A Tariff led Depression

[old man emu]

When we were worrying about what would happen if Trump lost the election, I suggested that if civil unrest occurred in the USA, then the World economy would be in danger of entering another Depression. Well, he won and we can forget about that scenario and begin to worry about what is going to happen if he imposes tariffs on imports to the USA.

 

While tariffs on imported goods let a country's manufacturers whose production costs are higher that those in exporter countries compete on a equal footing for sales, they generally mean that prices rise in the country that imposes tariffs. On the other side of the balance, the countries which have been exporting will have the level of their exports to the tariff imposing country reduced. Those exporters will still be producing products, but will need to seek markets elsewhere amongst the countries that have also lost market access.

 

The incoming administration has already flagged its economic agenda: lowering taxes, raising tariffs, withdrawing from key agreements and moving away from the rules-based global trade order. These measures could have profound impacts world wide. A big for Australia is Trump’s pledge to impose tariffs of 10–20% on all imports to the US. The US accounts for only 5% of Australian exports, it still ranks as Australia’s fifth-largest export market. The US imports relatively small amounts of our commodities, but it’s a different story for much of our advanced manufacturing sector.  Australia exports more than 40% of high-tech engines, 50% of aircraft and space parts and almost 60% of machine tools to the US. While small in absolute volume these are high value items with total export value possibly higher than that of agricultural and mineral exports.

 

Australia will also need to watch the impact of Trump’s policies on China, still our largest two-way trading partner. Large tariffs on China could slow its growth, in turn slowing its imports of Australian exports such as iron ore. And Australia will not be alone in having to deal with the consequences of the tariffs. If Trump raises tariffs on all imports to the US, other countries will almost certainly follow suit. They may also impose new tariffs on trade with countries other than the US.

 

Imposing tariffs on imports was great election rhetoric for the masses, but the consequences won't necessarily make MAGA.

[Marty_d]

Nothing will MAGA, that's what these fools don't realise.
Even the idea of it being great in the first place is kind of a fallacy.

What period in history are they trying to get back to?  And who was it great for?  

[facthunter]

Orange boy will also expect Australia to  impose import tariffs on Chinese EV's.. Nev

[facthunter]

 It IS and always will be "ALL about TRUMP". The supreme God-King of the Shocking State of America..   Nev

[old man emu]

So many threads dealing with the consequences of Trump's agenda that it's hard to pick which one to post in. However, this video seems to fit the message of this thread. It provides a reason for what Trump and his pals are aiming for - increasing their wealth at the expense of those who don't have wealth. The presenter is an economist at an English university, so it should be unbiased.

 

 

[spacesailor]

Same in Australia. 

The government wants higher prices ,

to give them a greater return on that 10% gst tax .

 the more they rake in , the higher their pay-rate .

spacesailor

 

[facthunter]

BS space.  Nev

[rgmwa]

I think he may be crediting Trump with thinking like an economist, rather than the impulsive, egotistical disrupter that he is. Still he may be right about the outcome.

[facthunter]

Yeah just accidently a moron is going to do what  we need?  Considering probabilities and reality  that's pretty unlikely./ He's surrounded by egoistic types like himself who will have difficulty agreeing with what Trump wants and HE WANTS what HE wants.and has a self declared IQ of 150 and DOG has put him there. Good  LUCK with ALL that.  Nev.

[old man emu]

Trump isn't any sort of economist, or even a decent two-bob businessman. I fully expect that he has a team of backroom boys handling his business dealings. Then when he gets their advice he makes impulsive decisions aimed at stroking his ego. He doesn't care if his decisions upset the apple cart.

 

A word of warning: We should also be looking at the economies of China and Russia. Russia's seems to be in a bit of a mess at the moment, but the Chinese economy, overall, is at least stable, if not growing. As Sachs says in the video, the claims that the Chinese economy is collapsing is propaganda emanating from the US government. Trump imposed tariffs on China in his first term, and Biden maintained them.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1985874/russia-economy-vladimir-putin 

 

 

 

[old man emu]

I find it ironic that we say that So-and-So owns large numbers of shares traded on the stock market, making the person "wealthy". But would that wealth buy a Big Mac if the stock market collapsed? Those shares are only of real value if they are sold. On the stock market, it is the buyer who sets the price. If there are no buyers, then the shares have no monetary value. The money that So-and-So bought them for is gone. So-and-So is financially ruined.

 

Shares are the equivalent of ownership in a corporation. Because they represent ownership, not debt, there is no legal obligation for the company to reimburse the shareholders if something happens to the business. If the company goes bust, a shareholder might be able to recoup some money from the sale of the company's physical assets, which would never equal the money spent in buying the shares.

 

To my mind, the stock market is just an SP bookie in a suit and tie. It is gambling, and,despite what people might say about the excitement of a bet, the motivator for gambling is greed.

[spacesailor]

Not all ! .

I hope ! .  NRMA gave shares free to it's member's , but also took some back,

( from the NEEDY ) to give to that wealthy  CEO .

Those shares weren't a gamble,  and the dividend helped greatly .

spacesailor

 

 

 

[nomadpete]

1 hour ago, old man emu said:

Trump isn't any sort of economist, or even a decent two-bob businessman. I fully expect that he has a team of backroom boys handling his business dealings. Then when he gets their advice he makes impulsive decisions aimed at stroking his ego. He doesn't care if his decisions upset the apple cart.

 

A word of warning: We should also be looking at the economies of China and Russia. Russia's seems to be in a bit of a mess at the moment, but the Chinese economy, overall, is at least stable, if not growing. As Sachs says in the video, the claims.....

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1985874/russia-economy-vladimir-putin 

 

 

 

And is that video a presentation made by ccp media?

[nomadpete]

This Sachs bloke got awards for his work to end world poverty back in 2015.... did anything change?

 

From Wiki:

 

"Sachs is co-founder and chief strategist of Millennium Promise Alliance, a nonprofit organization dedicated to ending extreme poverty and hunger.......

 

He has been criticized^{[by whom?]} for his views on economics, on the origin of COVID-19, as well as on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.^["

 

Not sure I trust his vision.

 

He was part of the New Establishment.....

 

 

[rgmwa]

2 hours ago, old man emu said:

To my mind, the stock market is just an SP bookie in a suit and tie. It is gambling, and,despite what people might say about the excitement of a bet, the motivator for gambling is greed.

A lot of people are relying on those SP bookies to gamble successfully with their superannuation savings.

[old man emu]

8 minutes ago, rgmwa said:

A lot of people are relying on those SP bookies to gamble successfully with their superannuation savings.

Def'n:

Gamble: take risky action in the hope of a desired result.

 

We all know that at the end of the meeting it's the bookies who come away with the profit. But sometimes a punter comes along with a grass-stained ear an puts a motza on a bolter, which wins and the bookie loses.

[Marty_d]

Like any investment, if you spread your risk, don't overextend and are in for the long haul, then shares are not a gamble in the common meaning of the word.

If super funds lost their shirt on shares then there's bigger economic problems for everyone.