Electric car thread

[Litespeed]

So the investment advice is to buy one then burn down the factory.

 

Be good for everyone

[old man emu]

I see the sales figures for the Cybertruck resembling the figures for the number of Hamas members joining Brith Sholom. ((Hebrew: "Covenant of Peace") is a Jewish fraternal organization.

 

I can't see too many Cybertrucks being built because they are, at best, more of a proof of concept. You also have to look at them in the light of sales of comparative vehicles in the USA. Ford can't get rid of the electric pickups it made. I think GMH is in a similar boat. The buyers of pickups just are not interested in the power source. Also, in the USA, pickups are tradies' vehicles, not ego-boosters for soccer mums. 

[facthunter]

Are you sure of what's in your last three lines.?  Nev

[Litespeed]

"Pickups are tradies vehicles and not ego boosters for soccer mums"

 

The F truck is the biggest seller for over 40 years, most would be ego buyers.

[red750]

On Sunrise today they were talking about the increase in car sales despite inflation. Apparently Ford Everest and Ranger are the current top sellers. EV sales are also increasing.

[facthunter]

Keep up with the Joneses. Zoom zoom. (sorry Mazda).  Bl@@dy EL  ... Surely you don't watch Sunrise. It will numb your brain. Nev

[spacesailor]

Not all " Big & Brash "

The Holden / GMC / Chevy , Suburban.  Hasn't knocked the Toyota Landcruiser off its pedestal so  it is the top Australian SUV wagon! Again .

spacesailor

[old man emu]

3 hours ago, facthunter said:

Are you sure of what's in your last three lines.?  Nev

What's there is an opinion. I'm open to hearing those of other people.

[Jerry_Atrick]

My observation when I (virtually) lived in the US was that men had the "trucks" (big utes) and women had sedans... Smaller SUVs have probably changed all that.

[spacesailor]

My Daughter has the " Toyota Landcruiser V8 " diesel. 

Her hubby, the " Ford Ranger " Ute. 

spacesailor

[kgwilson]

There are reportedly more than 2 million pre orders for the Cybertuck. Usually a pre order means a refundable $1000.00 deposit with a $1-200.00 non refundable portion called a fee. If this is the case and everyone pulls out, Tesla will pocket between $200 & $400 million and not have to actually sell any.

[red750]

[Litespeed]

1 hour ago, kgwilson said:

There are reportedly more than 2 million pre orders for the Cybertuck. Usually a pre order means a refundable $1000.00 deposit with a $1-200.00 non refundable portion called a fee. If this is the case and everyone pulls out, Tesla will pocket between $200 & $400 million and not have to actually sell any.

Tesla happily use deposits as funding interest free. Look at the sportscar they took deposits and five years later, still no sportscar.

[old man emu]

7 hours ago, Litespeed said:

Tesla happily use deposits as funding interest free.

Doesn't that have the smell of a Ponzi scheme?

[Jerry_Atrick]

I am not sure about US law, or the state Tesla is incorporated in, however, it is a murky area. Generally, if you make a deposit, it rarely coes into a a master "customer" account, for which a sub-account is made in your name and the money is depsoited in that sub account. The exception is lawyers custoemr accounts, which they generally have to deposit money in the above way by law, where that money is  not for their fees, but in settlemenbt of a transaction (e.g. a house purchase).

 

Unless Tesla are putting money in that account, or an escrow account, you basically become an unsecured creditor to the company. Now, they still owe you money - in this case minus any non-refundable component. If you decide you don't want whatever you have a deposit down for, you will be owed your refund minus any charges in accordance with the terms of the contract. No sweat when they have the funds to pay you (and they don't put roadblocks up to stop paying as in QANTAS). But, if the poop hits the propellor, then it gets a bit sticky. If they put your deposit in a sub account as lawyers have to, it effectively is a trust account they hold for your benefit; you have a claim higher than anyone else, except probably the taxman on the money identifiable in your sub account - subject to any conditions such as non-refindable amounts (which would be couched as reasonable expenses), etc. This is a basic tenet of trust law - the money is identifiable and seperable from others.. However, if you have simply deposited into a company account, even if it is a customer account, but in that account your money is not discernable from others except for balance sheet entries, then, trusts don't apply (unless explicitly formed in the contract of sale, which never happens). As such, you are just another unsecured creditor.

 

There are two reasons that, unless forced upon, corporates won't set up client sub accounts. First, it is a cost and they don't want to incur that. But second, it generally forms a trust and unless they have specified a trust in the contract of sale, it forms a sort of default trust in which they trustee (the company) owes you a fiduciary duty of care to use thaty money to your advantage and you have to receive the benefits of the use of that money. In other words, they become your asset managher for that money. However, if no trust is formed, they can use that money for whatever they want and they receive the benefits of that use. Allyour money is, is an entry in the short term liabilities on the balance sheet. If they go belly up, you're at the same point in the line of the unsecured creditors, which, outside of China, is ahead of the shareholders but behind everyone else. So, Tesla can use that money to sustain operations of the company if they wish.

 

There is a flip side to it.. and it happens (or used to) with new builds of apartments in Melbourne when buying CBD and Southbank apartments were the craze. As soon as deposits open, you get in as quickly as you can so you're at the front of the queue. In the case of the apartments, as they got near to completion, you sold your apartment, often for a handsome profit over the price you paid off the plan. You banked the difference minue any financing fees if your timing was off and they settled their purchase from you after you settled your purchase with the builkder/agent.

 

The same I hear has sort of happened with the CyberTruck. Except, people are simply selling their position in the queue for a premium over the $1,000 they paid.

 

 

 

Edited December 10, 2023 by Jerry_Atrick

[red750]

[Jerry_Atrick]

https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-cybertruck-scalper-policy-returns/?utm_campaign=syndication&utm_source=smh.com.au&utm_content=article_3&utm_medium=partner

[old man emu]

The killer for EVs will not be the dangers such as the possibility of inextinguishable fires, or a backlash against the contemporary inability to recycle the battery packs (was going to say "current inability", but I don't mean this post to be punny). The killer will be the inability to insure for the repair/replacement of the battery pack in the event of impact damage. As for the body of the vehicle and the drivetrain, I don't see the ability to insure for their repair as being any different than that for a gas guzzler.

 

If the battery pack is damaged in anyway, it has to come out and be replaced, in case it has suffered unseen internal damage that might lead to thermal runaway (catching fire) after the vehicle is returned to service. As a rule of thumb, global battery production costs have dropped to approximately $125/kWh, meaning for example that car-makers are buying a 100kWh battery pack for $12,500 before they’ve even dropped it into the car. Like any other replacement part, consumers will likely pay more than double that much from a dealer in order for the car-maker to recover overheads like logistics and storage while also making some retail margin. Then there is the cost to remove/replace, and you can bet there would be a hefty recycling fee for the old battery. Let's put the total replacement job cost at $20K. The 2023 GWM Ora is a compact electric car that’s priced from $44,490 drive-away. 

 

Drive-away = Wholesale floor price + GST + Registration Fee + CTP Insurance. The last three represent money that is not recoverable as soon as the vehicle leaves the retailer's yard. Let's put the wholesale price at $40K. The replacement cost of the battery pack is close to one third of the wholesale price. Insurance companies are going to ask a high premium to cover that risk.

 

However, if you have ever had even a minor bingle requiring replacement of a mudguard or door, you know that it takes a while before the insurance company approves the claim. During that time, the vehicle is often held in storage. It's not problem for ICEs, because they can be stored as close to each other as they can be parked in a carpark. However, due to the possibility of a damaged battery igniting, EVs have to be kept well separated. Vehicle repairers do not have the necessary space for that.

 

These points are probably better presented in this video. It's even Australian!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

[facthunter]

Any time a vehicle is taken off the road the remaining registration and TP insurance is refunded. The remaining bit of  your vehicle insurance is  forfeited IF it's written off so too bad if you've just paid a years insurance. Late  model vehicles are made of  steels that can't be welded or straightened and minor damage means a write off in most cases.. Theirs a lot of aluminium in a Tesla frame and that can't be repaired either, same as aluminium framed motorcycles.  Nev

[octave]

2 hours ago, old man emu said:

backlash against the contemporary inability to recycle the battery packs (was going to say "current inability", but I don't mean this post to be punny).

It is not correct to say that there is "no current ability" to recycle EV batteries.   Whilst the industry is in its infancy there may not be many batteries recycled (partly because of lack of demand).   I posted a video earlier in this or another thread showing in detail the process of recycling valuable constituents.  often the EV doomsayer folks like to quote from the past.  The fact is that the ability to reuse or recycle anything will always lag behind the product in its earlier days.   It is a fact that EV and phone batteries "Can and are being recycled"  and the industry is growing.

 

One of the biggest battery recycling plants in the US is up and running

 

Eramet and Suez choose Dunkirk for their electric vehicle battery recycling plant

 

Redwood Materials announces $3.5 billion EV battery recycling plant in South Carolina

 

Glencore plans Europe’s biggest electric car battery recycling plant

 

Ford signs deal with Redwood Materials to recycle EV Batteries

 

Redwood Materials Will Recycle VW EV Batteries

 

I could go on posting links.     

 

The fire thing is much exaggerated according to the stats.   People get all excited when there is a vehicle fire but tend to not be interested if the vehicle is petrol or diesel-powered. 

 

Land/Range Rovers Keep Catching Fires But EVs Are The Problem?

 

The recent fire at Luton Airport car park is now believed to have been started by a diesel Range Rover. But many continue to believe it must have been an EV.

 

If I were worried about fire and purchasing an EV I would probably opt for the less flammable battery chemistry such as the litheum ferrophosfate chemistry.

 

2 hours ago, old man emu said:

However, if you have ever had even a minor bingle requiring replacement of a mudguard or door, you know that it takes a while before the insurance company approves the claim.

 

I (I am ashamed to admit) have been in this situation. Although I have not had an incident or accident in 44 years of driving I did badly dent my sons (3 month old) Tesla.  The repairs were not a nightmare and in fact no different from any other car.

 

It is always possible to search for the few cases where things go badly. My bro in laws Suzuki Swift engine grenaded quite early on in its expected life. 

 

 

The reality is there are genuine questions to be asked about any technology.  Certainly, EVs are not yet the best choice for everyone, perhaps we are in the early adopter stage. Countries like Norway are way ahead and it I think is rational to analyse these countries to see what costs and benefits are being derived and what negative consequences there may or may not be.   

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by octave

[onetrack]

OME's post only leads me to strengthen my belief, that the only real solution to the EV design - as with phones, laptops, and consumer items -  is the swappable battery. 

 

There is already a major push by a number of companies to promote the swappable battery in EV's. One can only hope that consumer preference and legislation aids the move to swappable batteries.

[facthunter]

Might not suit everybody.  Nev

[onetrack]

Ample in the U.S and Nio in China are pushing the swappable battery for EV's.

 

Perhaps the only thing that will kill it is if some battery manufacturer produces a battery capable of being recharged in 5 mins.

 

The charging station availability problem is going to become a big issue when EV numbers start to really increase.

 

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by onetrack

[octave]

Here is another recent video on battery swap. I think battery swap will be a part of the way we operate.   A Nio is designing its cars for battery swap but of course, you do not have to do that. It is a little like a 9kg gas cylinder, you can refill it or swap it. 

 

 

 

[onetrack]

There's another concern being raised over EV's (and big SUV's as well) - and that is their excessive levels of weight, which pose a big problem in any major crash.

 

The vast majority of EV's weigh over 2 tonnes, and these heavy vehicles pose a bigger threat to other road users simply because a really heavy vehicle hitting yours at speed is going to cause more damage to you and your car, than a lighter one does.

 

And the problem is that EV owners are going for bigger, heavier batteries, because of range anxiety.

 

https://www.drive.com.au/news/suvs-electric-cars-safety-concern-euro-ncap/