Brexit Take 2

[bexrbetter]

British Prime Minister Teresa May has just called a snap election for June 9th. No one's pretending, the mandate is Brexit.

 

Feel sorry for the British public, must be half a billion dollars cost to them in just 2 years, for 3 times going to the Polls.

 

Feel great about yourselves Lefty's, that money could have been spent on social services rather than your inabilities to accept the will of the people.

 

 

[Phil Perry]

June 8th actually Bex. . . .

 

A cynical ploy to frustrate Brexit.. . I COULD be wrong here, but Theresa May is a 'Remainer' as are most of her cabinet.. . . Lord only knows why, when the whole world beckons for our trade, and the EU is gradually sliding into a stinking, crooked financial abyss of indeterminate consequences. . . She only has a Parliamentary majority of 12. And if some of these 'Leavers' are prosecuted for electoral fraud / mis-use of electoral funding, at the Thanet South by - election. . . ( Overspend to prevent Nigel Farage being elected ) as the CPS have said today, this would reduce this majority to not very many. . .. A couple of lost seats in a General election and its all over.

 

I think that she is hoping that the Conservatives will lose their majority, and that this will put the brakes on the democratic will of the people who voted to leave the EU. . ." Oooh,. . .hey, Sorry folks, but we don't have the numbers to complete the Leave negotiations now . . .'' . . .It is certainly going to muddy the waters anyhow. . . .One has to wonder WHO is really pulling the strings. . . .

 

She is hoping that we will all accept 'Brexit Light' . . .ie, no brexit at all,. . . Fishing waters still plundered by the Spanish,. . . Borders still open wide, . . .EU rules and Diktats still slavishly obeyed without question, still welded into the 'Single Market' with it being ilklegal to trade direct with the rest of the world. . . .what the feck is wrong with these bloody Pollies ? THIS is what we voted for. . . .only four months ago, she Publicly stated on live TV, that there would be no general election until the full term of the current parliament, ie, 2020. . . .now we have another bloody U-Turn. . .

 

We shall watch with interest. the strange events as they unfold. . . .

 

 

[Yenn]

I heard comment today that the opposition is so weak that there could be no chance of them derailing Theresa May's government. What that tells me is that TM is calling an election because there is trouble in her party. Maybe some of her party really do want to exit the EU as the voters wanted, but she will be doing all in her power to stop the exit.

 

Whatever happens it is just a sign of the times. politicians completely disregard their own constituents and do what suits them best.

 

My money is that brexit never happens.

 

 

[Marty_d]

British Prime Minister Teresa May has just called a snap election for June 9th. No one's pretending, the mandate is Brexit.

Feel sorry for the British public, must be half a billion dollars cost to them in just 2 years, for 3 times going to the Polls.

 

Feel great about yourselves Lefty's, that money could have been spent on social services rather than your inabilities to accept the will of the people.

Huh?? A conservative PM has called an election and somehow it's the fault of the "lefty's"?

 

 

[octave]

Huh?? A conservative PM has called an election and somehow it's the fault of the "lefty's"?

and the prediction is that the labor party will lose badly so I can't imagine how it could be a lefty ploy.

 

 

[Phil Perry]

Huh?? A conservative PM has called an election and somehow it's the fault of the "lefty's"?

Nah, May has a great deal of opposition to leaving the EU in her own party . . . Most of the news media here is going with the idea that she got fed up with constant whining from her own side.

 

This COULD be true, but I don't trust her. She campaigned for the 'Remain' camp all along, and was a totally ineffective Home Secretary for five years. . 'The Invisible Woman' . . .If she really IS that clever, . . .she has managed to keep this a closely guarded secret !

 

Labour ( the left ) has no effective power at the moment, until they get rid of 'Steptoe' Corbyn and his 50 year old communist ideas. Several high profile Labour MPs campaigned for the Leave vote, so I can't honestly see how they could be blamed in any way guys.. . .

 

Because of the existence of the 'Fixed Term Parliament Act' . .May requires a 2/3rds majority of ALL 650 Mps in order to force a General election within the fxed term, and Labour have indicated that they will vote with the Government to achieve this.. . . It is possible that she is hoping for a bigger majority to push the EU negotiations, sha can't possibly LOSE the election, but if this is what she is REALLY trying for, then I will change my opinion of the Lady.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

and the prediction is that the labor party will lose badly so I can't imagine how it could be a lefty ploy.

There's a whole bunch of By-Elections this year and she only holds a 12 seat majority at the moment, potential of losing 20 seats through the year at those By-Elections, then the Torys will kick her out at the end of the year. - or saving her azz now on a fake Brexit mandate election.

 

This ploy is to grab UKIP votes from those who, although UKIP voters, have confidence to support May just for this election because she's (falsely) screaming "Brexit is Brexit!" theme to retain those seats and protect her own faction. Then she will have the mandate to barter Brexit as she pleases and she will make concessions, that is a given if she gets a screaming majority.

 

You will likely see people like Nigel Farage coming out strong now to retain UKIP voter strength and not let them step over to May's "downgraded Bexit" cause.

 

May will platform on vote for us to "protect Brexit".

 

This is a 100 million dollar azz saving excersize, Brexit referendum was held, the will of the people should be upheld with none of these games.

 

 

[octave]

Feel great about yourselves Lefty's,

 

This ploy is to grab UKIP votes from those who, although UKIP voters, have confidence to support May just for this election because she's (falsely) screaming "Brexit is Brexit!" theme to retain those seats and protect her own faction. Then she will have the mandate to barter Brexit as she pleases and she will make concessions, that is a given if she gets a screaming majority.

 

It is not clear to me what the connection is to lefty's

 

 

[bexrbetter]

It is not clear to me what the connection is to lefty's

You are correct Octave, i'm not being clear; I am referring to "Remainers" who I consider to be of Left persuasion.

 

"Remainers" are generally accepted to be Left, even Left of Right if Right, right?

 

Some more news through, there are 30 Tory Party members considering being criminally charged for overspending in the 2015 Election. Some are now suggesting that Teresa May was trying to get this Election in before the real impact of that could be felt as some of those are marginal Seat holders.

 

Doubtful, but possible.

 

I agree with some that an Election now while PM May is on a high is far more agreeable than 2020 after having to deal with the Brexit deadline of 2019 and staying good with the people. If she gets back in this June, likely, she will have much more scope to play as she sees fit with Brexit trade deals leading up to 2019 deadline.

 

 

[facthunter]

Yes Britain should "seize the moment " according to tony and become the great Empire it once was. Dream on. That was a long time ago and the world (and Britain) has changed. The EU has brought peace to the warring tribes of Europe but I suppose that's not important. People love going all over Europe without BS at each border. Also working in Italy where the climate is beaut. How could they EXIT and still have all the privileges of being IN? What a GAMBLE. No one really knows the cost. WAS a sensible analysis ever presented to the populace? I don't think so. Just fear mongering and misinformation A great basis to have such an important vote, and It's nearly EVEN with the voting to leave. Surely constitutional changes should require more than a simple majority especially when you are altering a status quo for an unknown outcome. British are probably exhausted under the onslaught of all the politicking. Who knows just what factors are going to play out here? I think I know why she did it but it's not along the lines of how you, (Phil) see it. I can't be quite that cynical to make out it's to negate or confound the Brexit process. That concept is just too obtuse. I think it's simply opportunism to strengthen the Tories power. The number crunchers are always doing that and it looks as though it will work but WHO knows. Bugger the ordinary voter. The cost and inconvenience and unpleasantness are just too bad. THEY (the voters) will just have to cop it as they always do and there may just be a reaction to this. Nev

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

I largely agree with you, Facthunter; The election is more about striking while the iron's hot. Theresa May enjoys a 20 point lead over Corbyn - this is a huge lead and one I have not seen since moving here in '96. It's a question of how can I improve my majority and guarantee my job for the next 5 years (without completely stuffing up).

 

Theresa May was a quiet remainer - not particularly vocal. However, she has consistently said that Brexit means Brexit, and any rational analysis would say that, although the referendum only asked the question of in or out and didn't stipulate the suggested recommendations, those that voted out wanted out - or Hard Brexit as against simply exiting power of the EU but remaining obligated in exactly the same way as it is (Soft Brexit). Doing a U Turn on a promise not to hold an election is totally different to doing a U turn on an expressed (albeit non-binding) will of the people, especially since it appears that many of those who voted against leaving are now not so resistant to the idea (according to polls).

 

I also think people are mixing up left and right of politics with nationalism. There are many lefties who are passionate about leaving the EU. There are many righties who are passionate about staying in it. But it is true, lefties are associated with staying in and righties are associated with leaving. Be that as it may, I wouldn't worry too much about the conservatives wanting to stall the exit as, remember, David Cameron staved off a leadership challenge in the run up to the last election by promising in this parliament to run the referendum. And given Theresa's may quoted reason for calling the general election, it would be a brave PM and political party who won by a landslide on the basis of getting sufficient control of the house to push through Brexit that, upon getting control does a U Turn.

 

You could argue calling an election is to weaken Brexit, but then, that would be about weakening the conservatives; Theresa May has already ruled out doing TV debates with opposition (she will entertain journos questioning her, but these days, journos are more often than not defacto soap-boxes for pollies). But given the size of her current lead and the unelectability of any of the opposition parties, to weaken Brexit would mean weakening her party and herself even if returned to power, but with a materially smaller majority than her current lead in the polls would indicate. I just don't think she is up for that.

 

If w look at the Hawk/Keating years, there was an election virtually every other year - they wanted to stay in as long as they could possibly while they had it over the libs/NP.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

That was a long time ago .. and Britain has changed.

Due in no small part to being a part of the EU.

 

The EU has brought peace to the warring tribes of Europe but I suppose that's not important.

Nonsense. The EU started as a friendly agreeable group of reasonably equivalent economic countries to make border cross trade, customs and duties easier, worked well because of the similar economic situations of those countries and there was balance - who later got greedy and wanted East Bloc countries included to take advantage of cheap labour and lower standards of workers rights etc. This saw manufacturing and social economies severely affected as was expected by any logical thinking person. Then there were the fishing countries who were invited and soon felt the impact of quota'ed EU fishing grounds, Greenland left the EU over it and Norway refused to join realising it. The fisheries industry of Britain has been decimated because of it.

 

People love going all over Europe without BS at each border.

Which was fine for those initial countries early in the EEC days that had a reasonable level of social, economic, culture, respect and religious balance. Status Quo was maintained.

 

Not what's been happening since Easter Bloc countries joined, and now of course mass immigration has come to the fore.

 

Is it your position that anyone should be allowed into Australia willy nilly as they please?

 

How could they EXIT and still have all the privileges of being IN? What a GAMBLE. No one really knows the cost. WAS a sensible analysis ever presented to the populace? I don't think so.

You think wrong.

 

Besides much information at your findertips through Google and Youtube, Nigel Farage who tends to be considered as "Mr Brexit" is an expert in International commodities and monetary trade, and has been the South East England Member of the European Parliament for 18 years. Everything about Britain and the EU passes directly through his hands, and he is aware right at this moment of policies Teresa May is negotiating with the EU.

 

Any question you might have, try Googling Farage and the question. Of course that would also require you wanting to know both sides, and "thinking so". No apologies for the cynicism, you have obviously taken a position and not interested in researching and balancing (available) facts.

 

Surely constitutional changes should require more than a simple majority especially when you are altering a status quo for an unknown outcome. Who knows just what factors are going to play out here?

I'm certain a few people have this image of Luton Suburb tattoo'ed grunts will now be running Britain, barely anything will change other than the way trade is approached. Most people day to day living in the UK won't notice any change in their daily lives.

 

The people who run the country will more or less stay intact, and I'm sure they will tackle the challenges of having greater markets penetration, unrestricted fishing grounds, greater manufacturing opportunities, less social services pressures etc. with vigour. those currently receiving favours from the EU might not be so happy though.

 

Your preamble, as with many others similar, being "pre", is moot anyway, the Referendum and been run and won. Only "post" amble is now of any value, not the whining loser type, but the suggestive helpful type.

 

Bugger the ordinary voter.

Oh the irony, it was the "ordinary voter" with no vested interest other than their belief in their own country who took this win.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

Theresa May was a quiet remainer - not particularly vocal. However, she has consistently said that Brexit means Brexit, and any rational analysis would say that,

Well Jerry, I was listening to Nigel Farage the other day, and as I said above to Nev, Farage is a Member of the European Parliament, and he has in his hand Brexit proposals from Teresa May for certain trade items in exchange for continued British EU fishing grounds.

 

So sorry Mate but what your are saying is flat out rebuked by factual evidence even in these early days.

 

Due to Farage, there are/will be no secrets about Brexit trade offs, everything passes through his very hands, and importantly they will be known ahead of time. Oh that must hurt (May, not you!).

 

 

[facthunter]

You really are master of the put down, Bex. If you don't agree with someone THEY are wrong and you put them in the idiot, whingers, easily mislead and any other demeaning category that comes to your mind. Nev

 

 

[Bruce]

I hope you are wrong Phil, you are a bit of a worrier. I reckon the snap election will do harm to Labor and that is the reason for it.

 

Well I'm off to the Lancair 3 day seminar today. Gunna mix it with the fast guys huh.

 

 

[facthunter]

You are going to a dark place. Nev

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

A momentous day; hopefully a turning point in history:

 

First coal-free day in Britain since Industrial Revolution - BBC News

 

 

[nomadpete]

Great to see that UK is minimising it's coal use by using "imported energy"

 

Wow, does anyone wonder what generates imported energy?

 

I see visions of Ebay purchases (of imported energy) arriving in the mail.... from China

 

 

[bexrbetter]

A momentous day; hopefully a turning point in history:First coal-free day in Britain since Industrial Revolution - BBC News

You do understand what is eventually going to happen to Australia?

 

You do know that the bulk of coal is used for steel making? That means every time a country cuts it's coal useage, the price of everything goes up.

 

Department of Industry, Innovation and Science Resources

 

 

 

AUSTRALIA’S MAJOR EXPORT COMMODITIES

 

 

 

COAL

 

Coal has been providing reliable energy to Australians since the late 1700s when

 

it was originally used as a fuel for heating and cooking. Today the coal industry

 

provides the Australian community with jobs, regional economic activity, and makes

 

large tax and royalty contributions. Coal also provides the region with an affordable

 

energy resource and is a key component in the manufacture of steel.

 

 

 

$34 billion export value 2015~2016

 

 

44,000 direct jobs

 

 

$5.7 billion Australian wages.

 

 

 

LARGEST GLOBAL COAL EXPORTER BY VOLUME (2015)

 

 

 

1st largest global metallurgical coal exporter (2015)

 

 

 

2nd largest global thermal coal exporter (2015)

 

 

 

30% of world coal trade (2015)

 

 

 

4th largest share of world’s resources, accounting for 9%

 

 

[bexrbetter]

You really are master of the put down, Bex. If you don't agree with someone THEY are wrong and you put them in the idiot, whingers, easily mislead and any other demeaning category that comes to your mind. Nev

I disagree with your proffering, and I have no specific problems with you otherwise that I am aware of.

 

You posted opinions on the matter which were corrected with verifiable information and sources, that's got nothing to do with my character.

 

This has nothing to do with people agreeing with me or not, I go by facts, if I am trounced by facts in a debate them I will promptly yield and give credit where due.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

You do understand what is eventually going to happen to Australia?...

We'll become like Argentina? If we'd nationalised our minerals (as Whitlam's Rex Connor tried to) we might be as rich as Norway, which didn't give away control to foreign corporations.

 

You do know that the bulk of coal is used for steel making?...

Wrong. The bulk of our exported coal (182 million tons) is burned for power generation.

 

154 million tonnes is used in steel making.

 

That means every time a country cuts it's coal useage, the price of everything goes up...

Looks like a fascinating leap of logic.

 

 

[bexrbetter]

We'll become like Argentina? If we'd nationalised our minerals (as Whitlam's Rex Connor tried to) we might be as rich as Norway, which didn't give away control to foreign corporations.

Did you miss the point that people are slowly stopping to buy our coal? China cut their usage by 6% last year and they are deadly serious about the downward purchase of coal. The bulk of our income comes from the ground, and it's a diminishing market, what can I say.

 

I would love our Government to take back control tomorrow, but the fact is, again, it's a diminishing market. Love that Marty agrees with you on that, and that it is a One Nation/Trump/Brexit foundation platform

 

Wrong. The bulk of our exported coal (182 million tons) is burned for power generation.

 

154 million tonnes is used in steel making.

The figures I look at weren't those, you may be right, it does not change the situation.

 

Every time the sales of coal goes down, the price must go up. It's called supply and demand. Then the price of electricity goes up. That means the price of steel goes up (because you need both horrendous amounts of electricity and coal to make steel).

 

Steel affects almost everything on the planet, if it's not made of steel, then it's built by, or moved by steel.

 

The alternatives are plastics and aluminium or textiles which all then become more economically viable - guess what? Australia's number 1 seller is iron ore, sell less coal, prices go up, steel alternatives come into play, people then buy less iron ore from us .....

 

The downward spiral has already started by the way, we are selling less coal and iron ore relative to world growth by a long margin.

 

Let me demonstrate with Australian Government facts of how serious the situation is.

 

Note here in the last 10 years that everything Australia exports has gone seriously backwards, except for minerals, almost 30% of Australia's total exports are now Iron ore and coal.

 

 

Now here is a list that shows everyone is buying less from us, except for China who are now recessing, and also have also recently started purchasing Sth American coal .......

 

 

If there was ever a scary chart then this is certainly up there.

 

If China's economy slows down, oh wait it is, and they start buying less coal and iron ore, oh wait, they are, then we are heading for a rather large problem.

 

Looks like a fascinating leap of logic.

Maybe now you see some of the logic with some facts.

 

 

[Marty_d]

If I went looking I could probably find similar charts to do with whaling, ice harvesting, telegraphs, steam engines, wool, ivory, typewriters or any number of other things that had a big export value but were either overtaken by new technology or were stopped because of harm to the ecology. (Or, if you prefer, because of public outcry).

 

Any country that depends on one export to one main customer is asking for trouble, especially when that country's strategic alliances don't match it's trade ones. Sound familiar?

 

You don't have to like it but the figures show that coal is on the way out. Yes there'll always be a need for steel, but as OK says it's used more for power generation. Cutting that would be a damn fine start.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

So what's your solution, Bex? Dig up even more coal?

 

I totally agree that Australia is rapidly approaching a balance of trade crisis. We have become dangerously dependent on digging stuff out of the ground.

 

We blame our leaders, but the average Australian wants it all, and votes out any government that threatens our short-term comfort. We elect politicians without even medium-term vision. They desperately support dirty old technology while ignoring smart, home-grown sunrise industries. Science is cut back and foreigners are subsidised to plunder our wealth. To maintain our standard of living we are saddling our children with enormous debt.

 

Keating's Banana Republic is not far away.

 

 

[Bruce]

We should be replacing coal with uranium, it is by far the cleanest base-load power source.

 

We could become the Nigeria of uranium supply.

 

No, not the Saudis or the Norwegians... they nationalized their oil but in Nigeria the foreign corporations just have to pay royalties for the generals etc. Still, there are jobs for ordinary Nigerians so they are better off than without the oil.

 

But Bex is right if you confine the argument to steel-making coal. We need to separate this use from power-generation use.