.  

Hopefully one day he'll be in prison so someone else will.

[willedoo]

[willedoo]

Last October Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov established the 'Hero of Chechnya' award as the republic's highest award. A couple of days ago it was awarded to the first recipient, Ramzan Kadyrov.

 

[red750]

Saw a protest sign a couple of days ago

 

Put out Putin.