Electric car thread

[onetrack]

There is still an underlying problem with EV's - and that is the fact that the manufacturers, especially Tesla, want their EV's to be just another disposable electronic device, like a mobile phone.

They are doing nothing to ensure that their EV's have a long lifespan.

 

The simple fact remains that a good IC-engine vehicle is good for a 25 year lifespan (barring mechanical disasters) - but the average EV is essentially scrap after 10 years.

They are not made to last, simply because of the huge level of cheap electronics in them - not to mention the battery that is toast at 10 years.

 

We've all seen how late model IC-engined cars are scrapped when they have a major electronics/ECU failure - when the repair/replacement cost of the failed item exceeds the depreciated value of the car.

It's all very well to say, "Oh, but all of the EV is recyclable! - so that makes it all worthwhile!". However, there's just one big fly in the ointment there.

 

Hardly a single recycling setup - no matter what they're recycling - ever pays its way. Virtually every recycling operation must receive huge Govt subsidies to continue their operations.

This applies to nearly every currently recycled item - be it plastic, cardboard, tyres, batteries. The only recycling that actually pays is metals recycling - and even then, the metals must be in sizeable volume before any metals recycler is even interested in taking it.

The W.A. Govt alone is currently handing out $70M annually to recycling operations - in the form of straight-out grants, free land and various other subsidies. It's a hidden cost to all Australians.

 

There is hardly any lithium battery recycling being carried out at present - despite the massive volume of batteries being produced and in use. Only around 6% of lithium batteries are recycled.

Ecobatt is the only battery recycler operating in Australia, and I currently have no idea of how they're funded, or what it costs to recycle batteries - but I'll wager that they get subsidised in some form.

 

https://www.ecobatt.net/expired-electric-car-batteries-set-to-be-a-major-problem/

[kgwilson]

1 hour ago, old man emu said:

A comment like that is a clear indication that you did not watch the video. Raising that point by Evans is completely irrelevant to Atkinson's comments. It smacks of a snide comment in Question Time. Sure, Atkinson is well known to the public through his career in entertainment. In fact Atkinson was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire in the 2013 Birthday Honours for services to drama and charity.

 

Remember that Atkinson got into comedy while he studying  at uni. After receiving top grades in science A levels,he secured a place at Newcastle University, where he received a BSc degree in Electrical and Electronic Engineering in 1975. He subsequently obtained an MSc degree in Electrical Engineering at The Queen's College, Oxford in 1975. His master's thesis, published in 1978, considered the application of self-tuning control.

 

Can your Simon Evans match those qualifications? Better still, who the hell is this Evans bloke? Atkinson may have published in an Anti EV tabloid, but the video I posted outlined the connections Evans has with some interesting organisations. Evans is from a website called Carbon Brief, is a UK-based website covering the latest developments in climate science, climate policy and energy policy. We specialise in clear, data-driven articles and graphics to help improve the understanding of climate change, both in terms of the science and the policy response. Which is supported by  European Climate Foundation, which provides our funding. In the spirit of transparency, this funding totalled £1,176,376 for the financial year of 2022. Do I detect a few parts per million of bias?

 

Did Atkinson bag electric vehicles? Hardly at all. He seems to be all for EVs in congested urban areas where travel distances are short, but traffic flow is slow, leading to unnecessary emission of combustion products. Did Atkinson champion alternative combustible fuels? Not so much champion, but acknowledge that they were a possibility with further research.

 

What Atkinson pointed out was that the EV isn't economically viable if people adopt a throw-away mentality to cars by turning them over after a very short period of three years. You'll say that the expected serviceable life of an EV battery is 10 years. I'll go along with that. So what Atkinson is saying is that if you buy any vehicle, no matter what the power source is, don't ditch it in three years. It is better for the environment to use the resources that went into making the vehicle for as long as possible. That, is a convoluted way, is sequestering carbon by not having to use, let's say, the same amount twice more over the ten-year life of the vehicle.

 

However, keeping vehicles for a long period, not matter what power source, seems to be anathema to the European Union which now wants to ban the repair of any vehicle more than 15 years old.

 

 

 

firstly, no I did not watch the video you posted just the original before it was behind the paywall over 6 months ago. Secondly I don't know who Simon Evans is so he is NOT "My Simon Evans" whatever that is supposed to imply.

 

There were many errors and "Stop Burning Stuff" a subsidiary of Fully Charged who have just run the Electrify Everything show in Sydney have been correcting these since that time with verified facts. It has been adequately demonstrated by SBS that the Anti EV lobby cherry picked statements from Atkinsons video and have reposted them everywhere much to the delight of the fossil fuel industry. Since the original clip was published it has been modified several times to straighten up facts Like "batteries last 10 years" to batteries last upward of 10 years.

 

In 2024 the best batteries are produced by CATL & BYD both Chinese and their NMC & LFP batteries are slated to last 20 years or even more, by which time most vehicles will be scrapped. Tesla is now using both BYD & CATL batteries as the US has not been able to keep up with these manufacturers and the legacy auto makes there have produced some very ordinary EVs (Tesla excepted) & they are not selling many. The CATL battery in my EV should last 1 million km with the battery management software installed by SAIC in my car. That is 50 years at the rate I drive but the car will be toast well before then. Also i will be well dead by then.

Edited February 16 by kgwilson

[spacesailor]

Do you ' have ' to do a conversion course for an E V .

Similar to.

Converting to , " manual " from Automatic car licence .

Lots of talk of " short trip " , city driving .

But . Isn't that what " public transport " is for ! .

Outer suburbia,  an hour or two . In the ratrace. Thousands of ' polluting I C motors ' crawling along those three & four lane highways,  are the right place for EV's

Who can calculate the pollution ? .

One small IC ,X, 2,000 rpm= 2,000 litres of exhaust gas.

Times one convoy of 1,000 ,  times three lanes .

Times tens of thousands per hour .

Sorry " it must be my nightmare " . LoL

spacesailor

 

 

 

 

[kgwilson]

54 minutes ago, onetrack said:

There is still an underlying problem with EV's - and that is the fact that the manufacturers, especially Tesla, want their EV's to be just another disposable electronic device, like a mobile phone.

They are doing nothing to ensure that their EV's have a long lifespan.

 

The simple fact remains that a good IC-engine vehicle is good for a 25 year lifespan (barring mechanical disasters) - but the average EV is essentially scrap after 10 years.

They are not made to last, simply because of the huge level of cheap electronics in them - not to mention the battery that is toast at 10 years.

 

We've all seen how late model IC-engined cars are scrapped when they have a major electronics/ECU failure - when the repair/replacement cost of the failed item exceeds the depreciated value of the car.

It's all very well to say, "Oh, but all of the EV is recyclable! - so that makes it all worthwhile!". However, there's just one big fly in the ointment there.

 

Hardly a single recycling setup - no matter what they're recycling - ever pays its way. Virtually every recycling operation must receive huge Govt subsidies to continue their operations.

This applies to nearly every currently recycled item - be it plastic, cardboard, tyres, batteries. The only recycling that actually pays is metals recycling - and even then, the metals must be in sizeable volume before any metals recycler is even interested in taking it.

The W.A. Govt alone is currently handing out $70M annually to recycling operations - in the form of straight-out grants, free land and various other subsidies. It's a hidden cost to all Australians.

 

There is hardly any lithium battery recycling being carried out at present - despite the massive volume of batteries being produced and in use. Only around 6% of lithium batteries are recycled.

Ecobatt is the only battery recycler operating in Australia, and I currently have no idea of how they're funded, or what it costs to recycle batteries - but I'll wager that they get subsidised in some form.

 

https://www.ecobatt.net/expired-electric-car-batteries-set-to-be-a-major-problem/

1. Batteries manufactured from 2022 by BYD & CATL are likely to last 20 years not 10. That is old outdated information.

2. All modern vehicles from tiny minicars to the biggest trucks are full of electronics and the cost of replacement outweighs the value of the vehicle even if it's ICE engine is still running. The thing is it won't run without these electronics so it is only useful as scrap.

3. It is true that there are few battery recycling plants. There are none in Australia that are capable of recycling EV batteries to my knowledge. The thing is none are needed at present. In the early years of car manufacture in the late 1800s to early 1900s there weren't any engine mechanics either. New technologies don't come with end to end processes when first released.

4. Much of the reason why there are no recycling plants is because there are hardly any EV batteries available for recycling. The early Teslas and Nissan leafs had pretty small batteries by todays standards and while some have been replaced, the old batteries have found new homes in houses or commercial buildings as most have about 80% of their capacity left. The only batteries that are scrapped are those that have been severely damaged in a car crash. Even many of the cells in these are able to be re-used. In the UK & Europe there are a number of "Black Mass" recycling facilities. The batteries are ground up and the individual minerals extracted so lithium, cobalt, manganese etc are recovered for reuse. Even so there are many 10 year plus old Teslas & Nissan Leafs still running perfectly well on their original battery.

 

Recycling of lithium batteries is a growing problem. Almost all phones and electronic devices, power tools, electric bikes, scooters etc use lithium batteries and they do not have sophisticated battery management software just charging limit functions. They often get thrown in the rubbish rather than being taken to the shops where recycling bins are. Once rubbish is crushed so are the batteries and if there is sufficient charge left in them a short circuit will very quickly turn in to a thermal runaway with an ensuing fire. There needs to be government funding to get on top of this as the numerous minor fires will end up being massive eventually. The worst seem to be small lithium battery powered bicycles, scooters etc and it usually stems from ignorance where they are incorrectly charged, the wrong type of charger is used or some other user induced factor.

Edited February 16 by kgwilson

[octave]

38 minutes ago, onetrack said:

The simple fact remains that a good IC-engine vehicle is good for a 25 year lifespan (barring mechanical disasters) - but the average EV is essentially scrap after 10 years.

They are not made to last, simply because of the huge level of cheap electronics in them - not to mention the battery that is toast at 10 years.

Whoah there this bold assertion needs a bit of evidence.   Firstly why do you assert that the electronics that EV manufacturers use are cheap and shoddy? Please provide some evidence for this.  As for batteries being toast after 10 years this is also a dubious claim. 

 

New Study: How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Last?

 

How Long Do EV Batteries Last? New Research Suggests It's Way Longer Than You Might Think

 

Electric Car Batteries Lasting Longer Than Predicted Delays Recycling Programs

 

I could go on.

 

 

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

There is still an underlying problem with EV's - and that is the fact that the manufacturers, especially Tesla, want their EV's to be just another disposable electronic device, like a mobile phone.

They are doing nothing to ensure that their EV's have a long lifespan.

Do you have intimate knowledge of Teslas construction methods? Are Teslas failing at a high rate? Are early Teslaa being scrapped at a great rate?   What evidence is that they "do nothing to ensure that their EVs have a long lifespan."   It sounds like you could give me some particular examples of inadequate parts etc.

 

A YouTube channel I follow is Sandy Monro who tears down vehicles from many manufacturers and advises on how they can improve,  You can watch him tearing down various Teslas. In the early days, he was pretty scathing but is impressed with how they are now manufactured. He will call out things he considers to be poor engineering

 

 

 

 

42 minutes ago, onetrack said:

Hardly a single recycling setup - no matter what they're recycling - ever pays its way. Virtually every recycling operation must receive huge Govt subsidies to continue their operations.

 

Should we not recycle anything? Perhaps just dump everything in a landfill. I would not be surprised if landfill disposal was subsidized.   There are successful recycling plants such as Redwood in the US. It is a fact that the components of batteries have some value and where there is value there is incentive.   The crusty old EV haters will often say that the raw materials for EV and phone batteries etc will become scarce. This is where a circular economy comes in. A company like Tesla or any other EV company is only viable if it can build its own or source batteries from outside.   It makes sense to get more recycling up and running or the business will fail due to materials shortages.

 

You have suggested (incorrectly) that EV batteries only last 10 years.  Given that EVs have only been sold in Australia for just a little over 10 years and in the early years sales figures were low, there is simply not the volume of clapped-out batteries to sustain the recycling industry.  it is somewhat different in Europe the US and China.

 

One of the biggest battery recycling plants in the US is up and running

 

 

There is immaturity in EV recycling is mostly because of the lack of end-of-life batteries.  

 

Then there are second life uses.  If you confidently assert that EV batteries are toast after 10 years then why are there examples of second-life projects?

 

 

 

 

 

Even by your extremely pessimistic estimation of battery life, you must surely admit that there would be few batteries having reached total end of life. I would love to get my hands on one to use as a home battery but extremely hard to find.

 

 

I suspect that for some of the anti-EV crowd, it has more to do with anxiety about change.  Look if EV are just a totally crap idea they will fail to replace IC cars.   If EVs are all failing at 10 years (they are not) and if landfill are overflowing with old dead batteries people will reject them.   I do not think that will happen but I guess we will just have to revisit this topic every year or so for the next ten years to see what happens. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[octave]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[facthunter]

The LEAD in the ICE car batteries seems to be being recycled. ANY short life white goods or cars should have a longer life than 5 years But dealers don't want cars with over 150,000 kms on them. Council fleets often never change the oil. They get the same price regardless when they turn them over. The accountants decide that. Hire car fleets get things cheap and don't keep them long. Usually less than 50.000. kms.  Nev

[octave]

 

 

[onetrack]

Well, here's a few extended reads for you, as regards Tesla build quality woes ....

 

I always keep uppermost in mind that the bloke behind Tesla design and production is a pretty dislikeable, arrogant, divisive, and ruthless character.

 

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/

 

https://www.topspeed.com/10-most-common-problems-with-new-tesla-evs/#autopilot-failures-and-power-steering-issues-can-be-life-threatening

 

https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/11/20/tesla-model-3-fault-rate-is-the-highest-of-any-car-report/

 

https://www.hotcars.com/problems-with-tesla-nobody-talks-about/#replacing-old-batteries-is-a-hassle

 

Edited February 16 by onetrack

[kgwilson]

I read about the Nevada Gigafactory 2 years after it came on line in 2017 with the built in recycling plant. By early 2020 they hadn't recycled any batteries other than their own modules that had not made the grade. Seems like that is pretty much still the case. Now most of Teslas new batteries are being made by BYD & CATL. The Chinese are now firmly out in front in battery technology.

[octave]

Onetrack your post was mostly about EVs and batteries. As a car builder, Tesla is a little on the immature side.   I am aware of some of the problems. My son owns a Tesla and is a car person. He finds some of the engineering absolutely brilliant and is left scratching his head as to why they made some of the engineering choices they made but he still loves it.

 

 This is not evidence that EVs are dumb and piston engines are the way to go for all eternity.  Car companies often suck. 

 

Why are the anti-EV crowd frothing with excitement if an EV catches fire (often it is not actually an EV - Lutton?) but don't seem to express similar concern when it doesn't fit their culture war narrative?

 

US probes Hyundai, Kia recall into 6.4 million vehicles over fire risks and for the record, these are NOT EVs

 

For the record, if I were to buy an EV now ir would be a BYD or and MG like @kgwilson not a Tesla

 

Now about those EV batteries going to landfill.

 

 

This is the kind of progressive forward-thinking we need.

 

Australian made second-life EV battery system to be tested on New Zealand grid

 

 

[kgwilson]

6 minutes ago, onetrack said:

Well, here's a few extended reads for you, as regards Tesla build quality woes ....

 

I always keep uppermost in mind that the bloke behind Tesla design and production is a pretty dislikeable, arrogant, divisive, and ruthless character.

 

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/

 

https://www.topspeed.com/10-most-common-problems-with-new-tesla-evs/#autopilot-failures-and-power-steering-issues-can-be-life-threatening

 

https://cleanenergyrevolution.co/2023/11/20/tesla-model-3-fault-rate-is-the-highest-of-any-car-report/

Tesla is no different from any other car manufacturer in that they have produced some models with faults that require recalls or repairs. Tesla though is always at the bleeding edge of technological advancement so problems will occur. I looked at a Model 3 and drove one. It is so different to any car I'd ever driven with a screen in the middle & nothing in front of the driver and electronics that did everything. The new model doesn't even have indicator stalks and things like having to use the touch screen to open the glove box seem odd even though they have a security purpose. The audio system even has 17 speakers. The earlier model only had 14. Lots of over the top stuff & futuristic technology.

 

It was a lot flashier than my eventual choice, the MG4 but in my opinion not a drivers car whereas the MG drives like a sports car, plus the Tesla was an extra 15 grand.

 

Lots of faults aside, Teslas are very popular and the Model Y is the largest selling car in the world beating all others ICE & EV. It is the first vehicle to topple  Corolla for the last 22 years. Add to that it is also the biggest car company in the world by market capitalisation. Tesla must be doing something right to arrive at number 1 so quickly.

[Jerry_Atrick]

What Tesla is doing right is PR... Well, not Tesla, but Musk.Despite his obviousl flaws as a character, he has a bigger fan base than Trump; if he were to run for president, dog help us all. But, thankfully, being president is not worth his time, whereas Trump uses it to enrich himself and prop his ailing corporations up. (OK that may be a stretch.. but Trump is no business man by himself).

 

Mass production of cars is now over 100 years old; Engineering and science has advanced exponentially since then, yet all typesd and makes of cars have design and quality issues. This is partly because bean counters have a say in production and engineering decision (those bottom end bolts in the engones used on early model Navara utes comes to mind), and because to keep in the game, one has to produce new tech and features, yet not materially increease the price of the car.. and make a profit. Something has to give.

[facthunter]

The explosions and high temps and force reversals,   complexity and low efficiency make the ICE engine the one to have to justify as well as the expensive power loss making transmission and bad polluting   aspects. The electric motor is about 3x as efficient and IS regenerative. It's really a NO BRAINER. Its VIBRATIONLESS and QUIET too with NO rustaway exhaust system and minimum service costs.  Nev

[onetrack]

But the electric motor is only one part of what is a very complex combination of many interoperational and important other components. And it's not just the battery, it's the body construction, the platform with the suspension and wheels, and all the interacting vehicle systems that are required and deemed desirable by owners, that make up the car in its entirety.

 

Tesla is only just now, starting to mature as a vehicle manufacturer. But they have built up a "fan club" of Tesla-bois, who want and can afford the latest and greatest technology.

The same thing happened in the early 1900's. I can recall my Dad telling me how a wealthy bloke in his birth city of Portsmouth, owned no less than SEVEN cars when he was a child, before WW1. Those cars would have been eye-opening wonders in their day - they'd be noisy, slow, unreliable contraptions by our measures today.

 

But the bloke obviously had enough moola to splurge on the latest motor cars that took his fancy. Most Tesla owners today fall into the same category - very wealthy, keen to get into "cutting edge" motoring technology, caring little about longevity (or even the build quality) of the product (most would be company leased, or salary sacrifice deals, anyway), and happy to pass on a low-km Tesla to any other sucker prepared to buy a used Tesla, with all its attendant problems.

[Jerry_Atrick]

11 hours ago, onetrack said:

very wealthy, keen to get into "cutting edge" motoring technology, caring little about longevity (or even the build quality) of the product

There are a lot of these in all sorts of tech verticals - they are called early adopters. Look at colour TV.. By the time it even came to Australia it was close the the second generation of technology, yet people paid back in the late 70's,, I think, many thousands of dollars, which then was a king's ransom to have one. Yet their pictue quality was very ordinary. The family of a friend in my street paid around $1,500. According to this site (https://www.inflationtool.com/australian-dollar/1979-to-present-value), in 1979 (I am guessing that is when my friend's family bought their TV), $100 back then is worth almost %587 now.. The  $1500, spent then is $8,970 now.. And they were not a wealthy family - single parent working (admitedly in a time where the cost of living was affordable), and he was a prison guard at Pentridge.. And I am guessing of mid-seniority. But that family loved their gadgets even back then.

 

Build quality plagues established manufacturers.. EVs are a complex platform and I think that, apart from vanity projects like the Cybertruck, where owners are complaining about rust on stainless steel panels, Tesla engineers have produced a car that is not worse in build quality thanm many establiished manufactureres, arguable, have descended into in the pursit of as much margin as they can squeeze.

 

If I buy another new car (or near new car), a Tesla will be in the mix...

[kgwilson]

The only real difference between an EV & an ICE car is the propulsion system and the fuel. The electric motor or motors are very simple by comparison including the transmission to rotate the wheels, make hardly any noise are way more efficient and virtually free of vibration.

 

The battery is heavy but keeps the CofG low so road handing and weight distribution can be as close to perfect as possible. This is true for the MG 4 and some other RWD EVs. A large percentage of current EVs began their life as an ICE car so carry over that baggage and many are front wheel drive so there has to be a compromise.

 

There is a lot of talk about the cost and that only the wealthy can afford an EV (more specifically a Tesla). This as now old news and todays fish and chip paper. Tesla have reduced the prices across the range and they are more competitive with other quality brands. Almost all legacy car makers have a number of EV models in their lineup now. There are more than 300 EV manufacturers in China alone which is more than the rest of the world put together.

 

The market analysts were predicting that EV and ICE vehicle prices would merge by 2025. This has already happened, just not in Australia. But the base model MG4, GWM Ora and BYD Dolphin are all sub 40k vehicles. They are all very good cars so the ethos that EVs are for the wealthy has well and truly gone, just not in the minds of EV knockers.

[onetrack]

KGW - Well, the Chinese EV's you mention have only been on the market here for a couple of years, so I don't know how you can claim "they are all very good cars" - when it takes at least around a decade of regular use, and time on the market, to establish reliability. Many owner reports are that the Chinese cars still have a long way to go, to match Japanese car reliability and build quality.

 

https://www.whatcar.com/mg-motor-uk/mg4/hatchback/used-review/n26329/reliability

[facthunter]

 Another article under the same banner gives the 1024  small electric car of the year to....... wait for it.... the MG4 EV SE. My son who is a REAL car nut doesn't like how the ICE MG drives. .  Another person I deal with bought two (His and Hers) at a discount but won't be buying one again.  The Chinese build stuff for a lot of the popular brands that are regarded as top quality by many.  Nev

[old man emu]

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The only real difference between an EV & an ICE car is the propulsion system and the fuel.

That is so true. Although, an idea in the way that the power is applied to the tyre/surface interface might change in the future, is that idea of having a motor in each wheel if it proves to be efficient.

 

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The battery is heavy

To me, that is the a technical problem that, given our experience of technology over the past 100 years, is sure to be solved. Remember that 100 years ago, electric cars used lead/acid batteries and we know how heavy they are. Also that sort of battery has a much shorter useful life compared to the claimed useful life of Li-ion batteries. I don't want to debate the term "claimed" because I'm willing to accept 10 years.

 

4 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

not worse in build quality than many established manufacturers,

You have to search far and wide for a vehicle manufacturer whose product can sell itself on build quality.

 

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

There are more than 300 EV manufacturers in China

One must be careful about why there are so many manufacturers in China. You must remember that their idea of economic management is based initially on 100% employment of those available for employment. Therefore it would be logical for the government to subsidise people to carry out "make work" to keep them occupied rather than pay "sit down" money as we tend to do. And there is a wicked Capitalist saying that "no one makes a dollar until something is sold". How true the images of acres of stockpiled EVs in China are, I don't know. But I do know that while they sit there they haven't earned a yuan.

 

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The market analysts were predicting that EV and ICE vehicle prices would merge by 2025.

There are disturbing rumours that the sales of EVs are approaching a plateau, which is not unusual. If you look at the ICE types, you will find that there are plateaux there too. Each type of vehicle has a usage niche, and once the numerical requirement for that niche has been reached, future sales depend mainly on replacement of vehicles that have reached their use by date, or have otherwise become unusable through collisions. The US market  for EVs in the pick up category seems to have been met and now Ford and GM are drastically cutting back on production. Getting burned with EVs in that category (allegedly Ford's losing $36,000 per F-150) seems to have made them hesitant to get into the small to mid-sized personal, urban EV market, which is, to my thinking, the niche for EVs.

 

I think that 2024 will be a most interesting year in the vehicle manufacturing year. I look forward to returning to this thread on Valentine's Day 2025 to review 2024.

[gareth lacey]

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The only real difference between an EV & an ICE car is the propulsion system and the fuel. The electric motor or motors are very simple by comparison including the transmission to rotate the wheels, make hardly any noise are way more efficient and virtually free of vibration.

 

The battery is heavy but keeps the CofG low so road handing and weight distribution can be as close to perfect as possible. This is true for the MG 4 and some other RWD EVs. A large percentage of current EVs began their life as an ICE car so carry over that baggage and many are front wheel drive so there has to be a compromise.

 

There is a lot of talk about the cost and that only the wealthy can afford an EV (more specifically a Tesla). This as now old news and todays fish and chip paper. Tesla have reduced the prices across the range and they are more competitive with other quality brands. Almost all legacy car makers have a number of EV models in their lineup now. There are more than 300 EV manufacturers in China alone which is more than the rest of the world put together.

 

The market analysts were predicting that EV and ICE vehicle prices would merge by 2025. This has already happened, just not in Australia. But the base model MG4, GWM Ora and BYD Dolphin are all sub 40k vehicles. They are all very good cars so the ethos that EVs are for the wealthy has well and truly gone, just not in the minds of EV knockers.

Try telling tgat to some pensioners they will never have a electric vehicle im self funded and cannot afford one

[old man emu]

Let's face it. Most of us discussing this matter here are of an age where their present vehicle is likely to outlast either their permission to drive or they themselves. Those who might be in a financial position to roll over their vehicles after a short time might now add their own life expectancy to the economic analysis decision making mix to determine if a new vehicle is a viable outlay.

 

On the question of economics, my daughter recently had twins. As a consequence of needing to consider transport requirements, she got rid of her sedan and obtained an SUV on a five year lease. Her logic was that an SUV was better for loading and unloading the kids until they started school, by which time they would be capable of accessing their seats themselves and the amount of baby stuff she needed in the first few years would be gone. I don't think that there was a suitably sized EV SUV that made economic sense to obtain under a lease arrangement. I believe that the leasing cost for the SUV was less than that for her sedan, but the sedan was a Jaguar.

[octave]

29 minutes ago, old man emu said:

There are disturbing rumours that the sales of EVs are approaching a plateau, which is not unusual

 

Adoption of anything new tends to follow the "adoption curve"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle

 

 

I believe we are most likely well into the early adopters stage.   There is a point between early adopters and the early majority known as the chasm. This is where the market from innovators and early adopters has been satisfied but not enough early majorities are ready to buy.   We built an off-grid solar house in 1990. The technology was pretty primitive compared to today.   In the early 80s we were early adopters of the home PC

.

This adoption curve can be applied to just about any new tech.

 

The innovators and early adopters are extremely important.  I suspect that many people looked at early aircraft and scoffed, but there were enough innovators and early adopters to drive the technology forward.  At the moment I would suggest that the EV could still be characterized as an enthusiast's car.   I do believe though we are on the cusp of breaking through to the early majority buyers.

 

Whatever the next few years hold I am pretty confident that cars will be driven by electric motors because the efficiency between a reciprocating engine and an electric motor is chalk and cheese (80% vs 20%)  The question is how will we power those motors. At the moment we have battery and hydrogen fuel cell.   Technology develops fast. 

 

The petrol car has come an amazing way since the first cars hit the roads.     Whilst the modern petrol or diesel car is a modern marvel it has problems that are hard to solve.  The fuel has to go through a costly and complex journey from the other side of the world and through an energy-hungry refining process and what comes out of the exhaust.   Electric vehicles are versatile in that there are so many ways to generate electricity.

 

I do sometimes wonder what we are actually arguing about here. It seems to have devolved into "EVs are sh1t" "No they aren't EVs are great"      I don't usually post here in an EVangelical way. I nearly always post as a reaction to a statement I know to be suspect such as can/are EV batteries being recycled or reused, yeas they can and are.

 

I would never suggest anyone rush out and buy an EV if it does not suit them.  It would suit me except it is not economically viable at this point.  This is changing as is the case with pretty much every piece of technology.    People will often express concern about bans on the sales of new IC cars I think really they do not have much to worry about.  If EVs are the disaster some people suggest then the chickens will come home to roost and cars will be bursting into flames everywhere the grid will be exploding etc. etc. etc. and those restrictions will probably never happen. I do believe that given the falling price of EVs (just look at the price reductions on Teslas) and competition that a ban wont be necessary because EV will be the cheaper choice. people will vote with their wallets. 

 

 

[kgwilson]

The US EV market is a disaster. Tesla has just kept on doing what it does and has the top selling car in the world. The government wanted to change the new vehicle landscape to help meet its emissions target so there were huge subsidies given to US auto manufacturers to produce EVs so they did. Many were vehicles the US public didn't want and a lot were pretty ordinary with many faults. EVs began piling up at dealerships and sales were slow. Then some 3000 dealers sent a letter to Biden saying they couldn't sell EVs for a variety of reasons but omitting one major issue, lack of required regular maintenance so reduced income for them as most manufacturers subsidise the capped price servicing etc during the warranty period. Sounds like a solution searching for a problem with a hurriedly cobbled together scheme with more holes than a Swiss cheese. Reminds me of the Pink Batts disaster here back in the early 2000s

 

So there are masses of unsold US manufactured EVs (except Teslas) everywhere. The US won't allow imported EVs from China but do get European EVs.

 

As for Chinese EVs most will never be seen anywhere but in China. My car is Chinese built but British Engineered and designed & has had rave review world wide. A local motoring critic was quite scathing of the Chinese made MGs and rated the driving dynamics from below average to positively woeful. His comments were that the MG4 was like a car from a completely different company. Build quality is definitely not British as it is excellent with everything feeling solid and well fitted together. Some reviewers have said better than some Mercedes models. The MG4 is also the 2024 UK car of the year and that is against all comers, & also Car Sales Australia Car of the year.

 

The Chinese now own brands like Volvo and have joint ventures with Mercedes and BMW and use European designers. China overtook Japan last year as the worlds largest exporter of cars.

 

Battery longevity is something there will never be agreement on. There is always anecdotal evidence of poor battery performance & longevity just as there is proof of early model Teslas having travelled more that 500,000 miles (800,000km) on the original battery and are still going well. As for weight well my car weighs 1670kg which is not a lot more than the equivalent ICE car and a lot less than most SUVs and pretty much every Ute.

Edited February 17 by kgwilson

[old man emu]

50 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

There is always anecdotal evidence of poor battery performance & longevity

To be fair, premature failure also can and does occur with ICEs. I once had a Mitsubishi Colt (Strewth! That was 40 years ago!). It kept jumping out of top gear under a bit of load. Back and forth to the dealer without cure until a factory rep ordered a tear down of the gearbox. The cause was that something simple like a space on a shaft had been installed back to front.

 

It seems that, for the most part, it is only the batteries in EVs that seem to be the source of reported failures. The rest of these vehicle seem to be as well made as any ICE.