Betting on Sports

[Jerry_Atrick]

10 hours ago, nomadpete said:

Ever notice that compulsive gamblers start blaming irrational causes when they lose (or win)?

I guess so...  I would not really know....

 

I am actually already starting to tire of the thing.. I may just throw the remaining I have on the Hawks this weekend and if they win, just cash out.... or... maybe if they win... it is a sign and I will keep going 😉

 

[old man emu]

3 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

if they win, just cash out.... or... maybe if they win... it is a sign and I will keep going 😉

 

And here we have the birth of another problem gambler. The next thing, he'll be selling those heaters he hasn't installed yet to bet on Molonglo to beat Pipers Flat.

 

http://www.middlemiss.org/lit/poetry/mdougal.html

[Jerry_Atrick]

Can't sell the radiators - they are going in in a couple of weeks.... Yay! Just as the weather warms up..

 

Maybe I'll sell a child instead. Even someone else's

 

 

[nomadpete]

Pleeze.... just dont sell your ticket to Oz

[Jerry_Atrick]

I may be able to go first class if I can keep this up:

 

I did stray from my system slightly - but to my advantage. I had no idea the betting site I use (which is a "reputable" site as has as betting companies can be) allowed in play betting. I was watching the hawks game and in the 10 minute mark of the final quarter, they were still 2 goals ahead but Port were coming back, albeit still clumsily. For some reason, I went onto the site and saw I could place in-play bets and Port Adelaide were running at 7:1. Since I had the Hawks at 5.25:1, I thought perfect hedge opportunity - throw away £10 of my 42.50 win; or should Port win, pick up an additional £60 Still a win-win... Put a £10 on Port and while I am gutted the Hawks were literally pipped at the post, the betting balance survived.

 

Although the Hawks bet over Port Adelaide was a speculative bet, it was one made with the belief that they had a very good chance of getting over the line. It doesn't change the core of my system but adds to it. If I see a team is behind and coming back with a good chance of taking it, and I haven't already bet on them, then it may pay to hedge a potential loss depending on what the odds are I took the original bet with and what the odds of the hedge bet are.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Another round has passed and the balance has increased a bit:

 

But, there was a salient lesson in this week's results, and that is, stick to the strategy.

 

Here are my bets for the week:

 

The one witht he red about is my losing bet this week. As you can see, I don't bet the family silver, and yes, I do lose. Most of my losses have been genuine in the sense they were on my win list, or they were specualtive because the odds v probability of winning looked like an outside change, but I had also laid on hedge bets the other way to minimise the impact of the loss while, should the outside chance come home, still have a good return.

 

But this week, I was like a pilot with a sever case of press-on-itis or get-home-itits looking at a marginal weather forecast. As you can see from the betting amounts, I don't bet the lot - in fact, I am quite conservative. I bet on the Hawks beating Brisnabe depsite the then disparity in their ladder positions, because, in my estmation, the Hawks, with star players coming back and Brisbane's atrocious away record this year, it seemed to me a very high probability they would win. And they did.. Nice one, because it paid for that blunder confirmation bias bet I put on Geelong.

 

This round was very tough, and I had only three bets. I like to have four, psychologically, because I feel I have diversified some of the risk away, even though statistically, I doubt it could be the case. So, looking at Saturday's games, this was the only one that had the return over 25% that was remotely near where I wanted to be. However, my gut feel was that GWS would win, but for some reason, but it was so against my system (Geelong had a couple of stars coming back; no significant changes to the GWS lineup, and it was away for GWS). I let all of these factors confirm my bias of Geelong winning at the Cattery and literally at the last minute, because of press-a-button-itis, confrimed my bias and put on the bet.

 

Unfortunatly, I couldn't execute my new in-game strategy, as I was doing a software release at the time and only have one monitor due to building works. So I had the match on the TV, and after the first quarter figured the odds for GWS would have skyrocketed because they were 3 goals down and now was the perfect time to place that in-play hedge. However, at that time, a problem with the release surfaced, so it was all hands on deck... and then GWS rocked away to a 3 goal lead at 1/2 time and there was an opportunity lost. In the end, GWS beat Geelong by less than a goal, but it is £40 dropped on confirmation bias.. A valuable lesson, otherwise my "investment" may vave been closer to 500% return... but, one has to roll with the punches, and 400% return isn't too bad. so far!

 

It provided a good lesson though on confirmation bias, and one I can apply to flying (although, I have already learned from flying about that!).

 

The other thing I have noticed is that this betting is a lot like gambling on the pokies, or casino, in that if you lose, you lose it all (that you have bet, that is). However, it is a bit like investing in derivative financial instruments in that it is not all down to luck; there is research, developing a strategy, taking the losses with the wins, making the mistakes, tweaking the strategy, etc. For some derivatives, like commodity derivatives, it is also a zero sum game.. if you lose, you lose your whole bet, but you can manage the ups and downs in between and get out ahead before the bet is called.

 

I have final semester exams next week, then four weeks off study; I have to get on with the reno (posts on that to come), but I am thinking of buiilding a database of player, game, and playing conditions stats and seeing if I can make a predictive model of who will win as a result.

 

A couple of weeks ago, my interest in this was waning. Admittedly, it was a bad week in which I went slightly down in the cash balance and I was thinking this is all pure luck. With the odds I normally play (around 1.4 on average), to be 400% up (and yes, admittedly, I can be down next week), there may be something to my quasi-statistical methods.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Well, I have to take the bad with the good; this was not a week to gloat about things. Last week, there was £250 in my betting account; today:

 

One of my 4 games came home. What is worse is there was a good in-play hedge in one of my losing games, but I thought no way... of course, in this stuff, there is a "yes-way".. My only team to come home was the outside chance.. you guessed it.. the Hawks. In Tasmania and on a roll, I had them as a firm favourtie. But Port adelaide losing to Carlton on their home turf was a bit of a shock. And Essendon really should have easily accounted for Gold Coast even nort of the border. What I thought was a shoe-in, and was going to be more on but glad I didn't was Freemantle creaming Melbourne. OK, it was i Alice Springs (I didn't realise, but still would have gone for Melbourne, regardless), but that was a schlacking by any standards.

 

This is the first of the bye rounds and they are notorious for throwing up many upsets. Also, there is the mid-season draft which can also upset the apply cart as teams bring in new players. I may sit out the next few rounds....

Edited June 2 by Jerry_Atrick

[nomadpete]

Would you do any better if you ran a book on what/when/if the heritage people approve of new windows or plaster or drains of trees.....

[spacesailor]

Do uoy play that OLD gambling thing ' pick the draws ' .

I had a unmarked ticket in my pocket for an awfully long time , but never played it .

spacesailor

[Jerry_Atrick]

3 hours ago, nomadpete said:

Would you do any better if you ran a book on what/when/if the heritage people approve of new windows or plaster or drains of trees.....

I would do a lot worse.. totally unpredictable.. .

[Jerry_Atrick]

2 hours ago, spacesailor said:

Do uoy play that OLD gambling thing ' pick the draws ' .

I had a unmarked ticket in my pocket for an awfully long time , but never played it .

spacesailor

Only do my betting through a UK site and they don't have such elaborate schemes.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Wasn't going to bet on the Aussie Rules bye rounds, but there were two games that were just a show-in so decided to put some on. Sydney accounted for the Cats, and Carlton accounted for the Bombers. Sadly, I put my money on Essendon, but am up a little this weel on last week.

 

I am not sure why the numbrs are showing 199.86; checked the bets and the odds and they are all there.. The account is 200 even, a handy 300% return on the £50 I put in, though, it could have been better. Still no complaints at this stage.

 

 

So far that £50 has given me 9 weeks of trials, tribulations and bit of entertainment. Maybe I will have enough to buy an hour in the Warrior at the end of it all.

[old man emu]

Go the Blue Bags!

[spacesailor]

Your doing better than I.

$50 on " Lotto " got me $ 18 .

So I sold that " winning " ticks for $ 50 . Net loss $ 0 .

I was asked , to sell it as an ' Australian souvenir ' . 

I hope they think is better than a " speeding ticket " that was sold as

SOUVENIR , some time ago .

spacesailor

 

[facthunter]

If you are driving/riding something Vintage or Veteran a speeding ticket IS a TROPHY.   Nev

[facthunter]

 When I could afford to eat out , I'd say to the waiter "do you want a Tip"? Then I'd reply." Don't bet on Horses.". Nev

[red750]

That would get you lynched in the States. Waiters are paid about $2 an hour, and rely on tips to live.

[spacesailor]

 

 

And ! .

Now they expect tips here in Australia. 

If I can remember 10% , added to your bill.

pluss 10 $  GST ,

Soon they will add a quarter , of the bill to your ' credit card  account ' .

Then there's the card surcharge . On the gst component too .

I will get the wife to cook our meal , before we leave home .

But then again . I prefer home cooked meals anyway .

A top ( local ) restaurant charged us $ 30 for desserts.  ' Aldi's cake & Aldi's icecream . I was not impressed  .

spacesailor

[Marty_d]

They may like tips here, but they don't expect them.  As Peter said, they NEED them in the US to survive.  At least we have minimum wages for service staff here.

[old man emu]

Recently California set a minimum wage for cafe workers at something like $20 per hour. The explosive noise heard was cafe doors slamming shut. Employees turning up for the morning shift were locked out.

 

I went to OfficeWorks last week and purchased something priced at $4.99. I was asked if I wanted to make a donation to some "charity" I had never heard of. I suppose the donation was the one cent that would have been the change from the $5 note I handed over. I suppose that one cent was more than the cost I would have paid if I had used plastic and the surcharge had been added.

[facthunter]

Tipping turns people off. It's often commandeered by management. One of the reasons I don't care to visit the USA.. In France Id dine where the sign said Tout est Compris What actually occurs there is each order is put on a spike on a wooden block at the end of the table and when you want to leave you ask for L'addicion and then bargain the price DOWN as its totalled.. You have to be out with a LOCAL to get that to happen but it saves a lot of money if you eat out which many locals do..  Nev

[willedoo]

17 hours ago, facthunter said:

If you are driving/riding something Vintage or Veteran a speeding ticket IS a TROPHY.   Nev

I remember back in the early 1970's a bloke had a Kawasaki 75 MT1 mini bike. On a good day they were only good for 60kph maximum on the flat. He thought he would try it out on a big downhill slope in Brisbane so he lay down flat on the tank and away he went. What he didn't see was a copper with a radar hidden in the bushes at the bottom of the hill, so he got a speeding ticket for being in the high 60's in a 60 zone. It must have been an amusing sight for the cop as the rider was a big bloke on a very tiny bike.

[octave]

I believe studies have identified a link between tipping and corruption when comparing 32 different countries.  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258189717_Here_Is_a_Tip_Prosocial_Gratuities_Are_Linked_to_Corruption

 

After all a tip is a kind of bribe when you think about it.  I understand that in some countries wages for wait staff are low and are expected to be topped up with tips.  I can see that it is quite an unfair system.  Does the pretty young waiter get tipped more often than the porky bald wiater?   Do staff in the kitchen get paid more to compensate for the fact that they do not interact with the public?

 

Luckily in this country, we are in my experience not expected to tip.   

 

I do find the concept quite demeaning on both sides. 

[facthunter]

America still believes in  slavery but they don't have to feed , shelter and clothe the slaves. The GOD there is MONEY..  Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK, like it or not, it's that time of week again... From my now 3 week ago high of £200 return on my original £50 kitty. I took at £70 hit and then a marginal gain to be @ £200 even last week. Well, I went almost strictly back to my system despite it still being part of the bye rounds (hopefully next week is the last of them) and I am able to say I am back to where I was three weeks ago (slightly north, actually):

 

My deviation from my system this week was a small bet (£10) on who I thought was likely to win, but not above my 90% sure threshold; so had I not taken the bet, I did not try and hedge this time, the end result was I am £10 less than if I had not taken the best.

 

Also, unless I hit a losing streak, I have not dipped below a £100 balance in my betting, so at the moment, I will likely finish with a 100% return at the end of season. Not bad for a few months work.

 

I have also learned, the concept of illisionary superiority is still alive and well. How I think I can beat the system when millions of others try it, I am not sure. I guess I rely on them betting with their emotions.