Tassie State Election 2024.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Had no idea it is on next week.. Mainstream papers didn't have much on it, and the Mercury is a bit light on it. But, this YT vid brought it into sharp focus:

 

F! Not even ScoMo could hit some of those figures, despite trying hard. Tassie will always have some structural challenges to overcome, but things seem pretty dire down there. But, the Libs are awy ahead according to this: https://theconversation.com/dire-polls-for-labor-in-tasmania-and-queensland-with-elections-upcoming-225455

 

Well, it would seem they are not offering much of a change to the Libs..

 

Is there a desire for change down there? That youth offenders instituion is a disgrace, but apart from the press trying to beat it up, it did not seem to get much traction. Do people know the level of homelessness and poverty? 25% of the latter seemed pretty thrid world to me. And those foreign ag companies effectively being subsidised by the taxpayer.. WTF.. @Marty_d; @nomadpete - what is going on down there...

 

Or was that some domesday vid to keep the mainlanders out?

 

(BTW, I have to start work at 5:30am on election day - will go for a couple of hours.. look forward to the election telecast on ABC, or does that also get nobbled?)

[Marty_d]

I don't pay much attention to state politics to be honest.   The premier with 3 names - Ron JEREMY ROCK Hudson CLIFF Richards - just seems determined to push through with the white elephant that is the AFL stadium.  The opposition seem fairly ineffectual. 

I'm just going to vote Green in the hopes that they can get balance of power in a minority government, which is about the best we can hope for. 

[nomadpete]

My theory is that Tassie is a small pond for pollies to play in. Local councils are the same everywhere.  The smaller mobs seem to avoid meaningful scrutiny and they get away wit more dodgy stuff.

 

I support independants and Greens for the same reason as Marty.

 

Down here poverty and unemployment/ underemployment is rife. When it comes to job options, there seems to be mostly public servants, fish farmers and loggers.

 

We probably have a big unreported number of people living rough. Not on the streets, but in third world shacks on bush blocks. I am helping the president of our mens shed - he managed to buy a bush block back when they were affordable. Still no electricity so I am setting up a basic solar plant to give him lights.

[facthunter]

Despite the "Clean and Green" tag a lot of it is anything but. More than enough mining has been carried out extensively in the Past .The HYDRO HEC  had a lot of influence then Gunns ran the show with logging and Gambling has a lot of control now. It's a place where the weather can be wild and variable. It's population is on a Par with Geelong and has a lot of infrastructure to support. Being an Island the transport costs of Sea and Air add to the drain on the residents resources. I've done Hundreds of flights there carrying People and cargo and  3 trips on  motorcycles.  Nev

[nomadpete]

You must havd liked it if you rode down here three times!

[facthunter]

True and I still do.. The air is very clean and the southwest quite raw and unspoiled. Some want to restore Lake Pedder, but I think that's not a good idea  since Tassie is 83% hydro powered..   Nev

[Mr.Vegemite]

I've lived in Tassie for about 10 years now. 

Started in Launceston and surrounding suburbs and loved it. Moved out to the West Coast to have a look and then rents went up about 30%.

I was going to head back to the Launceston area, but too expensive now, so I'm stuck until I can get public housing, but that will be years off, if ever.

Like others, I wouldn't piss on the main parties and was thinking of being a no show but will vote Green if for nothing else than to get out of the house and a sausage sanga.

 

[facthunter]

It's a supply and demand thing. (housing)  The Greens can promise what they like but will never be a majority because they have this trait of self destructing over internal friction and differences. I like Bob Brown because he's honest and I like Jacqui Lambie because she is herself.. . Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

And, that makes them worse than the others? Like Labor's HAFF idea, which, assuming it would have met investment returns, after handing Costello a juicy fee, would have returned wweet FA against what is required? Call me cynical, but that was probably to pay for less unfavourable commentary in Costello's news. er, entertainement empire.

 

Oh, and like the LNP didn't finally self-destruct, nor the ALP has no history of doing so? The Greens, like all political parties, have their (fractious) factions, and eventually, they all self-destruct.

 

Personally, I don't mind Adam Brandt, for example; he has passion. The young housing fella, who's name I can't recall, has passion.. and has riled the PM on a number of occasions for showing up Labor's plans for what they were.. crap. Sadly, we are not a direct democracy - meaning we don't get to vote  directly on laws or policy (I think Sweden is); but we are a representative democracy - we get who we vote for.. and I am amazed at how many people around the world keep voting for numpties, and then call the other ones they didn't vote for numpties.

 

Mind you, any party that has welcomed a pollie into their ranks who has no problems with having an argument with a strip club owner at two in the morning after being thrown out of there, let alone just being seen in one (for other than research purposes, of course), has to get my vote.

 

[hint, that last bit was a touch of sarcasm]

 

Edited March 17 by Jerry_Atrick

[facthunter]

You missed the critical point of my argument. The Greens will never achieve majority government when they will need to have more substance to their grandstanding antics and  CEASE voting with the LNP to pinch a few Labor voters here and there instead of taking the LNP ON who regard the Greens as the worst of all options regarding policies.  Nev

[Mr.Vegemite]

2 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

.... The young housing fella, who's name I can't recall, has passion.. and has riled the PM on a number of occasions for showing up Labor's plans for what they were.. crap. .....

 

I know the fellow you mean. He was on the ABC's National Press Club a couple of days ago and very impressive and articulate. Originally with Labour I believe.

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

2 hours ago, facthunter said:

You missed the critical point of my argument.

No, I didn't miss your point.. I was reflecting on how the major parties also lack real substance, often are petulant and will vote (or not, as the case may be) with the other no matter how stupid to do so. The Greens get called out more by the press for it, that's all.

 

Let's look at some examples - virtually the whole of the LNP (maybe Simon Birmingham excepted),, you're telling me they are better and have more substance and less grandstanding than the Greens? Yet, they still win the most of the primary vote, which, if people really cared about lack of substance and being petulant/grandstanding and predalling BS policies, they would probably be behind the Greens.

 

Even Albanese duing the Voice referendum would not allow debaete on a private members bill to ban lying in political advertising (to my knowledge, under comsumer law in Aus, it is not allowed for commerical advertising). You know, wouldn't want to vote for something to make the debate.. fair and even politics more fair?.  Self-destruction? Well, lets not forget Keating v Hawke - what saved them in the end was Hewson as the leader of the LNP; nor the Rudd --> Gillard --> Rudd debacle.. Oh, and for letting loonies in to the party - don't recall Latham in ALP? Not even as the leader of the party (thankfully) in opposition? He has turned out to be a very safe pair of hands, hasn't he? On the LNP side, wherre do you stop? The Greens had one notable one recently, and a few over the years. Again, on that metric, the LNP would be last to get votes, then the ALP..

 

I think you're missing my point. I would invite you to read their policies and implementation plans they had at the last federal election - all seemed pretty well thought through and costed. I don't agree entirely with all of it, but it was the amateurish muck-raking and rabble rousing the press likes to make the Greens out to be probably has more to do with them not getting into power than their real conduct or policies, or ability. As to whether or not they have the depth or comeptenece to do it - how is that different to either of the majors today, though I will put Labor ahead of the LNP, in either case, the bar is not that high. They Greens, when you peel away the BS, don't seem to be less competent than the others.. They just don't have as many members, and they get even worse coverage in terms of media bias (IMHO) than the majors, or really, than the ALP.

 

That is my point - yes as a minority party and yes they get to throw stones. But they are no worse than the others with whom we falsely credit more responsibility and ability, so why not vote for them? If I were in Aus at the last election, they would have got my #1 on both the senate and HR tickets.

Edited March 17 by Jerry_Atrick

[facthunter]

I take NO notice of what the Press  say at all. I watch Question time ,"Live" and what actually happens  when something important is being debated, on the ABC radio Live.  Not someone elses VERSION of it. ,Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

Fair enough, but not everything is said in parliament and not everyone gets the same amount of time to say it

[Marty_d]

https://tasmaniantimes.com/2024/03/tasmanias-newest-sporting-club-launched/

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

 

 

[Marty_d]

How the hell are we going to cope with two potato head pollies?

 

[facthunter]

Count "bums in seats", when in Tassie..Nev

[Marty_d]

Funny watching the tally room panel last night.   Rockliff comes in and gives a rousing  victory speech - ignoring the fact that the libs vote went down by 13%, even if they form minority government they'll have less seats than before he called the early election (which was supposed to get them to majority), and now he has that mouth-chewing revenant Erika Betts sharpening the knife.

Nice own goal Jezza!

[Mr.Vegemite]

To his credit Rockliff did say "we have heard you" (the electorate), even if he didn't spell it out that they lost votes. It won't change anything of course. Back to square one. 

I was amused by the various party members on the panel having shots at each other. They just can't help themselves. 'You said this. No I didn't. Yes you did'. They are all liars with selective memory.

What annoys me is how they have these plans, some set for 2030. All well and good but if they had planned in the first place we wouldn't be in this situation with housing and so on. 

They've had 10 years and things get worse .... <rant over>

 

To add. I came to this state exactly 10 years ago so have a good snapshot of how things have progressed. Or should I say regressed.

Edited March 24 by Mr.Vegemite

[facthunter]

 IF Eric's their best, God help all the rest. . Not a mention of the Gambling lobby.

 Rockliff  Lives in a parallel Universe. Snatches defeat from the Jaws of victory. .Early elections?? No one likes  them.   Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

The results are almost in and look like this:

With 4 seats in doubt (and I don't know the top 2, but lets assume Lab and Lib), it is possible that the Libs could nab 17 seats. If they did that, they probably could form a minority government without giving away too much. Let's assume they stay where they are; LNP will need the confindence of the JLN, the independents, and at least 1 green to form a minority government. Given, as I have read, the independents are not likely to want to support the Libs, and the JLN MPs are not great supports of the Libs, and the Greens are diametrically opposed to the Libs, if the Libs want to stay in government with this result, they may well have to concede a lot more than they are comfortable with in terms of policy and integrity. On the numbers, Labor can form a minority government as well, but they will need all of the non-major MPs to side with them, and the JLN, albeit critical of the Libs, are not exactly soul mates with Labor. By the sheer numbers Labor would have to garner, they would have to give up a lot, anyway, but with the JLN, they may well have to move to the high end of the discomfort zone.

 

This may well end up in a hung parliament and another election, or a very shakey coalition that stumbles at the first hurdle and an early election is called.

 

I have no idea of the geenral political disposition of Tassie, but I guess as the last standing blue state, it wouldn't be an illogical conclusion to draw that it is conservative. This is not a good night for the Libs, but it is also not a good night for Labor. Often disenfranchised voters will vote in the others, even if they are incompetent, on the basis that the incumbents aren't doing well and may as well give the others a try - it can't be worse - which is what I think some of the federal election  was - not that they won, but the the LNP lost. That Labor couldn't manage it in Tassie is a_ because the conservative bias is simply too strong, or b) that they are not well thought of in what is happening federally, either. Although a small state that probably has only a small effect on the federal elections, Albo should take note of this, too.

[Marty_d]

Hopefully the Greens will pick up another seat.  It's going to take a while for all the preferences to be calculated.

In terms of Tassie's conservativeness, yes, there are vast areas of the state which are dyed-in-the-wool conservative.  However I think the south is a bit more progressive - our federal member is Julie Collins (ALP) and she's been elected in every election since 2007.

I think the JLN is a bit of a game-changer this time around but I'm not sure whether it'll stay a force or not.  Remember that these are people endorsed by Jacquie - they might be great, they might be absolute nut jobs, they may not even agree with each other - who can tell.  I know that despite Jacquie herself not supporting the proposed AFL stadium, one of her picks has said he's all for it - so there may be the interesting situation where her party votes on both sides of an issue.

Labor lost themselves this one.  They seem a bit afraid to put their head above the parapet on any issue so they seem like they don't stand for anything.  In terms of the stadium they said they wanted to "renegotiate" with the AFL, but they really want a Tasmanian team.  What would the AFL do, say "sure, have your team, we don't need the stadium we agreed to with the previous lot"?  Not a chance.  So people who are against the new stadium as a) a complete waste of money, b) situated somewhere with no parking planned and c) you've already got a stonking big stadium over the river (guess which side of this issue I'm on) really couldn't vote Labor on that issue.

That's Rebecca White's 3rd loss so I reckon the knives will be out.  She seems nice enough and makes the right noises occasionally but I don't think her position is too viable.  Wouldn't be surprised if Dean Winter ends up leading the opposition before too long.

[Marty_d]

Called it...  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-26/tas-labor-leader-rebecca-white-resigns/103632658

[facthunter]

Call an early election and then lose about 12% of your vote. How do you build a government  based on THAT? Dog knows TASSIE Needs a good govt if any place does, NOW. Where did Rockliff spring from.? . IF he doesn't wake up to some reality, the gov't won't last 3 sittings. . Jacqui could stand to lose credibility through no Fault of her own IF she doesn't handle this situation with great Care. . Bad time to expand in the state  Gov't. Her Senate (Federal) seat is probably safe BUT who knows? She is well regarded by both Parties there but the Tassie Hordes might have other ideas, or more likely  NO IDEA. . I doubt Politics is top of the Hit Parade there. In the end you get what you deserve. Apathy precedes disaster. Get another coupla Glasses of Gin into you.  Nev