Electric car thread

[old man emu]

Latest motor vehicle sales data are showing that market forces are now shaping, let me say, the movement away from pure ICE vehicles. The figures show that consumers are putting a lot of thought into selecting the best alternative for their particular transport needs.

 

In the battle for market dominance, it appears that the Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) is showing itself to be the most suitable. This type of vehicle can be driven all-electric for daily commutes over short distance, but still proved the range capability for long distance travel. In doing this, it is reducing the amount of petroleum being burnt, which is a step towards nett zero. You must also take into account that since the USA's Clean Air Act of the mid-70s, emission levels from modern engines have fallen drastically due to better engineering and the introduction of catalytic converters.

 

The sales figures are showing what the CEO of Ford has said. The market will stabilise itself to be a mixture of pure EV, PHEV and ICE for many decades to come. During those decades, I'm sure that storage battery performance will greatly improve, so that perhaps by the end of the 21st Century all-electric might be achieved.

 

In order for that to happen, government mandates affecting the composition of the national fleet must be rescinded. I do support a user-pays fee for full EVs to replace the excise and GST income from the sale of petrol and diesel fuels.

[facthunter]

The best configuration is electric with a small booster support IC engine in some situations.. Hybrid as the worst of both. The one I suggest is used in the Dakar cars. Totally proven in concept, simple and effective.  Nev

[red750]

[octave]

5 hours ago, facthunter said:

The best configuration is electric with a small booster support IC engine in some situations.. Hybrid as the worst of both.

 

My son's first EV was a BMW I3 Rex. The Rex stands for range extender.  It had (no longer made) a BMW motorcycle engine that would cut in at a predetermined charge state, From memory, you could program it the point at which it would cut in. When we drove it whilst on holiday the engine did not cut in as we never had the battery get low.  The new BMWs no longer have this option, I think because they increased the size of the battery.

 

7 hours ago, old man emu said:

I'm sure that storage battery performance will greatly improve, so that perhaps by the end of the 21st Century all-electric might be achieved.

 

Wow, that is an amazingly long time frame, 86 years.   Most big changes such as the change from horse transport to car transport or the Wright brothers to the moon land or telegram to internet have been somewhat quicker.  

7 hours ago, old man emu said:

I do support a user-pays fee for full EVs to replace the excise and GST income from the sale of petrol and diesel fuels.

 

I would agree that roads have to be paid for by the users whatever fuel they use.  I do however believe that transitioning to EV should be supported by either the carrot or the stick or both.   Whilst in some areas we just accept market forces in other areas we take the good of society into account.  Cigarettes are carcinogenic so we tax them at a high rate as a disincentive.   Internal combustion cars are harmful.   There are plenty of studies that show that living near traffic is hazardous to your health (happy to post numerous links to reputable studies).   There are also reputable studies that quantify what it is costing society in terms of health costs.

 

I do believe that the government ought to be concerned with the health of the people but also with the long-term economic consequences  Pollution from cars and vans costs £6billion per year in health damages

 

A city with only EVs would be so much better in terms of fumes and noise. 

[old man emu]

30 minutes ago, octave said:

Internal combustion cars are harmful.

I wonder how much of that statement is based on out-of-date data. I fully agree that 50 years ago poor carburetion, lack of catalytic converters, Tetraethyl lead and muck in the fuel all contributed to the fact that vehicle exhausts are harmful. However, with all the improvements that have taken place in the past 50 years I think that the levels of harmful exhaust products coming out of tailpipes have dropped to very low levels. I did hear that the emissions of a car today could be as much as 95% lower than one back in the 70s. I can't produce the data to support he level of that claim, but I hope you'll agree that they are indeed lower.

 

The bit\g problem we have In Australia is the filthy fuel that is being dumped on us. You can't do much to produce clean emissions if you have to start with muck.

 

30 minutes ago, octave said:

Wow, that is an amazingly long time frame, 86 years. 

Well, end of century could mean the start of the fourth quarter. All I meant to imply that in time all the problems associated with economical storage and use of electricity will be solved over time. 2035 is, I think, too close for 100% success. 

 

I suggest that we be careful quoting articles from Britain and Europe in relation to pollution and its costs.  While I won't dispute the figures in that article, you have to remember that those countries have denser populations and more of every polluting thing than we do in Australia.

[kgwilson]

Hybrids are complex and expensive to both build and maintain. They have been around for over 20 years now but battery EVs are now a much better proposition. Toyota a sold the first Prius in 1997 and ended production in 2017. The writing was on the wall and the success of Tesla was a major contributing factor. The fact that hybrids are still being produced and sold in quite large numbers is largely due to the range anxiety that some people have, though this is disappearing with new high end EVs with considerable better range than most ICE vehicles.

 

Hybrids tend to be the worst of both worlds. They are not as reliable as pure EVs and have a pretty terrible range of under 100km. They are also far more likely to catch fire than ICE vehicles and several hundred % more likely to catch fire than pure EVs. They are generally more expensive to repair and a lot more complex than an ICE car or BEV. With range anxiety declining they will eventually die out.

 

In some circumstances an EV with a small ICE engine to charge the battery may be a good option. Carlos Sainz won the Dakar this year rally in one. Nothing can deliver the power to the road like an electric motor. Of course this has been known for decades with Diesel electric trains and ships.

[kgwilson]

2 minutes ago, old man emu said:

 

I suggest that we be careful quoting articles from Britain and Europe in relation to pollution and its costs.  While I won't dispute the figures in that article, you have to remember that those countries have denser populations and more of every polluting thing than we do in Australia.

On a per capita basis Australia is one of the worst polluting countries on the planet.

[old man emu]

1 minute ago, kgwilson said:

an EV with a small ICE engine to charge the battery may be a good option.

Isn't that the description of a Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) 

[old man emu]

2 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

On a per capita basis Australia is one of the worst polluting countries on the planet.

Yeah, but the number of capitas is very low in comparison. 

[octave]

6 minutes ago, old man emu said:

sn't that the description of a Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) 

Nope. There is a distinct difference between hybrids and range extender vehicles.

 

Understanding Hybrid Vehicles: The 4 Main Types

[octave]

18 minutes ago, old man emu said:

I wonder how much of that statement is based on out-of-date data.

This seems pretty up-to-date to me                  .Vehicle emissions may cause over 11,000 deaths a year, researchers say                but you could do your own search and see what studies you can find.

 

Whilst there has been much progress in reducing pollutants from IC cars there are still enough pollutants to cause negative outcomes.  

 

Air Pollutant Emissions

• carbon monoxide (CO),
• nitrogen oxides (NOx),
• particulate matter (PM); and
• volatile organic compounds (VOC).

 

 

 

 

[facthunter]

Till we get the electricity from a clean source the electric car changes little in the pollution equation except shift it some where else. The Large(ish) Trucks everybody wants to hate get far better mileage than  a 53 Morris Oxford or a heron headed Ford Cortina. of 1600  cc did.. Side valve engines are notoriously inefficient. electric in the car is nearly 100% efficient. Nuclear involves steam and is very poor efficiency with lots of WASTED heat and cooling water needed.. The electricity must be clean. diesels using adblu are hard to even detect a smell.. A petrol car with a poisoned catalytic converter stinks to high hell.. Most of the problem IS in areas of dense population and with Heavy traffic..The worst pollutant in fuels is sulphur. Its about 7% SEVEN!! in ships fuel. It's almost just Crude oil. Not supposed to be used inside 200kms of the land. but still allowed at the berths in Sydney harbour  for the Cruise Ships . Nev

Edited June 8 by facthunter

[octave]

15 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Till we get the electricity from a clean source the electric car changes little in the pollution equation except shift it some where else.

 

Depending on where you live a portion of electricity is clean.  Every year the proportion of cleaner electricity grows. If you live in Tasmania then the grid supply is very clean.  Even in places where some of the electricity comes from coal, there are still gains from the pollution being from a centralised source. Most power stations are not in the middle of the city or opposite a school.

 

What is often forgotten is the energy inputs required to get crude oil from the ground into the tank of our car.  The amount of fossil fuel and electricity required for the exploration, drilling and then transporting across the world, refining and delivering to the petrol station in a fossil-fueled ship is astounding.  

29 minutes ago, facthunter said:

The worst pollutant in fuels is sulphur. Its about 7% SEVEN!! in ships fuel. It's almost just Crude oil. Not supposed to be used inside 200kms of the land. but still allowed at the berths in Sydney harbour  for the Cruise Ships

True and these ships transport oil across the world even before we burn it in our cars.

 

EV or Gas, What Pollutes More?

 

 

[spacesailor]

All those pollutants,  from IC cars.

Are.

Removed when using " Hydrogen " .

Only water is exhausted. 

spacesailor

 

 

[willedoo]

One issue with oil is the environmental degradation from exploration. On the seismic exploration side of it, things have improved vastly due to the introduction of GPS, but on the other hand, since the time GPS was introduced and saved a lot of damage, a lot of work has progressed from regional 2D exploration to intensive 3D grids which leave a big environmental footprint. On the drilling and production side, not much has changed. They still need rig roads and rig sites constructed and following that, pipeline clearing and construction. In areas where there's not enough oil to warrant a pipeline, the oil is transported by truck to the nearest pipeline access. The roads are unsealed and need permanent work crews doing continual roadwork maintenance, so the carbon footprint is ongoing.

[spacesailor]

NO ' Seismic Exploration ' for " rare earth minerals " .

Perhaps without that slave Labor, we sometimes see on the news, 

The better battery's would never evolved .

spacesailor

PS : not knocking progress,  without mr Flemming's 

' penicillin ' I wouldn't be here. 

[old man emu]

EVs are heavy, compared to an ICE. It's a simple fact which is a product of their energy storage system. Just like an ICE, that weight has to be supported by the tyres. This video explains the various factors that have to be considered  in designing a tyre for an EV. The production of the video was sponsored by the tyre manufacturer Hankook, so it is a bit of an infotainment piece, but the points discussed would have to be dealt with by every tyre manufacturer. Also it is aimed at Northern Hemisphere driving, so it mentions differences between summer and winter tyre needs. 

 

One thing that drew my attention, based on my training and experience as an accident reconstructionist, was that EV tyres are made with a harder rubber compound than that used for the average ICE passenger car. The hardness of the tyre compound affects the Coefficient of Friction (CoF) between the tyre and the road surface. A harder tyre has a lower CoF, resulting in a longer stopping distance on the same surface than for a softer tyre. I'm talking about locked wheel sliding and ignoring the way ABS affects stopping distance. So, basically, I would expect any vehicle with harder compound tyres to take a longer distance to stop than one with softer compound, for example a sedan -v- an SUV.

 

I hope you find this video enlightening.

 

[facthunter]

Riding motorbikes will show you how hard tyres grip is less, especially when the road is wet... The fact you don't get power jerkiness would be an asset with EV traction The XW GT Falcon with Auto was a bit of a trap.. Go to overtake and it decides to change down a gear..  Nev

[willedoo]

15 hours ago, spacesailor said:

NO ' Seismic Exploration ' for " rare earth minerals " .

spacey, they don't do seismic exploration in the way it's done with oil and gas, but they can do low impact passive seismic testing to map the regolith which is the layer of dirt and loose rock covering bedrock. They use portable sensor equipment and bury the sensors about half a meter under the surface. One the bedrock is identified, they do core drilling and geo chemical analysis to identify the rare earth elements. Oil and gas seismic testing on the other hand is testing much deeper to identify the source rock and reservoir rock strata to find potential hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs.

[red750]

Apologies, octave, not meaning to upset. This just appeared on Facebook.

 

[facthunter]

Do you ever make an attempt to VERIFY all this, Red ? FARCEbook is not something I'd rely on absolutely. I NEVER use it. Nev

[octave]

 

20 minutes ago, red750 said:

Apologies, octave, not meaning to upset. This just appeared on Facebook.

 

This does not upset me but bemuses me.  I am not sure about this particular picture however there are some photoshopped images floating around at the moment.  I am well aware of Tesla motor Company's performance because I have some shares so I tend to check production numbers against sales numbers regularly.

 

You do understand that IC car manufacturers and oil companies are very keen to push stories that suit their business interests, this surely should not surprise you.

Tesla sales have declined this year although other manufacturers are having a better year.  Car companies of all types go through cycles.  Car production is always slightly behind sales figures, they can't predict how many cars they will sell next week.

 

I find it interesting why people are so keen to post any story that appears (either true, untrue or partially true) that they come across as if it proves anything often without any fact-checking. The traditional car companies and oil companies just love these people.

 

If I were going to make an observation regarding the state of EV sales I would not rely just on headlines or pictures which may or may not be real I would look for serious articles that quote real figures. 

 

Perhaps the article below will shed some light on the present situation

 

Should Tesla’s Inventory Pileup Worry Investors?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[old man emu]

18 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Do you ever make an attempt to VERIFY all this, Red ?

Perhaps the caption to that picture could be false, but there are more and more examples from all over the world of stockpiles of vehicles. Take a look at this:

It is the CEVA Vehicle Logistics site at Lot 3/5 Culverston Rd, Minto NSW 2566. Minto is  a suburb in Campbelltown City in southwest Sydney. This site has been used for years. I remember it as a site that Patrick Stevedores Pty Ltd used to park imported vehicles. My guess is that all those cars are ICEs. But the photo could easily be captioned claiming that all those vehicles are EVs.

 

Sales of EVs seem to be running at around 7.5% of total new vehicle sales. I don't want to argue the toss over the figure I used, I just took a reasonable guess form what I have ben reading. The point I would like to make is: what percentage of the total number of EVs manufactured does the sales percentage represent. The reason for the reported stockpiles is not wholly due to &.5% of sales out of 100%, but gross over-manufacture. Perhapns Mankind would be better served by turning cars into kettles.

[octave]

In Q1 2024, Tesla delivered 386,810 vehicles, marking an 8.5% decline from the same period last year. With its aggressive expansion in production capacity, Tesla appears to be contending with a growing stockpile of unsold vehicles. Production for the last quarter stood at 433,000 vehicles, indicating that an additional 47,000 cars were likely added to inventory. Reports and satellite images reveal unsold Teslas accumulating in parking lots across Texas, Australia, and Germany. Furthermore, Tesla’s global vehicle inventory, measured in days of supply, has increased from 15 days in Q1 2023 to 28 days in Q1 2024. Delivery times for Tesla have also decreased from up to six months in 2022 to just a few weeks for customized models.

[old man emu]

5 minutes ago, octave said:

Tesla sales have declined this year although other manufacturers are having a better year.

TESLA sales get brought up all the time. Nobody ever looks at the factors why TESLA sales decline. Perhaps it is quite simply that the design of the vehicles, the after-sales support provided by TESLA and other non-technical factors that influence a purchasing decision. Maybe most people just don't like the product offered, but prefer that of another manufacturer. Isn't that what happened to BMC-Leyland?