Betting on Sports

[Jerry_Atrick]

When I was a kid, the only sports I saw betting on was the horses - trots or races. These days, you can bet on any sport, even while it is in play. And if you have a programming flair, sites like betfair allow you to write algorithmic betting software  to bet, often directly with other punters. And I know a few who do this in their spare time when they are not trading or risk managing trading.

 

A couple of years ago, I decided to inject £50 into a betting account. I got that £50 to about £120 before losing it all. I was betting on the AFL and I happened to pick a weekend where all the favourites I picked were beaten and the upsets I picked didn't materialise. So much for my footy-betting prowess. I wasn't trying to make money - it was just to see how far I would go.. I think it lasted something like 5 rounds.

 

Last season, I was going to try again, but lost interest. This year, I figured I would try again, but this time to try and make money. Once my £50 is done, it is done. But, this time I was going to come up with a propert strategy. I am not going to write software and betfair it; don't have time for it. My idea is if I can make 15% return each week compounded, then after 23 weeks (from round 4, includes finals), it will return my c. £1,240. While I can definitely lose it all, and probably will, it is not a bad risk adjusted return on investment.

 

My strategy is simple. The team I pick has to return at least 15% on the bet, and I have to be aroun 98% certain they will win. I don't rely on knowing the teams intimately.. I waited until round 4 so I could see how the respective teams performed. I then simply track who is out injured and who is back. I don't bet evertthing every week - in fact this last round, I only bet on one team. If the odds are close enough, I may go for a lower probabilty (say 70% chance) and hedge the other way.. The minimum odds have to retyurn 40% for me to do this, otherwise, it is not worth it. I don't listen to the so called experts and I don't spend hours puring over the papers and TV looking at the form.

 

Round 8 just finished. There was niot one game in that round that gave me more than 95% confidence of a win - not even the saints over the roos,  And ayway, the return was 3% - a return hardly worth the risk..

 

A couple of times, my spidey senses went with the upset.. Geelong against Brisbane at the Gabba.. that return me 150%, and the first truly speculative bet this season; a whole £9.35 of the hawks to beat the dogs at at 250% return.. and they came home (I was going to bet more, but decided to play it safe).

 

After 5 rounds, I am not quite up the trajectory I want to be as I don't bet everything.. But I am 166% up and given the last round was a waste in terms of placing bets, that is not a bad return.

 

This round is also hard to pick.. I will wait for the teams to be announced and see what happens.. What I loke about muy system is one doesn't need to know the sport.. it is about observing the overall form of the teams and being informed of the ins and outs that week.. It ouwldn;t work with something like baseball where they play over 100 games a season, or soccer over here. because the lists are not consistent enough. But anything else, it should work.. And yo can bet on virtually any sport these days.

[nomadpete]

Gave you a sad emoticon because....

 

Now you are using fund manager skills to try to beat the professional gambling industry at it's own game.

 

 

Tis high time you moved to a more relaxed life in the antipodese.

[nomadpete]

It aint all bad down here. Note that we have a glut on the red wine market.

[old man emu]

Gambling from Two-up to Lotto is a matter of probabilities. The more the gambler is aware of the probabilities of an outcome of an event, the more often the gambler will be successful. As Kenny Rogers sang, "You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em".

 

I see gambling as an entertainment. I don't have any luck at all, but once in while I will spend some time getting one over on a one-armed bandit. I figure that I'm being entertained, so what I decide to lose is the price I am willing to pay for the entertainment, and be prepared to walk away at the end of the act. I was also taught to pocket any winnings equal to my initial stake, and then continue to gamble with the winnings. If luck holds out and winning accumulate, keep pocketing a portion and play on until time, interest, or stakes run out.

[red750]

I used to take 1 unit each way on one horse in the Melbourne Cup. That gave me a horse to follow in the race, and that was it for the next year. Now I don't even watch the race. I have never bet on the dogs, or any other sport, footy, NRL, soccer, cricket, etc.  I have absolutely no interest in the pokies. My wife enjoyed them for a while, but not in the last 6 or 7 years. I would drive her to the pokie venue and pick her up later. On the whole, I think she came out ahead. My only venture into gambling is the lotteries, Powerball and Ozlotto. Not interested in the other games. And I only buy a mini quik-pick ticket (less than $10) if the jackpot has reached ten million. Often win enough to pay for the next weeks ticket but not always. If the jackpot goes off, I stop buying till it reaches $10 mill again. Gave up picking my own numbers years ago when I never won a cent. And... I hate betting ads.

[facthunter]

Gambling is a curse on society. Ruins many lives and relationships. Nev

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

Gambling is a curse on society. Ruins many lives and relationships. Nev

Just another addiction for the weak-willed.

[Marty_d]

Not a habit I ever want to develop.  I've seen it ruin lives.  These things are set up so the house wins.

I heard there's even online casinos where you pay real money to buy their betting money - but you can never cash out.  Doesn't matter how much you win, you can't convert it back to real dollars.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Generally, I agree that institutionalised gambling is an ill. But how many play the lottos and don't even really see it as such.

 

On the other hand, it can be just a bit of fun as long as one doesn't have an addictive character..

9 hours ago, nomadpete said:

Gave you a sad emoticon because....

 

Now you are using fund manager skills to try to beat the professional gambling industry at it's own game.

 

 

Tis high time you moved to a more relaxed life in the antipodese.

I am using my risk management rather than fund management skills. But for me, it is an interesting experiment. My investment started at £50. I know have £133-ish give or take in my account after four rounds. If I lose it all this week (doubtful as there is only one game I am thinking of betting on), then my £50 loss has given me quite a few hours of entertainment and exercising the brain at the same time. Because I am not just glibly following my team or some commentator's recommendations; I am trying to apply risk management to see how good it actually is (we back test our models, but until something like the economy breaks, it is hard to see if our back tests are right or wrong). For me, it's just an interesting experiment (I have already written off the £50).

 

I would not recommend someone try and make a living out of it, because it can all be lost in a minute. It is not unlike futures in, say commodities; that is a zero sum game, and when you invest in them, you leverage up - it is part of the practice. And in the same way as a sports bet, you can lose it all - and more because of the leverage. But, there is probably the same amount of probability and risk as sports betting, and I am sure the normal potential returns on futures isn't as high as sports betting.

 

I do know of a bloke years ago who was able to pay cash for a fairly nice property in Melbourne on the beach front (between St Kilda and Elwood) on a salary less than me at the time..

 

Another bonus here.. winning on gambling (even the lotto) is tax free.

 

We'll see how I go..

[willedoo]

A bit off topic, but I'm in a shared room in hospital with an ex Victorian who played AFL from the age of seven & currently coaches a local women's team. I've had some interesting conversations with him about AFL & footy in general and learned a bit about the Aussie Rules game. Our TV screens in the room are about 2 metres apart and last night at the same time he was watching an AFL match while I was watching the NRL Dolphins vs Manly. 

[Jerry_Atrick]

When I had my appendix out at 16 years of age, my room mate was a St. Kilda player. I thought they're not that tall while he was laying there.. When he got up to leave, I could just about make out his eyes he was that tall. I am sure he needed oxygen up there.

[red750]

Powerball jackpotted last night. $100,000,000 next Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

[nomadpete]

3 hours ago, red750 said:

Powerball jackpotted last night. $100,000,000 next Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

Taxes for people who cannot do maths.

 

 

 

And wishful thinking.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Well, my experiment took a setback today.. the games I wagered on were played this eve... Thankfully I didn't bet the lot - still 50% up on my initial investment, but a loss by a point and another by a goal...

 

Good days and bad...

 

Can relax for the rest of the weekend.

 

 

[old man emu]

Sorry for your loss, but "YA, Carlton!"

[Jerry_Atrick]

Well, this round wasn't my best, so I decided to do a Nick Leeson and double down, bit in a risk averse way. I felt the Hawks were going to win, and they did, netting be a 2.5x return off a relatively small bet, but enough to almost cover the losses.

 

My investment:

James Packer, eat your heart out!

 

I am £20-ish down on last week..

 

Have almost enouogh to take the family out to a nice dinner around here.

 

(or, about half way to an hour in the Warrior)

 

Edited May 12 by Jerry_Atrick

[nomadpete]

Early days yet, mate.

The odds are just teasin ya.

[Jerry_Atrick]

To be honest, they did tease me this time... And I did deviate from my formula, which is part of the reason I am down.. I wasn't entirely happy with my bets this round as most of the games were amongst relative equals. And it proved why I should stick with the plan.. After my Friaday night losses, I just had a niggly feeling that Adelaide and Hawthorn would get over the line, and Collingwood was a set, in deference to any match fixing against West Coast (that game paid 1.05)So, a bit of luck as both the Hawks and Adelaide game could have gone either way - very much so as Adelaide and Brisbane drew, which meant I got my money back.

 

There are a couple of potential sweet ones next week; need to check who is in and out before making the decision. But, this week provided a salient lesson - stick to the plan and if there is no opportunities according to the plan, head down to the local airfield or something.

 

I am going to watch the Hawks bathe in the glory of propping up my balance this week...

 

Edited May 12 by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

BTW, Vale Cam McCarthy who I am assuming took his life at 29 years of age after suffering a mental illness.. A truly gifted footballer.

[old man emu]

5 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

I am assuming took his life

The news report on ABC Radio of his passing was followed by the provision of the phone number for LifeLine, which is a counselling organisation. That addendum usually follows a report of an event that could have been caused by mental distress.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Wel,, thankfully this week has been very busy and full of what I call.. "career limiting discussions.." such that I didn't get a chance to get my bets on in time this week. Gold Coast absolutely floggingly flogged Geelong in what has to be one of the highest scoring games between two side in a long time.. 100 points (Gellong) to 164 (Glod Coast). I would have picked that cats over the suns any day of the week.. That aurora borrealis (sp?) has wreaked havoc on the game!

 

Got the rest of my bets in.. One speculative, but if the conservative bets come in, it will be an average of 40%,. Will post results at the end of the weekend.

 

(Maybe there is a god after all 😉

 

 

[nomadpete]

2 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Maybe there is a god after all 😉

Ever notice that compulsive gamblers start blaming irrational causes when they lose (or win)?

[old man emu]

Why is it that when a team is not performing to expectations, it is the coach/manager who cops the blame?

 

No professional club would engage a coach/manager off the street. The coach/managers get there through years of apprenticeship learning and gaining experience. Instead of blaming the coach/manager when a team runs dead, perhaps the clubs should put a rocket up the players themselves. Professional footballers are a different breed from those foundations players who established the clubs. Too much money and too little real life experience. I remember when I was a kid, the players for the top clubs had to work during the week to support themselves. That stopped them from galavanting around the celebrity circuit and getting into strife.

[Marty_d]

I didn't know either Glod Coast or Gellong were playing... (sorry Jerry!)

[pmccarthy]

Glod is a village in Romania, it was used as the location of Borat's home in the movie. It is not on the coast, but I reckon they could beat Geelong.