Betting on Sports

[onetrack]

I often wonder if someone is going to start using AI to predict wins on lotteries. I remember a story about an American woman with a Stanford PhD who gamed the TX State lottery.

She won the TX State lottery 4 times, then someone started to question why she was winning consistently. It turned out she had recognised a pattern in the numbers being drawn, and had calculated the winning numbers successfully the 4 times.

 

https://www.inc-aus.com/bill-murphy-jr/this-stanford-phd-reportedly-figured-out-texas-lottery-won-20-million-playing-over-over-for-years.html#:~:text=Her name is Joan Ginther,of dollars' worth of tickets.

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

And looking at next week's games, it is going to be a while before I catch up (if I do).

Oh how the Mighty have fallen! 

[Jerry_Atrick]

As my teacher used to say, it's not how many times you fall down; it's how many times you get up.

 

 

[Marty_d]

From a mathematical perspective they should be the same number, unless you stay down...

 

[old man emu]

7 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

From a mathematical perspective they should be the same number, unless you stay down...

 

That's a 50/50 bet.

 

Go the mighty Blue Bags!

[facthunter]

With these things, for you to win, others must lose. Same with the Stock market , but you can apply knowledge to that but generally the Boys at the top have creamed off most of the dough. Nev

[rgmwa]

15 hours ago, onetrack said:

I often wonder if someone is going to start using AI to predict wins on lotteries. I remember a story about an American woman with a Stanford PhD who gamed the TX State lottery.

She won the TX State lottery 4 times, then someone started to question why she was winning consistently. It turned out she had recognised a pattern in the numbers being drawn, and had calculated the winning numbers successfully the 4 times.

 

https://www.inc-aus.com/bill-murphy-jr/this-stanford-phd-reportedly-figured-out-texas-lottery-won-20-million-playing-over-over-for-years.html#:~:text=Her name is Joan Ginther,of dollars' worth of tickets.

When our engineering office bought its first desktop computer in the early 80's (a state-of-the-art Tandy TRS80 that cost about $3,000 at the time), we had to do all our own programming as there was virtually no software available in those days.  I thought I could put it to much better use than just writing technical applications so my main focus for the next year or so was analysing past and current Lotto results and developing arcane prediction theories that would improve my odds of picking the right numbers. Sadly despite considerable effort, I ultimately had to stick with engineering to earn a living.

[pmccarthy]

Same thing happened to me a decade earlier with a mainframe and the Melbourne cup.

[onetrack]

I can recall purchasing a Lotto numbers scheme in the early 1990's from a bloke in Qld, who obviously genuinely believed he'd calculated a system that worked to improve your chances of winning.

Sadly, despite paying for his "foolproof" system for quite some time (I STR it was over 12 mths), I never really made any decent lotto gains with it, and gave it up for random ticket purchases.

 

I must say I'm quite amazed at the number of people who have had multiple sizeable Lotto wins. Either they purchase a LOT of tickets, or they're just plain lucky.

I've been buying Lotto tickets for around 40 years, usually at least 3 times a week, and the biggest wins I've had, was one win of $120 in 1991, and one win of $350 in 2009.

 

I did win $1000 worth of new steel from a steel supplier, in a steel fabrication competition in 2013, where you had to provide photos of something you'd fabricated from steel. I built a neat mobile steel bench out of RHS offcuts, and my offering was the prizewinner!

And in 2005, I won a new bicycle in a local street carnival raffle. The bike was valued at $275. But I hadn't long bought a new bike, so SWMBO became the beneficiary of the win!

[Marty_d]

Your chances of winning the lottery are exactly the same each time (well, accounting for other factors like the number of tickets bought etc) regardless of whether you've won multiple times before or never won a cent.

[octave]

47 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

Your chances of winning the lottery are exactly the same each time (well, accounting for other factors like the number of tickets bought etc) regardless of whether you've won multiple times before or never won a cent.

 

Yes in fact if you chose the numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 (not sure how many numbers you chose in lotto)  you have the same chance of winning as any other combination of numbers. If you toss nine heads in a row the odds of the tenth throw being heads or tails is still 50/50. This feels odd but it is the "Gambler's Fallacy" 

 

What Is the Gambler's Fallacy?

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events.

 

This line of thinking is incorrect since past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK..this week was treading water from last week. I think I gaiend a couple of $ all up:

 

My bets this week were:

• $30 on Sydney to beat St. Kilda at St. Kilda's home. What peeved me off is I had a chance in the first quarter to hedge the bet at 80:1 for the Saints as they were getting walloped. But decided against it.. That was a mistake. Sydney list by I think 2 points thanks to a miss on the siren. Well done to the saints for coming back from what lkooked like a thrashing.
• North Melbourbe v Gold Coast. This was specualtive as North Melbourne aren't terribly good and Gold Coast don't travel well. I put £15 on North as a sepculative at 3.30. North got the chocolates and it covered the Sydney loss.
• Calton v. GWS = Who would have thought Carlton would lose by 2 goals, even in Sydney. Darn it. Lost £25.
• Geelong v. Hawthorn: Well, I was certain Geelong was going to win, as James sicily was out, and there is no coincidence that when he is out, the Hawks generally lose. So I put £30 in at 1.55. Geelong won.

 

All in all, about where I was last week.

Edited July 7 by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK.. Two new lessons this week. First. Try not to bet when Wolfie has been around! I went to put a bet on, and somehow ended up with a type of bet I didn't even know existed: A double. Second lesson, even when breaking the rule of the first lesson, you can learn something.

 

OK.. last night, after another day of drudgery (I used to really like this job), I went for a pizza, and, well, not Wolfie, but not far off.. And yes, it was an Aussie wine.

 

Anyway, not to bore you, inder the influence, which probably unlocked more sciende than normal, here are my bets this weel:

• Geelong to beat Collingwood. There were a couple of injuries to names in Collingwood, including Mihocek, while Geelon are firing on all cylinders and made no changes. They ended up winning, which was a relief.. I'll explain later.
• I picked West Coast to beat Brisbane in Perth. West Coast at home are not bad, and with coach Adam Simpson departing, there is a good chance they may get up. However, his parting gesture was to drop Jack Darling, so I think I may well be in a spot of bother on this one. Harley Ried is playing, and in AFL, he is the equivalent of god at home, so should be right.
• I have gone for Port Adelaide to beat Brisbane - at Brisbane. This is quite literally the stupidest bet I have placed. Charlie Dixon returns for Port, which was a real driver to my decision. But he isn't quite the player he used to be, and is after a long layoff. I am reaching for Mr Hardy's number as I type.
• Essendon to beat Mlebourne - Without Petracca, and the Oliver issue, and Essendon having my favourite player, Jakey Stringer, they are going to pummel Melbourne. Yeah, Melbourne trounced West Coast at home, but Essendon are in a different league - and those are words from a Hawks supporter.
• Hawks to beat Fremantle - Sicily back, and in Tassie.. Very hard for Freo to win.
• Carlton to beat Western Bulldogs.. Can't see any other result.

 

I'll fill you in on the rest laters.

[facthunter]

My father used to study the form guide and all the data on the horses. Breeding line,  who was the trainer and if the track was heavy  how the horse went recently and what the weight it was carrying and I'm SURE he did  ok. It gave him an interest for the week and the betting was SP. (starting price). which was illegal but couldn't be stopped.. My gambling would be limited to a stake in the Melbourne Cup sweep at the school at which I taught at the time. I don't really have the gambling bug Though I  did run my self managed Superfund for years and did much better than the Irish rogue I trusted it with Later who depleted it into peanuts  quite successfully for himself when I wasn't paying much attention and trusted HIM.  Nev

[onetrack]

I have a Vietnam Veteran mate who was a gunner in the Artillery. He has a real knack for maths, in fact I reckon he's got a mind like a computer. He was selected for the artillery because of his maths skills, the gunners had to do quick and accurate paper calculations back in the 60's to enable accurate placing of rounds.

You had to be able to place rounds within 100 metres of your troops without hitting them - from 8 or even 10kms away.

 

This mate used to study the form guide until he knew the full track record of every neddy - and pick out the potential winners. He would then bet on them, and win almost every time. I've seen him win $2800 in one go, and that was over 25 yrs ago.

But then he suddenly stopped betting on the neddies. When I asked him why, he said, "Because I could see it could easily become a life-controlling obsession, and I don't want to go down that road".

I understand he's never bet on neddies ever since he made that decision to stop. He doesn't really need the money anyway - he's worth millions, just his investments in property trusts would have paid him handsomely, and he's inherited multi-million dollar properties as well.

[facthunter]

He can get rid of that quick time by marrying a gold digger. Lots is never enough when you have it. There's no shortage of hangers on when you're rich. You're the fool washing down the Boat while the other Heroes are chatting up  your Neglected Missus..    Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

Wow.. Wouldn't it be better if Suju picked the numbers himself and then kept, say $100m a week, and gave away the rest to the needy Now that would be a real spiritualistic person in my book

 

(Mods, I know, I know.. but that was so bad, it deserved it)

[Jerry_Atrick]

I have  been quiet the last 3 weeks.. I have suffered quite some losses; almost all games decided by less than a goal. I haven't deposited any money in the account, but am now just a smidge over my original investment. The one thign about betting against playing the stock market (in shares that is, not derivatives) is that my system requires a lot of wins to make up a loss as the odds I pick are usually between 25% and 33% return. Rounds 19 and 20 smashed me around a bit, so came off, but still played on paper.

 

My picks this week would have been Melbourne, West Coast (at 2.5 : 1, but would have put a small amount on as a speculative),. North, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, Hawthorn, Essendon, and Brisbane. However, the odds would have knocked out Brisbane  and North as they were way too short.

 

The results for the round:

 

@old man emu - I think you need to have a chat to Carlton - They have come right off the boil Lost by 3 pts, Haks lost by 2; At least Essendon won by 1.

 

This has been a year where the clubs have converged in terms of performance making it difficult to apply predictive logic. But also, look at the ladder; the difference between first and 12th is a mere 4 games...

 

Sheesh, how is a punter supposed to screw the system?

 

[onetrack]

I caught up with the BIL (retired ex-copper) last Friday, haven't seen him for a while. He's right into betting on cryptocurrencies. He's got about a dozen on the go, he watches them like stocks and shares.

He claims he never gambles big on them, just watches them and when they sink, he buys some. Then they come back, and he's made a gain. He's up about $1000 on his original (small) investment.

He says he only does it for fun and doesn't care if he wins or not. He's always been a bit of a gambler, I think this is his alternative to the casino (which he used to go to regularly, but which he never seems to go to, now).

 

He also raved on about Hivemapper, he loves it. He bought a Hivemapper camera and fitted it to his Hilux, and runs the camera all the time he's driving. He says you drive through the back streets to your destination and it earns you more, as Hivemapper doesn't pay so much for well-travelled routes. Hivemapper show the routes that are less travelled, and which they want mapped.

 

They pay in Hivemapper "Honey" tokens, which can be converted into cash. He's earnt about $1000 in 6 mths of driving around with the Hivemapper camera. But he also said the camera cost him $1000! - so not a lot of gain at this point. However, he'll start to see more financial gain soon, especially if he travels the "roads less travelled".

 

Hivemapper brag that they're out to beat Google Mapping, and they've certainly picked a winning method, harnessing the power of everyday motorists.

 

Edited August 5 by onetrack

[Jerry_Atrick]

Well, I did my last roll of the dice today.. To be honest, I sort of stopped doing the analysis when I stopped posting regularly... And sure enough, the favourite (Geelong) got comprehensively accounted for by St. Kilda. Rounds 4 through 22 (19 weeks) of "entertainment" for £50... I was tempted to top up for tomorrow's games, but, heck, I need to keep this shirt on my back...

 

Anyone here good for a loan?  Preferably margin to put on the stock market. Oh wait, darn it.. the rebound already happened 🙂

 

If there is any consolation, the pundits have called this the wierdest season in living memory.. 

 

Ah well, back to more contributions to the forums.. I bet (pardon the pun) everyone is looking forward to that...

[old man emu]

5 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Ah well, back to more contributions to the forums.. I bet (pardon the pun) everyone is looking forward to that...

Hope you'll be hammering out more posts in your reno thread.