Marty_d Posted February 13 Posted February 13 I think it's a stretch to indicate an 80 year cycle for something as complex as weather in Australia, where written records only go back a maximum of 3 cycles. 2
old man emu Posted February 13 Posted February 13 56 minutes ago, facthunter said: I wouldn't give a lot of credence to the fixed time cycle I agree with your supporting comments, but I think that the things that you listed in the above post are elements of "weather". Identifying cycles over long periods of time is what I would call "climate". 1 1
old man emu Posted February 13 Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Marty_d said: I think it's a stretch to indicate an 80 year cycle for something as complex as weather in Australia, where written records only go back a maximum of 3 cycles. Reasonably true, but a little bit of data is better than no data at all. The conclusions drawn from a small sample may not be conclusive, but they do proved one with an initial hypothesis.
facthunter Posted February 13 Posted February 13 Bit like saying Aircraft accidents occur in 3's. Occurrences are weather events but if the Sahara and the amazon switched their rain patterns it WOULD be a change of geography resulting from the Climate Change. IF weather events become more severe and more frequent we have a NEW "Normal" which would be a change as far as I can see. Nev
old man emu Posted February 13 Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, facthunter said: would be a change as far as I can see. A change in the overall "climate" indicated by a change in the type of "weather" events. It's all the fault of the semantics.
facthunter Posted February 13 Posted February 13 IF you want to make it so. It seems clear to me. Nev
facthunter Posted February 13 Posted February 13 A lot of time is wasted on this one. . Usually by people who just want to confuse. I don't include you in that group. Nev
old man emu Posted February 13 Posted February 13 The weather events we are experiencing currently are definitely outside our prior experience, but as has been pointed out, accurate records really only exist for about 400 years at best, and those early ones are often anecdotal and localised. It is more likely that consistent worldwide records only began to be taken from roughly 1925. That's possibly a result of the development of civil and military aviation which depends for safety on good weather observations. For maritime operations, I suspect that sailors would just think that the weather is what it is. Probably the only way to determine if it is climate or weather that is changing is to keep analysing sediment such as glacial ice and sediments in waterbodies.
facthunter Posted February 13 Posted February 13 (edited) Sailors relied on the Barometer.( I read mine all the time) and the wind direction strength and an idea of the MSL Isobars. Swells on the surface tell a lot also . Nev Edited February 13 by facthunter
onetrack Posted February 13 Posted February 13 (edited) Cyclone Zelia is a biggie, it's turned into a Category 5. There's a number of towns and a couple of cities in the Pilbara battening down for some massive winds. Pardoo has received 310mm of rain since 9:00AM yesterday morning. The problem is a lot of the Pilbara region river catchments are already soaked, and the rivers still running, from the last cyclone only a couple of weeks ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24200.html http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60285.shtml Some truck driver donkey has lost his road train at a floodway on the Ripon Hills Road, East of Marble Bar. It looks like it's at Mount Creek, which runs into the Fortescue River just downstream a bit. This creek is raging now, imagine what it's going to be like in a couple of days after Cylone Zelia has dumped another 150mm or 200mm in the catchment! https://www.google.com/maps/@-21.2260964,120.4944031,3a,75y,111.72h,93.4t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sN8N2aNrTM11XjBAE2y0tfA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D-3.4032934612263546%26panoid%3DN8N2aNrTM11XjBAE2y0tfA%26yaw%3D111.72167461954302!7i16384!8i8192!5m1!1e4?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDIxMC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/wa/severe-tropical-cyclone-zelia-18u-driver-rescued-after-truck-washed-off-bridge-submerged-in-water-c-17712448 Edited February 13 by onetrack 1
old man emu Posted February 13 Posted February 13 Just looked at the radar and it appears that I'll be getting some light rain later this morning. There is a 999 millibar Low just north of the NSW/Qld border. 1
facthunter Posted February 13 Posted February 13 WA is the one to watch in the next 1 and 1/2 days It's a biggie and will bring moisture to a lot of other places as well. Mostly SE of it's present position. Nev 1
old man emu Posted February 14 Posted February 14 This morning I posted that I was likely to get some rain this afternoon. I checked the radar about 4:00 pm and there was a nice patch moving directly towards me. About 6:30 pm there was some rain that barely got the gutters going. I checked the radar and the patch had drifted a few kilometres to the north and there is not sign of any more rain coming over my place. Luckily I have bore water and only use rainwater for drinking. I've probably got about 380 litres of 400 in my tanks. 1
red750 Posted February 14 Posted February 14 A guy went for a holiday on a pig farm. For breakfast, they had eggs and bacon. For lunch it was ham sandwiches. In the evening, they had pork chops or roast pork. The guy said to the farmer, "This tea tastes strange." The farmer said, "Yes, we use bore water." The guy said, "Gee, you don't waste much of the pig, do you?" 2
facthunter Posted February 15 Posted February 15 I think you are telling "Porkers.". Where did the eggs come from? Nev
Marty_d Posted February 15 Posted February 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, facthunter said: I think you are telling "Porkers.". Where did the eggs come from? Nev Hen's vaginas, Nev. Edited February 15 by Marty_d
onetrack Posted February 15 Posted February 15 Well, Cyclone Zelia has come and gone and luckily it avoided Port Hedland and Karratha and came ashore around the mouth of the De Grey River about 80kms E of Port Hedland. Not a lot of damage in the above-mentioned cities, a fair few trees down and the odd fence leant over, but generally, minimal damage for a cyclone that was very intense at one point. Some of the station sheds copped a hiding, but that's pretty normal. Most station sheds wouldn't stand up for long in a big blow. Possibly the main factor in the limited damage was the cyclone was relatively small, as far as diameter goes. However, that didn't stop some of the stations and Aboriginal Communities near De Grey and a little further inland getting 500 and 600mm of rain. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-15/tropical-cyclone-zelia-live-blog-saturday/104940132 1
facthunter Posted February 15 Posted February 15 They" peter out" when they cease to get moist air. They will never go far in desert,. Nev 1
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