nomadpete Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) 2 hours ago, facthunter said: How long will a Musk-Trump relationship last? Trump will be too busy getting EVEN with anyone who didn't like him. Nev Musk is betting TRump will be busy with revenge. Happy so long as TRump gives him free rein to do whatever he wants. They are both ruthless and self obsessed. Edited October 28 by nomadpete 1 2
willedoo Posted October 28 Posted October 28 If Harris wins, I doubt Trump will just fade away. He'll still be there for the term with a large and loony portion of the population totally devoted to him. I can visualise him trying his usual hardest to destabilise the Democrat administration. Whether the Trump infection of the Republican party would continue is a guess. Maybe they'll write him off as a loser, but if he still has a groundswell of Republican voter support his hold on the party will probably remain. A Trump loss means he can still run in 2028. It wouldn't be in Trump's DNA to accept that he might be too old by then. You would normally think that if he declines mentally in the next four years that he would lose support. The problem is, the crazier he gets, the more rusted on his crazy devotees become. 1 1
Jerry_Atrick Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) This election is really hard to call. The polls apparently are showing them neck and neck. Harris has "natural" disadvantages in the US: a) a womnan and b) of colour. While in the progressive states, she will probably romp it home, in reality, most of the USA are still a little more "traditional" in their values. She also has the burden of having been the VP under Biden, which although seem to have steered the ship relatively calmly through choppy waters, is an administration that is seen in the US as a realtively weak one. Where Trump has really capitalised is that the USA is ferociously patriotic - often times the line between partiotism and nationalism is blurred. Trump's America first will resonate with a lot of voters purely out of patriotism - a more measured approach by the Democrats is seen as not putting America's interests first. And, the yanks are up for a fight (as long as it is on someone elses land, preferably using someone elses forces).. So a belligerent leader who is ready to talk tough to his foreign counterparts has a certain appeal to the Americans. His tough talk and action got more NATO members contributing 2% GDP to defence; notably Canada is still not there yet. Now, according to an FT article, they are going to play hard ball with countruies that the USA has a trading deficit with. Yes, economists warn protectionism will result in costs increasing at home. But what pollies and economists don't often realise is that the majority of the population earn well under average earnings and they, especially today, most are struggling with the cost of living. If they can't afford something today, it matters not that it becomes more expensive. And as more and more of the mioddle class with families struggle, they become more and more disillusioned with the whole thing. If you look at Brexit as an example, the pollies and economists that were remainers were all about "why would you be crazy enough to vote to be worse off?" Well, if you're unable to afford the basics, then who cares - so and so is offering a way out - trying something new (ironically by going back tot he good old days) over the same ol' same ol'. Voilla! You have your votes. In Brexit, affluent areas vvoted to remain, while the vast majority of areas to vote leave were not affluent (generally speaking). If you look at the US elections, affluent areas will vote Democrats while the others will look for putting America first. On that basis, it will be hard for Harris to take the gong. But, Trump and the more nutter types may well just sway enough people to say, "Nah.. I'll wait for someone a little less unhinged." Edited October 28 by Jerry_Atrick 1 1
red750 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 Did you see anything of his New York rally in Madison Square Garden? The biggest collection of lunatics ever seen. 2
Jerry_Atrick Posted October 28 Posted October 28 (edited) No, I didn't... But I picked points in the YT vid.. and there were also some celebs who have traction in the US middle classes.. And, of course, Musk has his fandoms as well. The reality is humanity seems to be going off the rails a bit and as disaffected people are seeking their "fair share", they will turn to nutters... They did it in the 30s.. and they will do it again. Let's nopt forget, there are billionaires now who are only too happy to show their stripes. I am coming off Amazon thanks to Bezos stopping the ashington Post, which he owns, from printing their endorsement (and I would have come off, even if he stopped an endorsement for Trump - editorial independence is right up there for me). Edited October 28 by Jerry_Atrick 2
rgmwa Posted October 28 Author Posted October 28 (edited) It will be interesting to see if the polls are right. They have been wrong often enough before. If Trump does get back in it will also be interesting to see how many MAGA supporters still think he’s their saviour in a year from now. They will all be worse off, as will we most likely, but they may then finally start to see him for the moron that he is. Edited October 28 by rgmwa 1 1
Marty_d Posted October 28 Posted October 28 Don't underestimate the power of self delusion. They will make excuses for him no matter what he does. 2
rgmwa Posted October 28 Author Posted October 28 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Marty_d said: Don't underestimate the power of self delusion. They will make excuses for him no matter what he does. They won't have to. He'll do it for them. Edited October 28 by rgmwa 1 2
pmccarthy Posted October 28 Posted October 28 If assessed on the policies alone and not the personalities, apparently Trump will win it easily. 1 1
old man emu Posted October 28 Posted October 28 The overt interference in the US Presidential election has begun. Police say they have identified a "suspect vehicle” connected to incendiary devices that set fires in ballot drop boxes in Oregon and Washington states early Monday. Washington and Oregon are both vote-by-mail states. Registered voters receive their ballots in the mail a few weeks before elections and then return them by mail or by placing them in ballot drop boxes. There is a tracking system to show that a person who received a ballot has voted and the ballot paper was received (after the drop box is emptied at a counting house. All I can say is that I am so glad that the system of compulsory voting, and the means by which deliver our vote that we have in Australia is the best example of practical democracy there is. Sure, it can be a pain to have to go to a polling station and go through the process, but you can be assured that your contribution to the election, whether it be a clear vote for a particular candidate, or simply an informal vote, is included in the count. 2 2
red750 Posted October 28 Posted October 28 Those other speakers in New York were something else - "She is the anti-Christ!". - "There is a floating mass of garbage out there in the ocean, it's called Puerto Rico!" - "America for the Americans ONLY!" (So isolationist) 1
willedoo Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Not long to go now. I'm not a betting man but I'm tipping a Trump victory. 1
willedoo Posted October 31 Posted October 31 It would help Harris a lot if they kept Biden sedated at home until the election is over. 1
nomadpete Posted October 31 Posted October 31 1 hour ago, pmccarthy said: Trump for sure. Kamala slips every day. Are you trying to suggest that Kamala can only win by stealing the election?
rgmwa Posted October 31 Author Posted October 31 It will come down to how many people in the swing states make the effort to vote. Trump may generally have the edge in the polls but they only measure voting intentions, not votes lodged and counted. Anything could happen at this point and Joe is not helping. 1
nomadpete Posted October 31 Posted October 31 I think it's time to start restocking my doomsday wine supply.
facthunter Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Put the wine in your Nuculer (US ) bomb shelter. with "US refugees stay out" clearly on the door. Nev 1
old man emu Posted October 31 Posted October 31 It's crystal clear that Harris is the logical choice, however she has three major disadvantages in US politics: 1. She's female. 2. She's not a WASP. 3. She's not a celebrity. I'm afraid that the only thing that will flow from this election is Orange-aid for the wealthy. 1
facthunter Posted October 31 Posted October 31 Those who didn't vote for Trump will have to leave the USA. Nev
willedoo Posted October 31 Posted October 31 The other problem for Harris is that for a lot of the saner Republican supporters it's all about policy. They're prepared to put up with Trump because they believe Republican policy is better for them and better for the country than the Democrat alternative. I think there's more chance of it being very close as opposed to a major victory by either side. I'd agree with the suggestion that it might come down to which side has the most motivated voters to actually register a vote. There's been a bit of delusion among Harris supporters expecting her honeymoon period to result in a major defeat of Trump. One bunch on YouTube were all excited over stats showing the increase in vote among white collar college graduates. Clinton increased it 5%, Biden 9%, and polling suggested an increase of 18% for Harris. Well whoopy doo, that's great if you restrict voting to white collar college graduates. It would be a bit like taking a poll among Canberra public servants to get an idea how people will vote in Bundaberg or Broken Hill. 2
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