Victorian by-elections

[octave]

1 hour ago, spacesailor said:

why Can't  I make my ' preferences go to any- other minority party ! , ,other than the two I distrust  .

 I am not trying to be mean but trust me, you don't understand how preferential voting works

[spacesailor]

I do. 

You have to vote below the line ! .

Then put Labor & the coalition . 

             Last ! .

spacesailor

 

 

But that is a little complicated. 

[old man emu]

16 hours ago, Grumpy Old Nasho said:

No, I know they don't, I said: "in naming and giving preference to the major parties, the "ALP" and the "Coalition", in what is supposed to be an independent, unbiased, and impartial government department website"

 

Let's call it: "favoritism" then.

We have reached a stage in our politics where most votes go either to the conservatives or another mob which has different ideas from the conservatives. A present, the major Conservative parties are the Libs and the Nationals, and the the major party that's different is Labor. There are other groups with significant following, such as the Greens. 

 

Think back to the glory days of V8 car racing. At one stage the two best competitors were Ford and Holden, with Chrysler being a lesser third. So, if a report on the race was made at the halfway point, the report would tell us that, say a Ford was running first, fourth and fifth and a Holden was running second, third and seventh with a Chrysler at fifth. At that stage, you might say that between Ford and Holden, on a two maker basis, Ford was most likely to win, but that could change. So the bookies would lay odds on that two-maker preferred status.

 

The AEC does not have the data with which to make the statement until AFTER the polls have closed, so whatever it says cannot influence the ultimate result. To quote the original JC, 'The die is cast'. Basically, the AEC is providing a snapshot of the result based on results to hand at the time. Because the majority of voters support either the Conservatives or Labor, the AEC during early counting does not mention the minor parties and Independents. If you want to see how the vote went for those minor parties and Independents, you'll have to buy the Sunday paper and look up the results.

 

We must be thankful that we have the AEC, because it has shown itself to be able to run an election and count the resulting votes with absolute integrity, something that most other countries cannot claim. 

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

The AEC's FAQ is not a election, they are frequently asked questions ... and that's where the ALP and the Coalition are inserted and named, and they don't give a reason why they did that. That's what I aim to find out.

[octave]

2 hours ago, Grumpy Old Nasho said:

The mere mention of the major parties by name in their FAQs influences readers and impresses on their minds that those named parties are perhaps more important than all the other parties.

 and yet votes for major parties are declining and for minor parties increasing.

 

The steady decline of voters choosing the major parties is reshaping Australian politics

 

Over the past 40 years the share of votes going to independents and minor parties has risen in both state and federal elections.

 

Seismic shift’ from major parties defines 2022 election
 

Almost one in three voters cast their ballot for minor parties or independent candidates in the 2022 federal election, the highest number in almost 100 years, Australia's largest and longest-running study on elections has found.

 

If the AEC is favouring the ALP and Coalition it does not seem to be paying off for them.

 

 

 

 

[facthunter]

Look up Climate 200.  Liberal- Nats  Is an Unholy Alliance  Greens are treading water and  Pauline is static. Labor should change It's name to reflect the decline of Unions. Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

Looks like Labor scraped home in the by-election in Werrribee with a very slim majority.

 

There are a couple of things that I draw from this. First, this is a prelude of what looks like a change in government in Vic. Werribee is a pretty safe seat, although, the west of Melbourne, which has been traditionally lower on the socio-economic demographic, is becoming more middle-class because of the cost of housing. My niece (just bought a unit in Adelaide) was telling me she was thinking of returning to Melbourne, but could only afford out west even as a physiotherapist, and many of her friends, without the bank of mum and dad, who are professionals, are in a similar boat. So, the demographic may not be as rusted on Labor as it used to be.

 

But also, this looks like a re-run of the John Cain and then Joan Kirner period - where John Cain resigned or was turfed out (can't quite recall) and left a bit of a hospital pass to Joan Kirner, who really should have been swift in implementing some changes but did very little. Jacinta Allen prioobably has it a bit tougher to do something different as there is a small thing called big debt to manage (it is still manageable by the way, but obviosuly leaves her with less room to manouvre).  But, the internal machinations of the ALP will make it hard for her to change course too much. I guess though, from reports, Labor has conceded they have to change if they have a chance at the next federal and state election.

 

What it has said is no party can rely simply on rusted on support anymore. People are getting p!55ed off.. The Libs at least are clear where they sit, but Labor looks like it is taking its support for granted.. at least that is what peopel are feeling. The independents may be the big winners here. I don't see the Greens getting any great support from this election, either.. They held theit primary vote in Prahran, which means they held their existing support base, but the independent candidate, who was previously Labor, directed preferences towards the Libs. I would have thought most Labor voters would find it harder to stomach the Libs than the Greens, so I would guess, as Prahran is more affluent, it ditched the Greens.

 

Interesting times ahead.

[facthunter]

The Victorian Liberal party is split right down the middle. It's possible Pallas had a good personal rating that  the new candidate didn't match... Respectfully, you could do with a better local knowledge. when you deal with the complexity of Victorian Politics. Greens have also been ruffling a few feathers.  Nev

[spacesailor]

Most of the people I know, are ditching labour,  but still against the coalition. 

Except my daughter who is a devout " One Nation " party supporter. 

spacssailor

[facthunter]

It's LABOR in AUSTRALIA.   Nev

[spacesailor]

I did, put Labor

spacesailor

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

2 hours ago, spacesailor said:

Most of the people I know, are ditching labour,  but still against the coalition. 

Except my daughter who is a devout " One Nation " party supporter. 

spacssailor

That post is music to my ears, or a very pleasant sight to my eyes, as the case may be.

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

11 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Interesting times ahead.

Vice President Vance said in his speech to the European Security Council, and he completely shocked all and sundry, "If your political parties don't get back to accepting what your constituents are saying, Europe is doomed", and, "Why do you have security, if you don't know what you are securing"

 

Dead right too.

 

Same applies to Australia.

Edited February 16 by Grumpy Old Nasho

[facthunter]

Vance wouldn't know $#!t.   Nev

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

It's applicable, sensible, and common sense $#!t though.

[facthunter]

It's in the eye of the beholder, M8. Common sense is like the metal, unobtanium.   Nev

[Marty_d]

Vance is a rabble-rousing dickhead.

 

He's been courting the AfD in Germany which is widely regarded as a dangerous far right party.

 

Obviously a man of consistent principles, he used to say Trump was America's Hitler, but now he's a full on supporter.

[Jerry_Atrick]

3 hours ago, Grumpy Old Nasho said:

It's applicable, sensible, and common sense $#!t though.

Applicable to what? Sensible to whom? And in what way is it common sense?

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

The truth hurts, even when an election win is spread right across the board, and the winners know what the future holds.

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

6 hours ago, Grumpy Old Nasho said:

It's applicable, sensible, and common sense $#!t though.

This is one of the things Vance was conveying in his speech. This happened a day ago, and it follows other Islamist attacks in the last few weeks in Germany.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

3 hours ago, Grumpy Old Nasho said:

The truth hurts, even when an election win is spread right across the board, and the winners know what the future holds.

Still can't answer simple questions of your assertions, eh? Have to deflect to something else?

 

What Vance was advocating was hate speech.. the same stuff that led to the riots in the UK on an unfounded lie that attributed a horrible knife attack to asylum seekers, when it was a local person. The lie was perpetrated by Nigel Farage, and accused the police of covering up to protect asylum seekers, when he knew it was an adolsecent and the police cannot release the identity of the accused of under 18s without a court order. To restore peace, the court allowed the identity of the child to be released. Interesting how the community where the choild was killed totally condemned the action and accused thugs from outside of their areas coming an and laying waste to their community - and it is a mostly white community at that. Nigel Farage, as an MP, claimed publicly he had it on good authority that the accused was an asylum seeker. On whose authority did he have? It was Andrew Tate, a right wing mysoginist in jail in Romania on remand for people trafficing charges for prostitution.

 

Funny how there is little consequence for spewing that BS today, and Vance want's more of it. I am all for free speech, but also for the free speaker to be accountable with real consequences when they are intentionally whipping up hatred. And Vance doesn't think that should be the case.

 

BTW, no one is saying people can't say things that aren't true - just keep vilification out of it. I don't think there is a problem with that.

 

But, in response to you "truth hurts".. No, the truth is the truth. And it doesn't hurt per se. I am despondent that despite centuries of progress, and being the wealthiest humanity has ever been, our old foibles seem to remain. Just because Trump won the election, doesn't mean people were right for electing him, anymore than at a time, most people thought the earth was flat, the universe revolved around the earth, and I could go on. People get sucked in all the time. But I am despondent that despite all the information that is at our fingertips, people are still can be polarised, they are too lazy to look at the facts and are prepared to listen to lies that comfort them. It certainly makes thisd person angry: 

 

It appears the farmers are starting to have second thoughts on their MAGA saviours: https://www.newsweek.com/trump-usda-funding-freeze-farmers-tiktok-project-2025-2029137.

 

Corporate Americal is having buyers' remorse:

 

And so it goes on.

 

I would say the truth about Trump, which was easily discovered, is starting to hurt.

 

I am, however, despondent.. at so many levels.. not about Trump.. he is a product of his time and population, but how a country that supposedly holds the constitution so dear and freedom.democracy as sacrsanct could descend into 1930's Germany... so easily, when the altnerative was working so much better for the people.

 

The right seem to be better marketers, and let's face it, the fourth arm of government, which is not what Musk was talking about, the press, is paid for by Corporate America - and therefore, the arm of government that who have the most influence are doing who's bidding?

 

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Oh.. and this fella..

His vid apparenlty has gone viral....

 

And they wonder why they are screwed?

 

Did they actually look beyiond the MAGA rallies?

 

Problem with yanks, is they believe Hollywood too much

[Grumpy Old Nasho]

We're in the wrong thread for "Trump and his Administration" talk. We shouldn't continue it in here.

 

Instead I'll reply to this post, which I meant to do when octave first posted it.

 

On 11/02/2025 at 4:20 PM, octave said:

 and yet votes for major parties are declining and for minor parties increasing.

 

The steady decline of voters choosing the major parties is reshaping Australian politics

 

Over the past 40 years the share of votes going to independents and minor parties has risen in both state and federal elections.

 

Seismic shift’ from major parties defines 2022 election
 

Almost one in three voters cast their ballot for minor parties or independent candidates in the 2022 federal election, the highest number in almost 100 years, Australia's largest and longest-running study on elections has found.

 

If the AEC is favouring the ALP and Coalition it does not seem to be paying off for them.

 

 

 

 

 

What we need to remember and understand is that the major parties have ruled Australia since 1901 and still contesting elections 123 years later, but now they are battling to gather enough primary votes to ward off new players in the game, why? It's because the new players are not scared of the ancient political bullying major parties anymore. The new thinking is pushing the old thinking out, or should I say, pushing the old psyches' out. The psyches of the major parties are filled with aggression, lies, inflated egos, revenge, manipulation, and self importance. They will stop at nothing to stay in power, but now that is being challenged.

 

We can't go on with their deep negativity, it's old hat and it's no longer suitable for Australia. If they don't change to become more friendly to the broad electorate in a conciliatory way with all constituents, their continued decline is inevitable. So they need to wake up and rid themselves of their damaging politically superior, overbearing, and negative dehumanizing attitudes that are entrenched deep in their inherented psyches, psyches from the distant past.

 

The ALP and the Coalition think with their right and left cerebral hemispheres separately, but there's no Corpus callosum between them for free exchange of information for harmonious and friendly dialogue and reasoning. They are born to "assassinate" each other, and anyone else who annoys them.

 

The major parties are playing the nice guys, but they're being found out, finally, we're realizing that the bullying that was always historically deep in their minds, is still in their minds, and won't go away, so we are now naturally rejecting them. "Naturally" is the key word here.

[facthunter]

Small political groups often destroy themselves from within with infighting. (Democrats) and the Greens occasionally Abbot started the full on opposition which verged on sabotage and subversion. They are supposed to be Her Majesty's LOYAL Opposition, at the time but in League with Merdeoch, the IPA and Creeps like Alan Jones go far beyond that,  Nev

[Litespeed]

On 16/02/2025 at 12:50 PM, spacesailor said:

Most of the people I know, are ditching labour,  but still against the coalition. 

Except my daughter who is a devout " One Nation " party supporter. 

spacssailor

My condolences Spacey,

 

I hope your daughter gets the mental health care she needs and recovers soon.