2022 Victorian State Election

[Jerry_Atrick]

I know most on these fora are not from (or don't live in) Vic, but I thought I would start this thread anyway. In my local pub, some 10,653 miles away from Mornington, one of the locals confirmed that I was originally from Melbourne. He then reached for his phone (at which time I joked that he was reporting me to immigration) and showed me a picture of a young man running for office in the Mornington Electorate, for the Greens; and proudly boasted it was his nephew (his brother moved to Aus some 30 years ago).

 

He was very chuffed with his nephew, and of course, I ocngratulated him. We got talking about politics in Aus, and I explained that I am very much a swinging voter (oi! Just with voting), and that in Aus at the moment, it would be the Greens or the independents that would get my vote, because, apart from the Greens position on nuclear, which I am not dead against, but think they should be more practical, the seem to have the balance of sustainability for the economy, ecology, and society right. I then explained they are about as close to the Lib Dems in the UK which also tries to strike a similar balance (and is tipped at this stage to come back from the dead after their disasterous election reesults previously - mainly thanks to BoJo and Truss).

 

So, Vics have the Choice of a continued Andrews Government, of a Guy Liberal government (I guess nationals fit in there somewhere), with those pesky Greens and talk of a new wave of indepdents (Teals?). At the moment, the press has Andrews battered a little, but holding a comfy lead over Guy.

 

What I like and dislike about elections is how the narrative changes to suit the message people wish to portray. Despite the press' assertions that Andrews can't manage the economy, at the moment, according to various sources, Victoria's is the best performing state economy, despite the COVID hit: https://www.mpamag.com/au/news/general/which-state-is-australias-leading-economy/414345. NSW, which is often held up as the government with the best fiscal policies, and the state that has the population to be in the top 2, is in the bottom 2, with WA and its resources is placed 5th. Of course, this performance is fuelled by debt, with the AFR reporting Vic has heached a record level of debt of $2BN (and probably counting)... the question will be whether the surge in economic performance will give a sustained boost to the economy to cover what will be sustained debt. Only time will tell. 

 

But, the Andrews government has some pretty seriousl failings.. regardless when the rot set in. The obvious one is the emergency services - especially helath, where the reportting is relentless of the issues facing the system and the crisis it is in. I couldn't readily find a comparison table with other states, but in  some ways, it does not matter.. health, education, and justice are things that each state and the federal government should want to excel in..

 

 

But, what do the other teams offer? Have to spend more time reading, but one I do like from the Libs is the capped transport costs. The reason the press is quoting Guy for capping it, is to ease the cost of living, which is in itself commendable, to say the least. However, he really could have capitalised as attracting people out of their cars to ease pollution, and of course, climate change, but I get that is a dirty word/reason in the Libs chambers.  It is for zones 1 & 2, so I am not sure what happens to the other zones (is it up to 6?), but one would expect a similar cap, and much reduced fares to cross into zones 2 and then 1. The independent parliamentary budget office estimated the cost to be $1.3bn over 4 years - or $333m/year.. That does not seem exhorbitant compared to the value it will put back into society - well, not to me, anyway.

 

Andrews has questioned the fiscal responsibiliy of this. I haven't read the article yet, so I am only guessing, but a quick thik will realise there are a few other things to think about.. For example, it will result in a decrease in fuel consumption, so at the forecourts, there may be problems. However, these days, most servos make money from the convenience stores sales and petrol is just something to drag them in with. Thos convenience stores will still service the commuity. Then, there is the car parks. I used to use my car when working in Melbourne becase the additonal cost was outweighed by the convenience... especially with early bird parking (I always arrive early for work, and usually leave later). But, at $2, that saving would outweigh the convenience by a long shot. Even things like less road works due to less wear and tear would come into play. So, I get it oculd have a knock on effect, but the reality is most people would pump their saved money into other areas which may be more beneficial to society (except, a bit more would go to gambling, I would guess), so the net effect should be close to zero.

 

Interestingly, this article came up: https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/2-a-day-public-transport-fares-under-victorian-opposition-pledge-20221009-p5bo9n.html; in particular this claim:

"But Professor Jago Dodson, director of urban research at RMIT University, said free public transport was an “economically regressive policy” and risked worsening social inequalities by benefiting wealthier households.

Maps produced by Dodson show the quality of public transport networks was poorest in the outer suburbs, where households have lower incomes, so the benefits of cheap public transport did not flow to those people."

 

He has a point, as the services provided means people in outer suburbs will not be as easily availed of the savings.. but underfunding in transport in outer suburbs are for two reasons - first, planning rarely takes it into account and more often than not, they are left with an infrequent bus service to nowhere. Secondly, certainly in Victoria, the growth has been so quick, even if planning provided for the complex infrastructure, it would take years to catch up. But is that a reason not to introduce the cap? There are poorer areas in inner city Melbourne, too. Broadmeadows, Glenroy, Sunshine, Footscray, Coburg, etc.. hardly the playground of the rich and famous. In addition, there are also many outer areas that are quite wealthy - for example has anyone looked at the prices of Croydon, lately? A lot of the outer east and South East is middle class - hardly what one would call poor. It also ignores that people will drive to the closest useful transport and use it, still availing themselves to what would become a cheaper mode overall.

 

I wonder if Andrews had come up with it, whether it would have received the same criticism?

 

 

 

 

 

[red750]

Here is a map of the Vic metropolitan rail network. Zones 1 & 2 are white, 3 - 13 shaded. So you can travel between any two stations in the white area for $2 per day. Saw a post on Facebook from someone who lives outside Zones 1 & 2 who says it costs her $27.60 per day to get to work in the city.

 

http://Victorian-train-network-map

 

Also on Facebook:

 

 

 

[red750]

On Sunrise this morning, Matthew Guy said the buses from Geelong, Ballarat and the Latrobe Valley are included. Country trains are the responsibility of VLine (referred to in closed captions as feline).

[Bruce Tuncks]

I'm a card-carrying member of Sustainable Australia. But nobody has ever heard of them. Obviously, the majority of voters want an unsustainable Australia.

So I dunno who to vote for between the majors. They are both corrupt in that they take money from "donors".

As a young person, I used to vote Labor. I reckon I didn't change but they did. Now I live in Victoria but so far from Melbourne that nothing matters around here...

The local hospital is now administered in a zone which goes from Werribee ( a Melbourne suburb ) way out to the SA border.

Ah well, Werribee is a western suburb at least. Guess I'll be voting for what used to be the country party until they were bought out by coal-mining interests and re-named the National party. They are part of the liberals because of the coalition, and their main role is to provide comedy relief to the liberals, in that they all look and talk like dad n dave from the backblocks.

I really relate to being dad from the backblocks myself.

[old man emu]

The only good thing associated with transporting humans is that they load themselves. There is no profit to be made doing it. If you look into it, Governments heavily subsidise public transport, and in Australia that applies especially to bus services in the outer suburbs. And while there is a good case to say that public transport is a better choice for the environment, it is not much of a choice for the independent lifestyle we enjoy. Have you ever had to plan what time you need to prepare for to jump in your car and nick down to Bunnings for a left hand thread widget? 

 

And look at our light industrial areas. How can public transport get hundreds of employees delivered over a wide area at the same time? And those employees will be coming from many different directions. It's not like Britain in the Victorian era when workers lived cheek by jowl with the factories they worked in.

[spacesailor]

But the , old Victorian workers scene, is just what they want .

Back into time, middle class use ' trams ' to the office.

The lower class use bicycles to factories. 

Highrise slum like housing If working .

Unenployed are unhoused ( homeless  ).

Private hospitals only available If insured. 

No medical for the "unemployed homeless society " .

Does this sound familiar. 

spacesailor

[facthunter]

OK Space, where else in the world would you rather live? Nev

[old man emu]

During the post WWII period people of many European nations came to Australia, I think because it was about as far from the ingrained instability of life in Europe that you could get. At the time Australia had a large population of twenty-something year- olds who were trying to establish their own lives after the disruption to the normal flow of generations caused by the War. Resources for manufacture and building of the houses these young Australians wanted for their families were scarce. Scarcity brings competition, and one of the ways humans compete is by bad mouthing the opposition. Do you think that the media of the day would miss the opportunity to sell papers by not giving the competition pot a bit of a stir?

 

Sure we had whinging Poms. But we also had salami munching Ities, flat-headed Germans and humourless Dutch. In the late 70's we had slope-heads. Then we got Lebs in the 80's. In to 2010's we got the Chows and now we are becoming a curry stew with the influx of Indians. Not to forget the Sudanese who are terrorising Melbourne. But we are being pretty good to the FOBs because they play League and Union really well.

[facthunter]

There's plenty of "white Trash" to go around. There's good and bad in every race. Plenty of 10 pound Poms I'd pay to send back with interest, starting with Phoney A Bot..   Nev

[onetrack]

That "leading State economy" article seems to be particularly unbalanced to me. It takes into account, and prioritises, many economic features that are not important to many people.

The features of an area that makes for a highly liveable lifestyle, are;

 

1. The number of attractive parks and public areas that are good for recreation and family gatherings. This is becoming more important, as blocks for new housing become smaller and smaller.

 

2. The quietness, cleanliness, and law-abiding-ness of the area. Grubbiness such as rubbish in the streets, graffiti and hordes of beggars puts people off living in an area. Noisiness caused by hoons and excessive levels of traffic and industry, also deter people.

 

3. The general appearance of an area as regards green-ness and leafy-ness. The newer housing suburbs are bare and lifeless as regards a lack of vegetation, and decent-sized trees. Big trees make an area attractive and reduce heat levels in Summer.

 

4. The cost of living in the chosen area. Rural and even outskirts suburbs suffer from increased prices for everything from food to fuel, thanks to distance to distribution or supply centres, and a lack of retail competition.

 

5. The availability of amenities in the region, such as good internet and phone accessibility and speeds, schools, stadiums, good restaurants, swimming pools, theatres, and other entertainment varieties, shows, nightclubs, golf courses and gyms. All these, are things people like to have available, and reasonably close to where they live.

 

6. Train lines are always limited in their attractiveness to people, and people are always tossing up whether to drive, or take the train. For large events at stadiums or theatres, the train is usually the sensible choice.

 

7. Traffic congestion bugs everyone, and Govts are always trying to address it. But more train lines are not necessarily the answer. We live in a country with vast areas to cover, and spread-out towns and cities and facilities. Personal transportation always features large as a choice to most people in Australia. Easy access to airports probably counts as more important to many people, than easy access to train lines.

 

8. The cost of housing in any chosen area has a major impact on where people live. I'm fortunate that I live in a very pleasant inner city suburb of Perth, probably best described as green and leafy and attractive. We have a substantial number of shopping centres within a few kms, and airport access is easy. We have new roads almost everywhere, and traffic congestion is still not too bad.

Everyone that comes to visit says it's such a nice area, and they'd love to live here, but can't afford it. Yet the median value of houses in my suburb is only around $900,000, which is not as expensive as many ordinary houses in Sydney. However, a lot of people can't afford much more than about $500,000 to $600,000 for a home, so they're limited in their housing choices, as to where they can afford to live.

 

In the current period, we are undergoing a revolution in how we work and operate. Our communications infrastructure has been steadily upgraded, and working from home, is going to be how a lot of people work permanently, from now on.

More and more automation is appearing in factories, warehouses, minesites and other work areas. Even our local pie factory has just automated its entire factory, eliminating a large number of people from its workforce.

 

Service industries are becoming a major part of our society, and aged care is one area which will feature much larger in our economy in the near future. IT operations are big, and getting steadily bigger. 

Everything is going online today, much to the frustration of older people who haven't kept up with technology. As someone who has recently had to have major interaction with doctors and healthcare providers, I was amazed at how much this industry has gone over to online.

Yes, you still have to present in person for examination and checks and tests, but the amount of trips is substantially reduced, and doctors and surgery waiting rooms are nearly empty today, such is the smoothness of the medical professions online arrangements.

All of the above means that train lines are not going to become more important in the future. Train lines will always have their place, but at best, train lines are loss-making public services, unless the city population is in the multi-millions.

 

State debt is not something that many people consider, but it features big in peoples eventual cost of living. State debt is steadily tacked on to Govt bills and services. The States that run high debt levels always have increased levels of taxes and duties and charges - many of them insidious, but always increasing. 

The  W.A. Govt has just reported a $6B surplus in the States finances - a virtually unheard-of financial position for most States. Yet at the same time, we have had a massive level of Govt investment in infrastructure - new highways everywhere, multiple new train lines, removal of low bridges and grade separation at road-rail crossings that caused extensive congestion, replacement of aged infrastructure by way of new water mains replacing 120-yr-old mains, constant upgrades to airports, and even major upgrades to weather reporting facilities such as radar.

 

In addition, the W.A. Govt will not allow pokies, and owns our State Lottery system - LotteryWest. LotteryWest contributes more than $300M annually to community organisation in W.A., which grants directly benefit every person in W.A. LotteryWest is a huge funder of the RFDS, and pays for the installation of many community facilities such as playgrounds, art facilities and community events.

In nearly every other Australian State (except S.A.), buying a Lottery ticket mean you're only making a coterie of already-rich Tatts shareholders, much richer. Tatts provide much less value to the community than the State-owned Lotteries.

The W.A. Govt has refused to privatise our State power generation facilities - it's all owned by the people of W.A., and not corporate grubs intent on shafting clients ruthlessly.

 

In comparison, Victoria owes a total of $167B in State debt, with a projected $17B deficit this year. The W.A.'s Govts total debt level is $28B and falling rapidly as the W.A. Govt pays it down.

 

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-winners-and-losers-in-the-victorian-budget-20220503-p5ahzo#:~:text=Victoria will deliver a budget,%24167 billion within four years.

 

https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2022/02/Western-Australia-s-net-debt-falls-to-six-year-low.aspx

 

In summary, I believe W.A. has an outstanding economy, far in front of many other States, as regards liveability and infrastructure, in having a low State debt level, and a lower total cost of living. I don't see how a debt-ridden Victoria with all its ancient infrastructure and Govt facilities problems, can be classed as having a "leading State economy". I think the parameters used in that conclusion are extremely narrow.

 

Meantimes, here's the latest train line news from W.A. - if you love trains, you'll be pleased to find we have just opened a whole new (largely underground) train line from Perth Airport to the City, and in fact, the new line runs way past the airport, into the foothills of the Darling Range. It was supposed to cost only $2B, but it ended up costing $10B, typical of major projects, as a number of adverse circumstances impacted upon costs during the time it was built.

However, it's only money, and probably all the next level of arguments will be about how much of a loss the new train network regularly runs at, and whether we can sustain carrying that continued level of losses. Automation of the trains and elimination of hard-to-find train drivers, will be on the cards shortly.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-09/forrestfield-airport-link-project-launched-after-delays/101511000

 

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by onetrack

[onetrack]

I included the wrong link for W.A.'s current State debt level - here's the current one, for the FY just ended.

 

https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/McGowan/2022/09/2021-22-Annual-Report-on-State-Finances-released.aspx

[facthunter]

Mining has carried WA lately. It's in a fairly "fortunate" situation.. Stopping Auto manufacturing hit Victoria and SA Hard. Nev

[red750]

OT. e your comments on doctors surgeries. At the one I attend, and there are a number in very nearby suburbs, usually has 4 to 5 doctors operating at any one time. Pre COVID, they had two waiting areas, usually with a dozen or more patients waiting. Since COVID, you were not allowed to use the waiting room if you came by car, you had to sit in your car and wait for the receptionist to call you. Sometimes you have to park in a side street because the carpark is full. You arrive on time for your appointment and report to reception by phone. Then you often have to wait up to half an hour or more before you are called. This is on top of any tele-consults.

[Yenn]

Voting numbers must be down in Vic. Here in central Qld we have a load of Victorians buying in. It s keeping our house prices up.

Most places now seem to be wall to wall houses. I have been house seeking and so many are nearly touching. Instead of downsizing I am buying into a house of about the same size and just reducing the land area, but I couldn't live on the common 5 or 6 hundred square metres, where you hear your neighbour snooring.

[facthunter]

Copulating and arguing as well (and the Bl@@dy DOG.  (barking)   Nev

[Marty_d]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

Copulating and arguing as well (and the Bl@@dy DOG.  (barking)   Nev

It's a bugger when you can't hear them copulating because of the bloody dog barking - that's what you meant isn't it Nev?  😁

[facthunter]

Flattening the battery trying to get the family Morris Minor to start each Saturday was worse. Nev

[onetrack]

We had a fairly rough couple rent the house next door about 15 years ago, after the old lady who owned it, passed on. He was a plumber and she looked like a real plumbers floozy, big boobs hanging out most of the time.

 

One Summer, we could regularly hear this racket coming from next door (their bedroom is just over the fence and both our main bedroom windows face the road, and only about 9-10 metres apart).

We could hear this "Ooooohhh! Aaaaahhhh! Give it to me, Big Boy! Aaaaaahhhhhhh, I want more, MORE!! Ooooof! Oooof! Ooooohh!!!"

 

This sort of racket went on for a few hours, and we were quite stunned at the seeming endurance of the couple. However, the Missus, who has perfect hearing, finally picked up on the fact that the woman was running a SEX LINE!!

 

She was coming out with all this heavy breathing and Ooooohs and Aaaaahhhhs and other randy outbursts, to keep the callers entertained so they could get off on it!! They weren't the randy pair of copulators that we initially thought they were!!  LOL

 

Edited October 10, 2022 by onetrack

[facthunter]

You MIGHT get over it eventually but I can't promise anything. Nev

[spacesailor]

onetrack

Amenities : the NbN rollout is two class . Fibre for the CBD & those rich enough to pay for the top contract 

BUT for us suburbanites ' copper to the node ' ,

Green pastures ! , until this government,  sold the ' public amenities  ' for highrise flats, ( was our tennis court ).

Good & nice neighborhood,  the pollies changed it from  ' low density residential ' to medium density mixed .

( so developer can build flats.).

Forty or more years ago it Was great  even for those whinging  10, pound poms, (my whine ? I paid full price. )

My two brotherinlaw came on it and rearly made good ,both buried here .

spacesailor

 

[willedoo]

8 minutes ago, spacesailor said:

Amenities : the NbN rollout is two class . Fibre for the CBD & those rich enough to pay for the top contract 

BUT for us suburbanites ' copper to the node ' ,

For a lot of us in the country, the NBN connection is fixed wireless. I was concerned about the quality of it at first in regards to drop outs, but when I connected to it, I had no problems. I recon it's way better than the old copper wire ADSL. But then I'm lucky to be only about a kilometre from the tower as the crow flies.

[Bruce Tuncks]

In the last depression, the suburbs could 1/3 feed themselves. A quarter acre block ( 1000sq m ) allows fruit trees, chooks and a veggie patch.

In the coming shortages, these tiny blocks will be death-traps. OR, we can solve global warming, resource depletion and overpopulation ( all 3 ) !

[nomadpete]

Agreed, Bruce.

Hearsay, of course (or ageing memory cells), but I vaguely recall that during the great depression, a third of the city dwellers had a family connection living on a farm somewhere. There was a way to survive either there or by having a veggie patch on the suburban quarter acre house lot.

Fast forward to the teeming concrete feedlots of our present cities, and the cramped yardless 'low density' housing in our sprawling suburbs. The only town planning that I see is plans to milk as much money from each square meter as possible. Little or no planning is made for wellbeing of inhabitants, food security, stormwater water, work, travel, environment, etc.

[facthunter]

I call it a "quality of Life " thing. It's not really related to how much your house is worth and whether it's the biggest /best. most noticed gaudy place in the whole crap town. The amount of work you have to do to pay the rotten thing off is mind bending and getting out of your driveway can be an anger inducing start to a miserable day. Then the rates / insurance/ Maintenance Garden competition and people bored out of their brains dropping in to use all your Beer coffee time/swimming pool, Billiard table barbecue, special tools pick your brain etc.  Having all that in control would be quality of life and do projects with a dedicated group who weren't trying to empire build or exercise their overblow egos. Nev

[facthunter]

Thank Heavens that post came up . It'd time ex'd and can never be done again  in my experience. . Nev