Electric car thread

[kgwilson]

Since the release of the Cybertruck and the big increase in its price, I'd have thought orders would fall away. Apparently not so. Tesla has reported that they have been receiving 10,000 new orders per day and orders now stand at 2.3 million. At their stated production rate of 250,000 per year that is over 9 years of orders. So order one now & get delivery in 2033. Most orders are from the US & Canada but apparently Australian orders are No 3. There are a lot of crazy people in this world.

[old man emu]

While the basis of this story - Bentley going 100% EV - can be treated as a bit of an aside, think about the background. If governments are leaning towards banning ICEs of all types, what effect will such a ban be on the global economy. Imagine all container ships having to take out their oil-fired steam turbines to replace them electric motors.

 

 

[Litespeed]

59 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

Since the release of the Cybertruck and the big increase in its price, I'd have thought orders would fall away. Apparently not so. Tesla has reported that they have been receiving 10,000 new orders per day and orders now stand at 2.3 million. At their stated production rate of 250,000 per year that is over 9 years of orders. So order one now & get delivery in 2033. Most orders are from the US & Canada but apparently Australian orders are No 3. There are a lot of crazy people in this world.

I really expect a lot of those orders will never be filled as demand will collapse after the hangover wears off.

 

The Aussies will never get one as it could not meet our ADR and new euro standards we are taking up.

 

Many US orders will be from queue jumpers hoping to secure a place to sell later for a huge profit. That market will quickly be filled and a lot will be left with trucks they personally did not really want. I expect most have been ordered as speculative investment.

 

Naturally Tesla will use these deposits as interest free finance. At $1000 ? Each that's 2.3 billion.

[spacesailor]

Toyota 

Has said,

" their order book for the V8 Cruiser,  is full & no more orders will be taken  " .

Or the same ' heavy vehicle ' with a FOUR CYLINDER MOTOR .

There's money in having a ' wanted car on order ' .

The daughter keeps having people wanting to buy , her V8 Cruiser for more than it cost to buy .

spacesailor

[Jerry_Atrick]

8 hours ago, Litespeed said:

Many US orders will be from queue jumpers hoping to secure a place to sell later for a huge profit.

I think they thought they had too many of those which would dampen demand in the aftermath of a launch.. so they banned it.. but then I heard orders were starting to get cancelled, so they deleted the clause of the contract that prohibitied flipping within a year: https://www.autonews.com/sales/tesla-bans-reselling-cybertruck-then-reverses-course

 

6 hours ago, spacesailor said:

There's money in having a ' wanted car on order ' .

Indeed.. the trick is to be in the queue close enough to the top where the demand and lead times outweigh potential purchasers just placing their own orders and waiting.

[old man emu]

One would have to be a fool not to accept that at some time this century personal ground transport vehicles will be normal (assuming no WW3). However, this mad dash to make them universal within the next ten to fifteen years is illogical. The problem is not in the concept of the EV, but in the very basic infrastructure that is needed to support the use of an EV by the persons who need personal transport.

 

Consider that ogre with which we have lived for 125 years - the internal combustion engine powered vehicle. Early adopters were not Mr Everyman. The were the rich because of the cost of producing each vehicle.  However, the new toys of the rich were limited in usefulness because the infrastructure was not in place to provide the fuel they needed. Retail supplies of "Motor Spirit" could only be obtained in a few places, often pharmacies. Motor spirit was expensive. In 1913 the first drive-up service station, specifically designed to sell fuels and other related products was opened in Pittsburgh. Fuel sold for the then price of twenty-seven cents per gallon (7 cents/litre), equivalent to a modern $US6.50 per gallon ($1.71/litre).

 

While vehicle manufacturers worldwide managed to produce vehicles by the millions, but their power was low due to their low compression engines. It wasn't until 1923 that tetraethyl lead was introduced to motor spirit and that allowed for the development of higher compression engines. Even then, the compression ratio was not as high as modern engines. For example, the Daimler-Benz DB605 engine that powered the Bf109 used 87 octane fuel.

 

Having got a half-decent fuel, there came to need to build infrastructure to distribute it and retail it. By 2024 that seems to be sorted.

 

Now look at the EV. Manufacturers are pumping these out at rates that would leave old Henry Ford gobsmacked.  However, the "fuel  capacity" of EVs, while reasonably adequate for urban use, is restricted because the infrastructure to deliver it is inadequate. The scarcity of "refuelling points" is something that can be overcome relatively easily, however the problem is providing the "fuel". It's not the lack of wires, it is the capacity of those wires to meet the demand for electrons that are needed within the community that the refuelling point is located.

 

While these present difficulties are sure to be overcome, it is ridiculous to expect them to be resolved in the very short space of time that governments seem hell bent on setting. 

[octave]

1 hour ago, old man emu said:

However, this mad dash to make them universal within the next ten to fifteen years is illogical. The problem is not in the concept of the EV, but in the very basic infrastructure that is needed to support the use of an EV by the persons who need personal transport.

the adoption of the motor car was quite quick.

 

1913

 

Below 10 years later

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/transformation-can-you-spot-horse-ralph-torrie/

 

 

The notion that you must build enough charging stations BEFORE the beginning of the change is not what we have traditionally done.  The building of airports followed the need for airports.   Early petrol cars did not have a huge network of petrol outlets.  Using the logic of we should not transition to EVs before there is a fully developed charging network means that we rely on private enterprises to build networks that are not yet profitable or the government will have to build a network for the day when we need it.   The anti-EV crowd often uses this circular argument.   Don't build charging stations because there are not enough EVs Don't buy an EV because there are not enough charging stations.

 

It can be difficult to imagine the progress that is and will continue to be made.   When I first used the internet it was hard to imagine that we would be watching movies and some of us doing our jobs online. 

 

In 1903 the New York Times published an article predicting that it would be 1 to 10 million years before humans would develop a flying machine   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Machines_Which_Do_Not_Fly

 

You point out that in 1913 cars were for the rich and petrol was expensive.   I guess we could say that EVs are at this stage (although I would argue they are a little more developed than this)   Governments built roads and infrastructure for the car it wasn't just left to the open market.   I can't see that we are rushing the process, especially in this country.  There is an aspirational target of I think 2035 after which NEW ice vehicles will able to be sold however you and I can still buy second hand and in fact a new IC vehicle built in 2034 should by viable for many years. ICE will probably be the expensive option though.

1 hour ago, old man emu said:

Now look at the EV. Manufacturers are pumping these out at rates that would leave old Henry Ford gobsmacked. 

 

In 2023 8.4% of all new cars worldwide were EV not a huge figure.

 

 

1 hour ago, old man emu said:

 However, the "fuel  capacity" of EVs, while reasonably adequate for urban use, is restricted because the infrastructure to deliver it is inadequate.

I have driven around NZ in a Tesla, yes a smaller country but also notoriously hilly. Most small towns had a charging station as well as cafes and motels.   I do think NZ has progressed further than us on this.  On a recent road to Adelaide, we started counting Teslas because they seemed to be numerous.  Presumably, these vehicles were able to comfortably travel these distances without running out of electricity or bursting into flames.

1 hour ago, old man emu said:

While these present difficulties are sure to be overcome, it is ridiculous to expect them to be resolved in the very short space of time that governments seem hell bent on setting. 

Again 10 years is a long time in tech progress.   We have one of the slower transitions.   This means we can look to countries like Noway. In 2022 more than 80% of new cars were electric.  If there are widespread problems with the adoption of EVs we should be seeing it in countries that are ahead of us.

 

 

 

 

 

[old man emu]

8 minutes ago, octave said:

 

The notion that you must build enough charging stations BEFORE the beginning of the change is not what we have traditionally done. 

I've been misinterpreted again. What I intended to say was that at the beginning of the introduction of something new, the infrastructure to use it is not up to the demand that the new thing demands. However, as in all things, Demand drives Supply. Just look at the number of petrol stations that there are now compared to twenty years ago.

 

Here are the locations of servos in Dubbo. Many of these are relatively newly built.

Give it five to ten years and charging points will everywhere. 

 

There is a slight problem that has to be overcome in the supply of energy. Let's think about a fictitious small town that is supplied with electricity "delivered" to a depot from where it is connected to the electricity grid of the town. Consider the wires of the grid to be similar to water pipes. There is only so much water that can flow through the pipes, and that is dependent on the pressure. If everyone turns on a tap, the rate at which water flows out of the tap will fall. The same applies to electricity. You only have to look at "brownouts" that can occur during heatwaves. So if there are very many EVs in the town, the rate at which EVs can be recharged is going to be reduced. It is the recharge rate of EVs that, to me who has to travel long distances, that is the thing that will hold back the complete adoption of EVs. However, given time, that problem will be solved, mainly through battery technology developments.

[red750]

EV Charging Stations NSW  (4 in Dubbo)

 

[octave]

2 minutes ago, old man emu said:

There is a slight problem that has to be overcome in the supply of energy.

 

This is not a problem that is not being anticipated.

 

Yes, the grid can handle electric vehicle charging – even when demand spikes

 

https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2022/2023-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios-consultation/supporting-materials-for-2023/csiro-2022-electric-vehicles-projections-report.pdf

 

It would be difficult to transition to all EV tomorrow and I would not favour this.  The grid grows with demand.    Sprawling new suburbs are constantly being built and the supply grows and becomes more efficient.   More and more rooftop solar and other means of generation are constantly being added to the grid..  Again consider Norway, yes it has heaps of hydro but in terms of the grid and wiring and such it has the same limitations as our grid except it probably has progressed more because it is more forward-looking

 

EVs also present advantages in grid management In Europe fleet operators will be able to buy electricity when it is cheap, store it in their vehicles, and sell some of it back when prices peak. 

 

https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/analysis/vehicle-grid-pilot-schemes-gather-pace?a=JMA06&t[0]=Nissan&t[1]=EDF&curl=1

 

Even in Australia, things are happening

 

Australia’s capital goes live with V2G technology after 2-year trial

 

 

 

 

 

[octave]

5 minutes ago, red750 said:

EV Charging Stations NSW  (4 in Dubbo)

 

 

 

I count 8 List of ev stations in dubbo nsw

[red750]

I just expanded the map and counted the red dots.

[facthunter]

For a long time in the USA, good roads only went to the edge of town.  Sydney had electric trolley buses in the 50's and an electric train system that was ahead of it's time. there's more than enough solar in the centre to NOT need a  grid system there  The quickest  to respond is Battery and Pumped hydro.   Nev

[old man emu]

Here's an interesting further effect of EVs. You might call it the "Obesity Factor"

 

 

And here is the link to the article referenced in the video https://www.structuremag.org/?page_id=26136 Use the page slider to go to Page 38.

[octave]

We discussed weight earlier.  I know you see this as an airtight case against EVs but it is not.

 

The firstly where is the evidence?  

 

"According to the British Parking Association, no UK car parks have banned electric cars. They said that “there was no evidence to show that the weight of electric cars is an issue. While we recognise that large cars with bigger, more expensive batteries weigh more, this issue is not specific to electric cars.”

 

Will Electric Cars Collapse Multi-Story Car Parks (Parking Garages)?

 

In a previous video, you posted by this guy was mourning the end of the Bentley W12, I am not so familiar with but it does sound heavy. 

 

If there was a problem then the solution is simple. We restrict the weight of cars permitted to enter car parks.    You would surely just set a weight limit?  It does not matter whether the weight of a car is made up of a battery or a V8 engine.

 

I find it interesting how passionate people are in their total condemnation of this technology.    

 

The pace of change in this country is very slow.  The time frame for phasing out IC vehicles is quite long.    

 

Whilst there are solid arguments for different folks not to get an EV at this point there is nothing to get hysterical about.  Dont like EVs then don't buy one.   The problem is these folks don't want anyone to buy one.  As far as change goes this is quite a slow one.   Trying to kill off technological change because change feels a little uncomfortable is unfair to the coming generations.

 

It seems to me that the folks who bag every aspect of EVs are either

 

-in the IC car or fuel industry 

-believe it is about politics (weird as if only hippies buy cyber trucks)

- just anxious about anything changing.

 

Just to be clear I am not saying everyone should go out and buy one. We are still in the early adopter phase This has been the case with most technologies.   I am not in the market for a car so it is not an issue for me in the foreseeable future but if I needed to buy it is the way I would probably go. By nature, I am an early adopter and I relish change and innovation.  To me only looking back and not forward would be depressing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[onetrack]

The stories are a bit of a beat-up. Virtually all cars have steadily been getting heavier since the 1990's, despite manufacturers claiming they're using lightweight and high-tech materials to build them.

The problem is, the bodies and drivetrains and chassis' have been losing some weight in construction - but buyers want all the "options", and all the safety equipment - so that puts all the weight back on, and more. 

A 200 Series Landcruiser weighs 3 tonnes, and even a Prado weighs nearly 2.5 tonnes. 4WD's make up a large proportion of vehicles in car parks.

[old man emu]

2 hours ago, octave said:

I find it interesting how passionate people are in their total condemnation of this technology. 

[red750]

I see where Sweden has developed a method of recharging an EV as it drives down the road with a special road surface. The road looks like a bus lane, but naturally, it is coloured green.

[octave]

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/sweden-will-build-worlds-first-ev-charging-road

[Jerry_Atrick]

In most technological product lifecycles, there are early adopters and once the word spreads and the tech becomes cheaper or more accessible, mainstream adoption takes place. I don't think the developed world deployed a network or petrol stations across the country before widespread adoption of the ICE engine. There may be practical engineering barriers to overcome, but usually market forces work out a demand and then move to fill it.

 

The adoption of EVs in Australia has been slower than it should have been largely thanks to the previous government. Therefore, the deployment of the infrastructure, which reacts to demand has also been slow. But as more EVs take to the roads, assuming they continue to do so, then so too will infrastructure be deployed  to meet the demand and if EV sales grow at the cost of ICE sales, then you can bet your bottom dollar thee will come a time where getting the fuel for your ICE engine is not going to be easy.

 

Over here, one of he good things about BoJo was that he was driving (ardon the pub) more eco-firendly policies... I think it iwas part of the reason we was booted because it did upset the more right leaning part of the party which holds a lot of power (again, pardon the pun) at the moment. The adoption o EVs and hyrdogen vehicles accelerated (the latter not so much)... and although the Murdoch and other right-leaning news outlets complain ther is no infrastrucutre, those that own EVs that I know say it does not reflect reality. Two things that surprised me though are a) that they additional drag at motorway speeds greatly reduces the range, seemingly by a factor greater than the square of the difference in speeds; and b) those who do provide the infrastructure on the motorway servies are as price gouging as the petrol/diesel to the point that the reduction in range combine with the increase in per kw/h electricty price makes touring almost expesiive with fuel as ICE engines.

 

But, it should not be surprising.. all costs with a young tech are always more expensive until the products mature, new competitors enter the market and patents expire.

[kgwilson]

My car has a WLTP range of 435km. I don't get that much as I don't drive it the way they work out that range. I do get about 390 - 400km though and that is at motorway speed on the Pacific highway (110kmh). The ambient temperature does affect the range too which is why there is a battery heater to keep the range up and is also used during charging. The range indicator in the car adjusts to your driving style and becomes surprisingly accurate over a few hundred km. This is affectionately called the guessOmeter. If you reset it it will go back to the original values until it gets some more real time data to work out the real world range.

 

There are cable less battery chargers available now too. It requires a wireless charging pad to be installed on the underside of the car and another on your garage floor so you just drive in till the system says stop, get out and the car begins to charge. Just a bigger version of wireless charging of a mobile phone really.

[spacesailor]

I just read about Canberra   having EV charging the grid ! .

At Night ,

Does that mean when the owner /driver needs to get to work the following morning that car ' will need recharging at the 

Day rate , instead of the lower night rate .

Or am I getting something wrong. Again .

spacesailor 

[facthunter]

You can sign up for a deal where they take some at a very high rate of return to you when it's urgent for short periods. On and OFF peak don't mean much now. It's fast availability. Battery is milliseconds.  Nev

[octave]

25 minutes ago, spacesailor said:

I just read about Canberra   having EV charging the grid ! .

At Night ,

 

I think that the grid draws small amounts from many EVs during the peak time say between  6 PM and 9 PM.   After this time electricity demand drops and there is a surplus meaning the price drops.    At this point, the EV can charge at a lower cost ready for the next day.

 

 

 

Edited January 7 by octave

[red750]