Betting on Sports

[old man emu]

Stop bragging and post your tips on Wednesday night so we can get a bet on.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I will post if you want.. though usually make my mind up on the day before or the day itself

[Jerry_Atrick]

However, my early thoughts are:

• Blues v Cats.. Both are coming off a bye and both don't like winning off the bye. Unless the team line ups come out showing a marked degradation of playing ability for the Blues, I am going for the Blues @ $1.61 (my UK account doesn't post odds until the Wednesday).Will depend on Harry McKay and Mitch McGovern as well as 
• Port Adeliade and Lions: With Port adeliade suffering a loss to GWS today, and needing to win to stay iin the top 8, despite the Lions on a comeback roll, it is too close to call for me to drop money on. I would be going for Port Adelaide on this one, but their form of late has been erractic at best. If I were to bet on it, at $1.82, it would be speculative and would not throw more than a tenner on it.
• The local derby sees GWS host Sydney. Sydney is the comp's clear in-form side and GWS, despite beating Port at home today (yesterday by the time you read this), are no match for Sydney. If the odds stay more or less where they are (my odds are usually slightly worse than those in Aus), It will be about £75 on that game - which would be the highest I have bet at once, so sure am I that Sydney will win. GWS' injury list is long, and most of those on the Sydney injury list have being playing the twos anyway.
• Melboure will account for North, and at $1.15, it is lower than my threshold return, but may drop £30 on it. However, North has shown some real improvement lately, taking Collingwood to a point yesterday, in a high-scoring affair. So, thinking about it, with a low return from Melbourne, and a resurgent North Melbourne, I think I will sit this out, or put £5 on North as the speculative, not that I think they will win.
• Freemantle v Gold Coast @ Perth: Well, this should be Freemantle depending on injuries. Suns don't travel well and have shown they are improving under Dimma Hardwick as coach, but they are a long way off. Freemantle, I learned this weekend, also don't travel well, but at home seem to be pretty consistent (although list their last home game if memory serves me well.. but I think that was against Sydney). I think they just scrape into my probability of winning threshold, so, @ $1.45 or thereabouts are worth a punt for say, £30-ish..

 

I can't see any upset on the favourties this round. No doubt there will be one, but it would be a freak of football rather than a belief they have a good chance at it. Maybe North will do it.

 

Now, I wouldn't say I will be on any or all of the above, but my modelling tells me if I did put the bets on I am thinking of at the moment (Blues £50, Port Adelaide £10, Sydney, £75, North £5, Freemantle £30) and I lost it all, I would be down to £82, which mneans I would adjust my figiures to keep it at or above £100. If I won it all, it would be up to £358 (assuming 5 cents worse odds per bet. The reality is I am at about 75% win; 25% loss. On the above, if Sydney lose, as GWS are probably the most likely to cause an upset and everyone else won except North, I would be c. £5 down on this week.

 

Note, I may not bet on any oif the above, nor the amounts I have stated. But they are my thoughts at this point. I also look at the forecast; A rainy and windy day can change the probabilities significantly.

 

You may ask how much time do I spend on research, etc.? It is less than I spent writing this up, because I have a natural interest in the game and follow it anyway, and would regardless. I probably put in an extra half hour a week.. But if IU spent more than 4 or so hours a week following it. I think its important not to overthink it and also vitally important not to follow the so-called "experts". For example, because it was Dusty Martin's (Riichmond) 300th game, most predicted Richmond would rise to the occasion and beat Hawthorn. The game was emotionally charged with 92,000 supporters attending - an the vast majority being Richmond supporters. He opened Richmond's and the games account with a superb kick from about 50 metres.. Arguably the best player ihe game has seen.. Yet, I stuck with the Hawks - not because they are my team, but they are a better side and would rise to the occasion. In the end, it was a 48 point (8 goal) victory to the Hawks. I have also bet against them when I know they are really likely to lose and the odds allow it.

 

Also remember, I have discovered in-play betting, so if I happen to be watchng a game that I bet on, and the in-play odds move in the way I want them to, I will place a small bet and see what happens. It once turned £10 into £70, so you can't rely on just my pre-round bets. Note, I don't make it a habit of watching games I bet on unless Hawthorn are playing or I have some free time. This weekend, I haven't watched one, but could have turned around a loss going for Freemantle and placing an in-play hedge on the Western Bulldogs as they trailed for most of the game, and by quite a margin for a while.

 

I am happy to post my bets... At this stage for the next round, it would definitely be Sydney and Carlton.. The quantum and other teams are to be deciided. But will let you know as I post them.

 

[Edit]. I am now going to watch the Hawks game.

 

 

 

Edited June 16 by Jerry_Atrick

[old man emu]

Thanks. Good insight into your thinking.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Laid 2 bets today.. £50 each to Carlton and Sydney

Edited June 20 by Jerry_Atrick

[old man emu]

I hope that the mighty Blue Bags flood your coffers with coin of the Realm.

[Jerry_Atrick]

So di I.. I had a news feed that not many changes were to be made to Geelong and put the bet on before the team sheet was announced.. Selwood (Captain) and Touey are back.. Not so sure, but gut says Carlton, still, but not by quite enough.

 

Thinking of a tenner on North...

[old man emu]

I wouldn't know one Carlton behind kicker from another. I just nominate them as my AFL sect because my dad was born in Carlton Vic, and he called them his team.

[facthunter]

That's the extent of your dadication to AFL? I survived down here without declaring who I supported. A difficult task indeed.  I never supported  any team.  It's like Blasphemy. Nev

[pmccarthy]

I don’t even know the names of the teams after 46 years in Victoria.

[Jerry_Atrick]

The last two posts are henious crimes.. that is all I can say

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK... bet 1 this weekend seems pretty safe

 

[old man emu]

Yahoooooo! Onya Blue Bags!

[Marty_d]

32 minutes ago, old man emu said:

 Blue Bags!

Are they the things around blue balls?

[facthunter]

It can't be compulsory and there is a life outside bloody Football.. Don't you lot realise how boring it  is for those around you when you're yelling about BLIND referees Those Melbourne mugs and such tripe?  Awfully antisocial.  Nev

[old man emu]

Do any of you remember your Mum using Reckitt's blue bags in the laundry?

Reckitt's Bag Blue laundry blue bags were made in Australia by Reckitt and Colman (Australia) Ltd in about the 1930s and 1940s. The blueing process was used to whiten material made yellow from soap and age. After washing, a 'blue bag' was dipped in a clean tub of cold water. Each piece of clothing was turned inside out and plunged into the water, then rinsed. 'Blue bags' were also handy as a remedy for bee stings.

[facthunter]

Yes and it was also used when you got stung by bluebottles Those bad things that get in the foam on surf beaches.    Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK..this is betting.. no time for nostalgia! 😉

 

Scoew in the GWS v Sydney game ( @pmccarthy - you will learn some team names by the end of this).

 

 

Although Sydney look like they will romp it home, you never know. So, the in-play odds are 7.5:1, so decided to place £8 on the hedge which will cover my £50 bet, but of course, cost a £28 gain on the bet to £28. Total bet value $8 even though I know one is going to lose. A 34% return should I win £20 off the total bets (Sydney) or 3.4% sould the £2 extra come home form the hedge bet (GWS), and I have no worries.

 

If Sydney win:

 

Or if GWS win:

 

Still up nicely from last week. Not intending to put another bet on this weekend....

 

Note, Brisbane smashed Port Adeliade in Adelaide, and their latest form has them in the frame for firm favourites for future betting (just lettign you know my thinking).

 

Unless I bet again (and I may be tempted), that will be this week done.

 

[Edit] I wish I waited a bit; When I put the hedge on, GWS were still looking like they may be able to turn it around. Almost immediately after, they played as if North Melbourne would be favourites against them..  So I don't see a chance of them turning it around now. As it is, the in play betting has stopped..

 

Edited June 22 by Jerry_Atrick

[facthunter]

You must have a pact with the DEVIL..    Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

I AM the devil

[facthunter]

You have to LIVE in TASSIE to be the  "REAL" thing.. Nev

[facthunter]

Ask Qantas stewards what the real McCoy is. .  Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

... Or I sold mu soul (or sole) to him.

 

Seriously, I am applyng day trading techniques to this - more or less.

 

I already follow AFL, although not religioulsy. This can be deemed as research. This is the same as traders (as opposed to investors, who also do research, but not in the same way). Traders will specialise in at least an asset class (equities, FX, commodities, or fixed income) and often in markets within asset classes. Eq, they will specialise in North American Equities, Japanese Industrial Equities, Agricultural commodities, Government Denbt or European v US currencies. I specialise in AFL. People at work ask me if I will bet on the European Championships (football). No, I won't because I know nothing about them and I think to be anything other than a punter, you have to have a very good background in it. Would I bet on the BAFL (British AFL)? No, for the same reason.

 

I am adopting a day trading approach as you can't invest in AFL games. Day trading is worried about probabilities. A day trader will worry about the probabilitiy of a price fluctuation from a previous closing price and will bet according to that.  I worry about the probability of winning and bet according to that. The difference is if the price fluctates against the trade, the trader will close their position with a loss, but it will rarely be 100%. My losses are always 100% of the bet.

 

 

Which comes to the overlay of Rrisk management. There are different methods. First is diversification. For me, it is basically bettoing on more than one game.. I try and bet on a minimum of 4 games, but in the bye rounds, that goes out the window. The next method is of limiting exposure to the trade. Note, I was adamant of putting £75 on Sydney before I put the bet on, but in the end, my threshold put be back to £50. The third way is hedging, which I did do for a slight cost (more on that in a bit).

 

So, putting it together in a system means in the early days, the chances of losses are higher, but as the winnings build, you can apply risk management and some speculation with a buffer.

 

There's nothing devilish about it. It is understanding the numbers, going eith the probabilities and managing the risks as best as one can. As in day trading there will be losses, but if you look at it over a period of time and your wins > your losses, you are doing OK.

 

It's also about holding nerve. OK, at the amounts I am in for, there are no great losses. However. as of this week,  even though my original investment was £50, I stand to lose £250. if you treat your money was what you have "earned" rather than just the original outlay, your approach remains more or less disciplined, especially risk management. Most people say, "well, I lost £50 in reality". But it is not true. If you managed to get your account to £1,000, it is yours, and you should treat any loss from that as a loss of your money. This is how firms work, too. When we set loss action trigges, they are not a loss from yesterday to today or from the amount initially invested, but a loss from "peak"; i.e. the highest amount you made on your account. That way you will exit a loss before it eats too far into profits.

 

As I was typing this, GWS werre mounting a credible comeback. So, I put another £5 on them, this time as a speculation. It paid 46:1, so should they have won, which was looking a possibility and worth the punt. It is part of the system.. a small exposure from a safe position. I knew it was still a long shot, but the odds were worth it. As it was, Sydney managed to stop the rot enough to ensure their win.

 

So the account at the close of this weeks betting for me is slighlyt worse at:

 

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Sadly, I had a few minor health issues that had be unable to stay long at a desk, and so, with only a phone, had not the appetite to tap messages. However, all is on the mend, but, as the betting app is mainly click aith putting in a couple of digits for the bets, I managed to get a couple of bets on.

 

Firstly, those sweet bets fizzled a bit when I looked at them. But, here is where I am:

• Brisbane Lions v. Melbourne. For me, Brisbane was a sure bet as they were for many because the odds, as I recall. showed it ad about 1.17 or thereabouts. Not enough for me to bet, I sat it out. The game has been played and they ended up winning, but not before trailing by something like 30 points at hald time. As I was bored at work, I checked teh AFL web site, which is how I found out. Immedately to the betting site; a tenner on Brisbane at 3:1 and they won by 5 points. £20 win.
• Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs - Freemantle don't travel well and Sydney are the yardstick. With no major injuries or suspensions, I placed £100 : 1.25. This is the riskiest  bet and they are due a loss. I just can't see it being this week.
• North Melbourne v Bulldogs - doggies are likley, but at $1.07, way too short. However, tempted to put a tenner on the Roos, except the dogs have some start studden comebacks, and the Roos lose on. So sitting this one out.
• Gold Cost v Collingwood: I think the pies will beat the suns, but it is too close to call for me. So sitting it out.
• Adelaide v GWS.. No idea who will win this one. Both at the moment are rubbish. .. sitting it out.
• Geelong and Essendon - although this is at the MCG, it is a Gellong home game. Essendon are doing very well at the moment, but Geelong are a little tired. I am about 80% certain Essendon will take the gong. So I have put £30 @ 1.85
• St. Kilda v Port Adelaide. No idea who will win this one.. easy could go either way. No betting.
• Richmond v Carlton  - Carlton easily at $1.08; Odds are too low. Though may put some on.
• West Coast v Hawks. Harly ied is back from a one week suspension and the West Coast are playing at home. This is going to be a cracker, and I cannot work out who I think will win, as West Coast, with Reid, are a fearsome unit on their home turf (travelling is a different matter). The Hawks are resurgent lately, and are feilding one of their better sides at the moment. I think this wilol be close - too close to call. Currently sitting out.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Buggah! It was a brutal one this week... I haven't done the spreadsheet, but I guess I became too cocky with my picks.

 

Losses this week:

• Sydney defeated by Freemantle: I fell for the sure bet.. I just learned that the surest bet is still no sure bet. I did write up in my preview that Sydney were due a loss, I just thought it wasn't this week. £100 - pffft - gone. On the final kick after the siren - the Dockers brought it home by a point. Lesson learned, there is no sure bet, and manage concentration risk (i.e. putting all your eggs in one basket).
• Essendon smashed by Geelong: Essendon were the up and coming team and Geelong were heading south on th ladder quickly. I don't think too many would have predicted a win for Geelong, and no one would have predicted the quantum. I was 90% sure Essendon would win, so the system was stuck to. However, that was based on not looking at all the factors; oddly, both teams are coached by brothers - Chris Scott coaches Geelong and Brad Scott coaches Essendon. I don't think the latter has had a win over the former.. if he has, they have been very few and far between. Or maybe Essendong thought it would be a walk in the part.. in this case, full of doggy dos. However, I put this down to the inevitable losses. It was £30, so no big deal and within the system. (But that Sydney game
• After the losses, I thought let's do a Nick Leeson again, as I have a 100% record with it - in the red! Collingwood were 18 points down I think at 1/2 time against Gold Coast (at home), so, for no other reaosn than they have come back before, I decided to chick £25 at them to try to get back. They ended up losing the game by 11 points..

 

At this point, I pulled out of the rest of the round; it wasn't happening and I decided to hit a stop loss.  For th record, I would have probably lost more. The odds for Carlton against Richmond were too low, and since Sydney lost the unloseable, I figured so could Carlton and would not have bet. In the St. Kilda. v Port adeliade game, I honestly couldn't tell who would win and would have gone the home team; in reality I would not have bet, but say I did, I would have lost (by two points). I was going to put a cheeky tenner on West Coast with Harley Reid to beat Hawthorn at Subiaco, but to my pleasant surprise, the Hawks came home by 61 points and a desperately needed percentage booster.

 

Total losses - £155; Total winnings; £20; so I am down £135, which leaves me a little over 50% of last week's tally.  Still on a 200%-ish return, but this one was unpleasant. And looking at next week's games, it is going to be a while before I catch up (if I do).