Sensationalist Bullshit

[old man emu]

You can't have missed  headlines like these.

 

"THE MURDER RATE IS SOARING !"         "SURGE IN DOMESTIC VIOLENCE RELATED HOMICIDES"

 

They are as factual as "POLITICIAN SELF-REPORTS OWN CORRUPT ACTIVITY"

 

If you are a heterosexual male, as are the majority of males in Australian society, then are you happy to have it claimed to the World that you are a homicidal, controlling sex maniac? That's what the Media is portraying you as. You are being blamed by politicians and certain members of the female persuasion for an alleged increase the rate of murders that is being trumpeted in the Media.

 

First, let's get a handle on the way data  is are compared. There are two numbers used to give a value to the data so that trends can be observed. The first is simply the number of homicides that occur in the year under revue. The second is the size of the population in that year. The calculation for the value is determined is simply:

(Number of homicides) divided by (Size of the population)

Since the population is a very large number the unit of size is 100,000 people.

 

Who analyses this data and produces the rate? It is an Australian Government authority called the Australian Institute of Criminology, which amongst other areas of crime, runs the National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP), which is Australia’s only national data collection on homicide incidents, victims and offenders. The NHMP has collected and analysed information on all homicides (murder and manslaughter, excluding driving causing death) in Australia since 1990. 

 

What the analysis shows is that, since 1989/90 there has been a steady decline in the homicide rate. The number of homicides has decreased from about 300 to roughly 225, while the population has risen from approximately 17 million to 27 million. As a result, the homicide rate has fallen from 0.68/100,00 to 0.3/100,000. 

 

The number of domestic-related homicides has fallen from around 110 -115 from 1989/90 to 2010 to around 80 from 2020. This is a fall from 0.68/100,000 to 0.3/100,000, a fall of over 50% based on population increase.

 

All the figures I have quoted can be found in greater detail here: https://www.aic.gov.au/statistics/homicide Look for the complete data using the links in the 'Featured Data" 

 

This data is freely available to anyone. However, it appears that those intent on driving some sort of gender-based agenda haven't the computer skills to find it, or are unable to accept facts that undermine the rhetoric that powers their agenda.

 

Of course, I have to end this with a caveat. Humans have always killed humans, and will continue to do so, but to sensationalise an agenda that vilifies one portion of humanity is a completely different thing to denying the facts that the habit is dying out slightly.

 

 

 

 

[Marty_d]

I agree in general with what you're saying.  If the stats show that the murder rate is going down, especially in the area in question (domestic & family violence), then that's a good thing and should be published as a caveat in news stories about D&FV.

 

As far as "are you happy to have it claimed to the World that you are a homicidal, controlling sex maniac? ", I don't think anyone thinks that the mere fact of your gender means that, just as the existence of female prostitutes doesn't make one assume that every woman will have sex for money.

 

Not sure why you emphasised heterosexual there either, as the recent double murder in Sydney proved, this is not a phenomenon unique to hetero males.

 

 

[old man emu]

52 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

Not sure why you emphasised heterosexual there either, as the recent double murder in Sydney proved, this is not a phenomenon unique to hetero males.

Domestics involving non-heterosexuals are probably as common as a percentage of relationships as for the other group, but the numbers of non-heterosexuals is said to be about 10% of the population, so that group is smaller than the hetero group. Also, for fairly obvious reasons, domestics involving homosexual men do not have a female as the intimate partner. 

 

The reason I placed the emphasis on hetereosexual males is that the agenda covers all males, like the Canvas and Tarpaulin Act. It would seem that the mantra of the women making the most noise, without consulting the unbiased facts is:

All men are bastards.

Bastards or worse,

And we don't want them

In our universe.

 

One thing that annoys me about the analysis of the data is that it does not break down the non-DV cases into other subsets. For example, how many homicides also have an organised crime link? I'd wager that the trend in that subset is upwards.

[nomadpete]

Also we collectively are afraid to delve into the statistics that might identify homicide/violence perpetrated by ethnic, or cultural subsets of the population. Such data could help targeting areas that might need greater protection or support.

[red750]

Religious differences (Muslim/Judaism/Christianity) and crim-v-crim are two significant factors. 

[old man emu]

4 hours ago, red750 said:

Religious differences (Muslim/Judaism/Christianity) and crim-v-crim are two significant factors. 

I disagree with your claim that, in Australia, religious differences are involved in the figures in any significant way. I also wonder if homophobic murders are at similar rates as in the past. I think that those presently the age group that in the past was responsible for "poofter bashing" are more accepting of homosexuality.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Intuitively, I tgend to agree with OIME.. If the murder rate is reducing as a percentage of population and immigration is a signficant factor of population growth, then does it not stand to reason it is likely that, if anything, those of different ethnic cultures are probably even lower than the median per 100K?

[nomadpete]

My point is, we don't know.

Ststs can be helpful if they are detailed enough to diagnose the possible issues

[old man emu]

9 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

those of different ethnic cultures are probably even lower than the median per 100K?

There are a lot of things to look at when you start to analyse the data looking at several other factors. Regarding population growth, how much of it involves family units? It's possible that a lot of those immigration numbers are made up of people whose marital status is "single". That would be the case with workers and students. There are many examples of people from other cultures being involved in DV homicides.

 

The more you think about the published data and questions the "what ifs", you start to see that it is not so finely analysed. For example, would looking at the number of incidents in the various major sub-groups instead of the number of victims show a different picture? 

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

I wasn't intentind to say that immigrants don't commit crimes or murder people; just, intuitively, without having dived into the numbers, the myth that immigrants bring disproprortionate crime to the country may be a little overrateed.

[spacesailor]

I. DISAGREE .

it appears 'all. ' the Melbourne shop fire-bombings are reportedly( TV ).

Eastern Europeans work .

spacesailor

[old man emu]

58 minutes ago, spacesailor said:

it appears 'all. ' the Melbourne shop fire-bombings are reportedly( TV ).Eastern Europeans work .

Those fires are simply part of war between gangs for the control of the illegal tobacco market. Notice that nothing similar seems to be happening in Sydney, Brisbane or Adelaide. Maybe there isn't a similar market in those cities. 

 

Why does it appear that immigrants are involved in more crime? Simply because they are willing to get off their arses and do something in order to survive. Gaining the proceeds of crime, especially crimes that deal with heavily taxed items like tobacco and alcohol, is a pretty safe and reasonably undetected way to make big quids.

[spacesailor]

Stated on TV as " Eastern European "  rivalry. 

spacesailor

 

[old man emu]

But are we talking of hundreds of Eastern Europeans, or a couple of gangs of up to fifty or so in total membership?

[spacesailor]

100 18 year old  ( aussie ) gang would be a wakeup call .

spacesailor

[facthunter]

What TV do you watch space? Smoking is dangerous. Nev

[nomadpete]

5 hours ago, facthunter said:

What TV do you watch space? Smoking is dangerous. Nev

Standing near a tobacco shop can be fatal