Queensland Election

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, willedoo said:

We might know by tonight whether it's business as usual or we set our clocks back thirty years.

That's only an adjustment of ten years.

[willedoo]

I don't know where that leaves Tasmania. When I went down there in 2016, it reminded me of Queensland 40 years ago. So that's 40 + 20 =

[willedoo]

I'm not sure why, but the Greens are going backwards. That could be a problem for Labor in regard to Green preferences adding to their total.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Watching the ABC, the thought is the federal performance of the Greens..

 

Too early to call but it is looking like the LNP are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory 

[willedoo]

16 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Watching the ABC, the thought is the federal performance of the Greens..

 

Too early to call but it is looking like the LNP are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory 

Yes, I heard that about the federal effect with the Qld. Greens. At this stage it's the pre-poll votes to come in later which could sink Labor. If they do lose, it looks like Steven Miles would have saved a lot of furniture for the next election, albeit on some small margins.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes.. pre polling votes coming in and Labor are pretty well out of the race. But this is not much different to the Labor federal win.. what should have been a romp was just getting over the line. It is not clear if the LNP will get a majority, but it is looking increasingly likely. But it won't be a rout that it probably should have been

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Well, QLD has a new government. I always watch election night which is so much easier here because it is 2:15 Saturday afternoon when it has wrapped up.

 

It was a bit of a good one, too.. It was a cliffhanger for a lot of the night. When Miles gave his speech, it was certainly not in the bag, thought it was getting there for Crusafilli. However, on reflection, he may well have wished he hadn't quite made that speech.

 

This was the first time I saw Crusafilli in action, and if he is as good running the state as his specchwriter is of writing speeches and he is of delivering them, then at least whatever is done will sound good. I thought while Miles was a little less than gracious, Crusafilli was very humble and gracious in victory, even wishing the best the the opposition MPs who lost their seats. I was wondering if he may even have a federal shot in him...

 

This election ddoes not bode well for Albo. Yes - the ALP are always batting off the back foot with the media bias they are up against. However, if the QLD results have been in some way influenced by federal politics, then Mackay and I think it was Bundaberg, which were very safe  Labor seats, flipped.

 

Next 6 months are going to be very interesting.

[old man emu]

Eleven days (Australian time) until we know the results of probably the most crucial election so far this century - the US Presidential.

[red750]

8 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

first time I saw Crusafilli

Jerry, it is spelt Crisafulli.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Thans, Peter

[facthunter]

IF the new QLD govt acts like the NT one has it will help Federal Labor. The Labor base in Qld is big enough to be a base to build from and an opposition that can be vocal.  This is probably the best outcome Labor QLD could expect. They've held power for most of the last 25 years. Did a good job with the Covid.. It's a Murdoch saturated  media State..   Nev

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, facthunter said:

They've held power for most of the last 25 years.

Nev, that should read most of the last 35 years. There's the Goss Labor government from 1989 to 1993. Labor has been in power for 30 of the last 35 years. Since 1989 the conservatives have been in twice before now. The Borbidge coalition government for two years, 1996 to 1998, and the Newman LNP government for a full term, 2012 to 2015.

 

This lot now are only the second to win a general election since Joh did in 1986. Borbidge's Liberal/National coalition took over part way through a term when a by-election changed the numbers.

[willedoo]

13 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

This was the first time I saw Crusafilli in action, and if he is as good running the state as his specchwriter is of writing speeches and he is of delivering them, then at least whatever is done will sound good. I thought while Miles was a little less than gracious, Crusafilli was very humble and gracious in victory, even wishing the best the the opposition MPs who lost their seats. I was wondering if he may even have a federal shot in him...

That's the way he wanted the campaign to run, with everyone seeing him as Mr. Nice Guy. Unfortunately for him, his true colours come out when he's under the blowtorch. As someone said about the campaign, the more people saw of him, the less they liked what they saw. Under pressure he comes over as slippery, evasive, and generally untrustworthy. Like a lot of the LNP, his strong point is slogans. Time will tell if they can convert their slogans to any sort of competent government.

 

I think if pre-poll voting was restricted to one week and the campaign went a week longer, the LNP might well have failed to get a majority. We could have had a Labor minority government with the KAP guaranteeing supply. A lot of pre-poll votes are traditionally locked in as favouring the conservatives due to the older demographic pre-polling. But this time around, pre-poll votes were in such high numbers that they wouldn't be restricted to the traditional demographic. By the high numbers recorded, there would have been quite a few voters who locked their vote in early before the LNP campaign ran off the rails. A lot of those voters would have flipped their vote if they'd left it later and been able to vote after all the cards were on the table.

 

Regarding the backlash for Federal Labor. Queensland is normally strong for Labor on a state basis, but the LNP does far better on a federal level. The electorate has given labor a kick up the bum in the state, so might go a bit easier on them at next year's federal election, but they might not. It could also go the same way for the federal election. Cost of living is such a big issue now that voters are running out of patience and willing to try something new. Queensland was a good example of that, swapping a reasonably competent government for slogans. I'll suck a boil if the cost of living here is cheaper after three years of an LNP government. I don't recall any period in history where costs have gone down right across the board and made life easier for everyone.

[facthunter]

Price rises have more to do with external causes like the Russian and middle east situation  The misleading advice from Phillip Rowe (Reserve Bank) didn't help the situation either.. The Federal opposition Dutton and the Greens have blocked legislation that would have helped also. It suits them politically to frustrate Labor and WE lose out as a consequence.  Nev.

[willedoo]

The greens were hoping to end up with up to six seats in the Queensland parliament, but it looks like they could lose the two they started with. 

[facthunter]

The Younger Katter is NOT happy with Crisafulli's treatment of  KP Party. . Nev

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

The Younger Katter is NOT happy with Crisafulli's treatment of  KP Party. . Nev

Noddy's crapped in his own nest there. A lot can happen in four years with possible defections, retirements and by-elections. He might need the KAP one day.

[willedoo]

As much as I don't relish the thought of four years of LNP government, there's another aspect to it, and that is how complacent would the Labor government have been in another four year term? Maybe they'd be revitalised with a new premier in Steven Miles, or maybe just settle in to business as usual.

 

David Crisafulli has said the LNP has learned from their mistakes and rebuilt, but that party doesn't have a very good record of learning by their mistakes. To be fair, the other side are not so good at learning either. Election defeats always bring about humble words like we'll take a hard look at ourselves and learn from mistakes, make some tough decisions and do better next time etc., but after the dust settles they all go back to their usual game.

[willedoo]

The only thing I had against the Queensland Labor government was taking on the Olympics when we have problems like an over stressed, under funded health system. The reality there is that both major parties would jump at the chance to host the Olympics, so my beef with the government on that issue wouldn't be solved by changing horses.

[facthunter]

 Maybe others like the idea. It's ahead of the commonwealth games but in the same vein. Athletes spend a lot of time preparing. At least the gov't was going to use existing structure. People expect the gov't to wipe their bums but don't want to pay tax. I would NOT like the job of keeping Queenslanders HAPPY for all the Tea in China.  Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

I would NOT like the job of keeping Queenslanders HAPPY for all the Tea in China. 

I think that can be said of most electorates in the world.

[onetrack]

I see where the Katter Party vote halved in this election. What happened, to bring that about?

[Jerry_Atrick]

5 hours ago, willedoo said:

That's the way he wanted the campaign to run, with everyone seeing him as Mr. Nice Guy. Unfortunately for him, his true colours come out when he's under the blowtorch. As someone said about the campaign, the more people saw of him, the less they liked what they saw. Under pressure he comes over as slippery, evasive, and generally untrustworthy. Like a lot of the LNP, his strong point is slogans. Time will tell if they can convert their slogans to any sort of competent government.

 

I think if pre-poll voting was restricted to one week and the campaign went a week longer, the LNP might well have failed to get a majority. We could have had a Labor minority government with the KAP guaranteeing supply. A lot of pre-poll votes are traditionally locked in as favouring the conservatives due to the older demographic pre-polling. But this time around, pre-poll votes were in such high numbers that they wouldn't be restricted to the traditional demographic. By the high numbers recorded, there would have been quite a few voters who locked their vote in early before the LNP campaign ran off the rails. A lot of those voters would have flipped their vote if they'd left it later and been able to vote after all the cards were on the table.

 

Regarding the backlash for Federal Labor. Queensland is normally strong for Labor on a state basis, but the LNP does far better on a federal level. The electorate has given labor a kick up the bum in the state, so might go a bit easier on them at next year's federal election, but they might not. It could also go the same way for the federal election. Cost of living is such a big issue now that voters are running out of patience and willing to try something new. Queensland was a good example of that, swapping a reasonably competent government for slogans. I'll suck a boil if the cost of living here is cheaper after three years of an LNP government. I don't recall any period in history where costs have gone down right across the board and made life easier for everyone.

For the record, when I said if Cruisafulli (thanks, Peter) can ru n the government as good as his speech, there was a touch of sarcasm. Talk is cheap, as they say. However, I have not seen too much of Crisafulli - well, to be honest, I hadn't seen any of him during the campaign, so one was thinking maybe the benefit of the doubt.  Here are a some take-aways from the election night of the LNP policy:

• They, like many political parties are very careful to construct their wording to  allow them to weasel their way out of things. That is more of a reflection on us than them, but they were heavily implying early in the evening they will not support nuclear and at the end of the evening they were clear to say it is not on their agenda.. i.e. they are ambivalent to it. Now we have Littleproud expecting the QLD government to work with the federal government in introducing nuclear power should the coalition get into power (pardon the pun) at the next election.
• Their "adult crime, adult time" centrepiece policy is a somewhat populist policy. West's scam of the week shows how youth offending has come down over the last 10 years, however, that by itself does not tell the whole story. For example, is it petty crime that has dropped markedly while seriouc crime has risen, giving on overall drop in the "crime rate" but the negative impact actually increasing? There are things in the policy snippets I say that sound progressive - early intervention, better intervention and reforming during their detention, and support once released so give them a better chance ot going on the straight and narrow. But there is some question about it. Say a kid commits murder at 12 years of age, and is heltp to the same level of culpability as an adult and is sentenced for 15 years. He will receive 5 years of intervention, and reforming, and assume it is working... But, at 18, he is turfed into an adult prison.. where let's face it, he is likely to learn some seriously bad habits. Would that not potentially undo all of the good stuff that was done? Seems counterintuitive to me. But also, what does it say about what we should be doing with our adult prison population to reduce recidivism and ultimately benefit socieety? I think it is actually a good start, but needs some tweaking, but the adult crime, adult time to me is populist and was actually a fear campaign (which they accused Labor of).  But, policy has to start somewhere, I suppose.
• The then shadow trreasurer in the ABC election night panel did give me cause for concern. But so did the Labor bloke (Cameron someoneorother, who looks like he will be the next leader going to the next election). There was too much ducking and weaving by the LNP fella on the panel; When will they realise their electorate want straight answers to the question - even if the answer in nuanced - have the nuance relating to the answer. He may have well answered most of the questions with,. "Do you know, the sky is blue during the day".. to many questions.
• I am not sure QLD is in that bad a state of play... compared to the rest of the country. It was claimed QLD has borne the brint of the cost of living crisis (i.e. the worst performer), but, there are structural issues for that. So, obviously, the Courier Mail and  their sister publications has a lot to do with it.

 

The other take away is the Greens probably had the worst result of the election, and I understand why - at least from a federal influence. They seem to have become the part of protest in the minds of the electorate, and while we like a bit of protest, we don't like holding things up beyind making your point. I can't speak too much of the QLD branch, but federally, I bet the rue the day they let Thorpe into the party. The young fella who's name escapes me, was seen as a bit of a rebel with a cause on the housing policy, but even he is now being seen as a rablle rouser.. and that probably describes how a lot of the electorate see them. OK, I only get snippets, but even my support (of which I would have happily voted for them in the last federal election), is waning a bit. The ABC ran a piece on their news feed that the QLD branch is blaming Labor for pursuing Green's seats. Well, that is politics and one has to find ways to negate these attacks:

 

Sometimes it's OK to say we didn't resonate with the electorate and we have to do better.

 

11 hours ago, old man emu said:

Eleven days (Australian time) until we know the results of probably the most crucial election so far this century - the US Presidential.

Indeed, however, (as I have said before), it is weird that the most important election in the world  does not allow those materially impacted by it to participate in it (hardly call Russia or China's mandates an election of the masses, anyway).

 

For us, or what we can impact, the next 6 months is going to be interesting.

 

 

[willedoo]

59 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

The other take away is the Greens probably had the worst result of the election, and I understand why - at least from a federal influence

Some say the Greens have drifted away from their roots and have become the party of protest and enragement instead of presenting a credible alternative with workable policies.

 

As far as the shadow treasurer goes, his evasiveness when asked direct questions on prickly subjects is not just him, but was right across the board with LNP candidates. I would say the order has come from above to not give a yes or no answer to those tricky questions, and to stick to the party line - "we have a plan" or "that's not part of our plan". It's been like a cracked record the last couple of weeks.

[facthunter]

Qld is the only State without an upper House and with a party called the LNP and  has the biggest  Murdoch influence Jerry.   The NEW Gov't promised a 100 day result which may prove a bit of a mistake. He's ANTI Duttons Nuclear answer also. . Dutton and Littleproud say IF they get elected THEY will FORCE ALL the states to comply as well as  do it with the Peoples money. ????? .Nev