Electric Cars - the discussion continues.

[old man emu]

27 minutes ago, nomadpete said:

However  it is also true that many of those stolen vehicle fires are not reported due to the vehicles burning out in bushland.

If there is a fire in bushland, that bushland is likely to be close to areas of population. You don't see car thieves tramping through the bush. The thieves are picked up by mates in another vehicle. Also fires in the bush are attended by the RFS who report the cause of the fire. The police attend and identify the vehicles in order to close off the stolen vehicle report.

 

In the past, fires initiating in passenger vehicles while being driven, or simply parked and not involved in a collision, were extremely rare. Now they are becoming frequent. It is not so much the problem of the vehicle going up in smoke. It is the fact that these battery fires cannot be extinguished with the facilities currently available to fire fighters.

 

As for Cadigan's presentation style, I agree that it is annoying. However, since it is so annoying, he has to make sure that what he says on topic has to be correct, or he will be pilloried. Turn on your style filter and listen to what he says. I found that his analysis of the Luton fire photograph was quite logical. Most people look at a photograph and miss the fine details that are often hidden by the biggest object in the picture. There are a lot of that sort of picture on this site in the Funny picture thread. His comment about the colour of the smoke is realistic, as is his comment about the apparent fire hot spot under the car. Also, had you seen that the lights were on before he pointed out that fact? His comment that if the lights were on  the 12V system was still intact is logical.

[facthunter]

If An  ice car pulls off the road where there's a bit of dry grass the CAT Converter being red hot will ignite the grass. EV's don't have hot exhaust or fuel and oil to leak. Later  converters are closer to the engine. Hot engine parts make oil and fuel leaks dangerous. Pressurised fuel is very risky. or hot transmission oil and power steering hoses.  Nev

[octave]

I actually had a vehicle catch fire whilst I was driving it. It was about 20 or so years ago. I was driving my Mitsubishi L300 van, which has the seat over the engine. I asked the fire fighter if this was an unusual occurrence. He said they are called to several each week. Anyway the van was a right off.

[nomadpete]

2 hours ago, old man emu said:

If there is a fire in bushland, that bushland is likely to be close to areas of population. You don't see car thieves tramping through the bush

I understand your logic, but my personal experience differs to a degree. When I used to ride fire trails and power line easments south of Sydney (for fun) I often came across burnt out cars. I assumed them to be joyriders trying to see how far they coud go on these rough tracks. Fire brigades would never reach them even if they were called.

I have seen the car in front of me catch fire whilst in bumper to bumper traffic.

In remote areas. When a car breaks down or even gets a flat tyre, the indigenous occupants leave it beside the road and a couple of days later it is a burnt out wreck - fire brigades don't bother to turn out for them.

These are small personal anecdotes.

 

And as I noted before, petrol/diesel car fires are similar to EV fires in as much as they all burn until the fuel source is depleted. We never managed to extinguish a car fire until the fuel finished burning. The fumes are extremely toxic, too. The only difference I see with EV's is that the initial fire is far more intense than petrol/diesel.

[old man emu]

2 hours ago, nomadpete said:

petrol/diesel car fires are similar to EV fires in as much as they all burn until the fuel source is depleted.

An ICE vehicle will burn until the combustible material is consumed. Forgetting about the plastics and cloth in vehicles (which we can assume are the same for an ICE and an EV), once the liquid fuel load of an ICE has been consumed, then that's the end of it. However, the battery of a hybrid or full EV can still have sufficient heat to convert its combustible ingredients into more fuel, so that smothering to exclude oxygen doesn't work.  Also the heat of these fires is beyond the heat absorption capabilities of water, so cooling is ineffective.

  

[spacesailor]

Not All vehicle manufacturers , recalled their fire prone vehicles .

One prominent one ,  denied it ever happened. 

But ! , still changed their transmission oil . That was overheating.  When ' off-road ' .

( usually on the hot beach ) .

spacesailor

[facthunter]

Life can be a "beach".   I've had a tractor battery go up while the tractor was working.  IF they short out there's a bit of energy to get rid of and you have the thing being charged at the same time.  Nev

[willedoo]

16 hours ago, onetrack said:

I'm sorry Jerry, I can't be bothered watching that mouthy idiot prattle on endlessly, loving the sound of his own voice. He's full of **it.

I see what you mean. I got about half way through but the presenter was started to grate so I aborted the viewing. One thing he said was that diesel doesn't give off white smoke when it burns. Fair enough, but if you see white smoke coming from anything soaked with diesel, it means it's just about to explode. I saw that first hand one night when my brother blew his eyebrows off trying to re-light an already warm combustion stove with copious lashings of diesel on the kindling he'd put on top of glowing coals. It wouldn't have blown if the stove was dead cold, but the pre-heated fire box was an ideal combustion chamber.

[facthunter]

Some diesels used to smoke out a paddock when  first started because white smoke is diesel vapour ready as you say to ignite.   Nev

[willedoo]

10 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Life can be a "beach".   I've had a tractor battery go up while the tractor was working.  IF they short out there's a bit of energy to get rid of and you have the thing being charged at the same time.  Nev

I blew up a battery on a small Case dozer once. No fire, but the bang was as loud as a shotgun blast. It split the battery casing vertically on the corners as well as splitting the top. That was caused by my idiocy, connecting jumper leads in a non safe sequence. The positive post was a bit loose and venting gas. It wouldn't have happened if I'd done it properly and made the last connection on a vehicle earth on the starting vehicle instead of on the crook battery.

[facthunter]

This was just a melt down with an incredible sulphuric  smell . Volatilised acid. Can permanently scar the lungs and you need asbestos gloves to handle the Battery. Best  put under water to cool quickly.  Nev

[Old Koreelah]

Lithium batteries are still in their infancy, so hopefully will continue to improve. 
Despite the benefit of more than a century of development, traditional lead acid batteries are still not perfectly safe. I’ve seen them start ferocious fires in crashed vehicles resulting in death and amputations. Almost as bad is the plurry acid they spray around when smashed; you might only find out about that a few days later when your boots fall apart or holes appear in your clothing.

[onetrack]

A German battery technology startup company, High Performance Battery (HPB), led by one Prof. Dr. Günther Hambitzer, is claiming a massive leap forward in technology with their solid state Lithium ion battery. If even half HPB's claims stack up, their new technology looks like a major increase in lifespan, safety levels, and energy density for Lithium batteries.

There's a link to the HPB website at the bottom of the article.

 

https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/storage/german-startup-develops-the-world-s-first-20231011

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by onetrack

[red750]

I received this in an email this evening, copied rom the SMH.

 

Charge is on to join growing global electric vehicle battery revolution

 

The world is splitting into two great battery zones with two competing chemistries. In one camp is the US-Korean industrial nexus; in the other is China, with Europe as a junior province. The technology race will slash battery pack prices by the mid-2020s, and slash them again by the turn of the decade.

 

Global lithium supply will be cheap and abundant. New methods of direct lithium extraction (DLE) using resins or sorbents are already doing for lithium what shale fracking did for oil and gas, but with a twist: DLE not only doubles the yield, it also cuts land use 20-fold and greatly reduces water needs. The discovery of vast high-grade lithium deposits in Nevada points to ample global supply.

 

The US-Korean bloc specialises on ‘‘ternary’’ technology for lithium-ion batteries using nickel, cobalt, and manganese, which have high-energy density and decent mileage, well-adapted to the large vehicles and long distances of the US market.

 

This is sheltered behind the protectionist wall of the Inflation Reduction Act, which cuts the cost of batteries made in US gigafactories by $US45 kWh ($70 kWh) and keeps the Chinese at bay. It promises fat profit margins for those able to tap it under free trade deals. The Koreans will have almost 70 per cent of US market share by 2025, if you include joint ventures. The winners will be Samsung SDI with a potential share price gain of 74 per cent over the next year, or LG Chem (more than 63 per cent).

The China-Europe bloc specialises on cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that last longer, degrade less in the heat, and don’t need cobalt from African child labour, but are 30 per cent less energy dense.

 

China’s huge overcapacity in battery manufacturing will find its way into Europe one way or another, whatever Brussels says. German carmakers are too deeply intertwined with Chinese firms to let the ideological wing of the EU impose its vision of European manufacturing sovereignty. This LFP battery zone will be a cutthroat market with shrivelling profit margins.

This is the broad conclusion of a deep dive into the battery revolution by a team of 15 analysts at Goldman Sachs. The report is for investors. It is technical and far removed from the culture war that pollutes most discussion of EVs and clean-tech in the British political debate. I pass it on to readers to make their own judgement.

 

The greenflation scare caused by COVID and Putin is subsiding. Battery components are in surplus supply. Global battery pack prices were $US153 kWh at the end of 2022. Goldman thinks they will fall to $US99 by the end of 2025, and $US72 by 2030.

 

Electric vehicles will soon undercut combustion cars on a lifecycle or ‘‘total cost of ownership’’ basis on pure price in most places. ‘‘We estimate that cost parity without subsidies could be achieved around mid-decade,’’ they said.

 

EVs are already cheaper in China on purchase price alone – the BYD Seagull retails from $US10,200 ($16,000) – but that is chiefly because production has been heavily subsidised in all kinds of ways. National (not local) subsidies have now been cut to zero. China is moving to the next stage of price wars and ferocious cost-cutting.

 

The tipping point for an EV consumer take-off is when the ‘‘payback time’’ from lower running costs is under three years. Goldman thinks this will happen in China by 2025. EV sales will then go parabolic, leading to 80 per cent penetration by 2030.

 

This may understate the lightning speed of the change. Li Xiang, head of Chinese carmaker Li Auto, is betting that the 80 per cent threshold will be reached as soon as 2025. But let us not quibble.

 

A clutch of new technologies are hitting the global market and will lead to a new set of winners and losers by 2026. Chemists have long eyed silicon as a substitute for graphite in battery anodes. It can store over 10 times as much lithium and therefore has far higher energy density – for anoraks, 4200mAh/g v 372mAh/g. It is abundant and has a lower CO2 footprint, but has been too unstable for anodes until recently.

 

The industry has now figured out how to harness silicon using nanotechnology. One leading start-up is the British firm Nexeon, a spin-off from Imperial College, London. It is building a commercial-scale plant in Korea to supply batteries for Panasonic, blending carbon and silicon as its secret sauce.

 

The company’s Karandeep Bhogal told me that this cut costs by 20 per cent, boosts the driving range by 20 per cent to 40 per cent, and opens the way for a flood of smaller mass-market EVs.

 

The Chinese battery maker BYD, now the top global producer of EVs by volume, has stolen a march with its new ‘‘blade’’ batteries. These are less likely to catch fire, charge extremely fast, and last 1.2 million kilometres on 3000 cycles. They are already being used in some Tesla and Mercedes models.

Toyota missed the first EV wave but is betting on resurrection from its ‘‘bipolar’’ battery, the fruit of 20 years’ research. An LFP variant will come into play in 2026-27 with a range of nearly 800 kilometres and at a cost of $US95 kWh, followed a year later with a muscular version reaching 1400-kilometre range at around $US115 kWh. Big cylindrical batteries are coming of age, too. Tesla has slashed $US2000 to $US3000 from the cost of its 4680 battery pack by cutting the number of cells by 80 per cent. All these intermediate technologies are hitting the market or will be by mid-decade.

 

This is before the larger quantum leap to solid-state batteries, with double or even triple the energy density of lithium ion batteries. These will start to appear at viable cost in 2027-28 or soon after.

My conclusion: it is already irrelevant whether or not Britain and Europe have a petrol and diesel sale ban in 2035. The market will pre-empt it. If collectors want to keep buying a petrol car in the 2030s for political or nostalgia reasons, let them, so long as they are charged for the CO2 cost to society.

 

In an ideal world, Britain should buy cheap batteries directly from China under the principle of Ricardian comparative advantage. It should focus industrial policy on hi-tech, rather than joining the European subsidy race for copycat gigafactories.

 

But the world is not ideal. The local content rules of the Brexit trade deal mean that carmakers cannot sell into Europe’s EV market without tariffs unless a rising share comes from local (or EU) sources, so the UK has to join this gigafactory rat race or watch its car industry snatched away – the explicit goal of Thierry Breton, the internal market commissioner.

 

What is striking in the Goldman Sachs report is how marginal Europe has become to the creative explosion in battery technology. It risks spending exorbitant sums trying to close the EV chasm, only to find that it is still a Chinese battery province a decade hence.

 

Somebody should have paid more attention when America’s Tesla produced its first car in 2008 with a range of 245 miles, a top speed of 125 mph, and breathtaking acceleration. They should have paid even more attention when China and Korea ran away with the global battery trade.

The Telegraph, London

[Bruce Tuncks]

I have had 2 electric plane battery fires in the last few years. One disappeared behind the shearing shed and one came down in a gum tree from which it proceeded to drop burning bits of plastic down.

I have had only one fire in an ic car...   we were in an orange works dept Holden  ute, crossing the Todd just south of the gap, headed for Amoonguna , when smoke came from under the bonnet.  As the junior present, I was sent to wait under a tree while the 2 electricians put the fire out. One got the bonnet ready to lift, and he heaved it up when the extinguisher guy said to. The extinguisher handle came right out, so the 2 guys closed the bonnet and joined me under the tree to watch. Well the fire went out by itself and so we drove back to the depot.

I hereby bet a bottle of red that electric cars will be safer, fire-wise, than IC cars one day but that is not true yet.

(I have bottles of red that I won by betting that the "no" vote would win  easily.)

[spenaroo]

On 13/10/2023 at 11:30 PM, onetrack said:

You can check all the factory recalls, and also check for specific recall reasons. Below is a list of vehicles recalled due to the risk of fire causing by manufacturing faults.

Perhaps surprisingly to some luxury brand lovers, Mercedes tops the list. Hyundai and Kia have also featured large in recalls that involved potential fires.

 

https://www.vehiclerecalls.gov.au/recalls/browse-all-recalls?search=fire

ah the old recall vs service bulletin.

keep in mind different brands treat this stuff differently.

 

The Japanese brands would almost never recall motorcycles.

they would issue a service bulletin to dealers and with that give warranty processes to fix the issue.
but would take something like a frame cracking of coating on the transmission gears failing to issue a recall.

as opposed to Ducati,

who issued a recall for the smallest of issues.

[Old Koreelah]

3 hours ago, spenaroo said:

…The Japanese brands would almost never recall motorcycles.

they would issue a service bulletin to dealers and with that give warranty processes to fix the issue.

Not my experience: my first purchased-new Japanese bike (CX-500) was recalled to address a main bearing a few microns out of tolerance. At the same time, my wife’s Moto Guzzi bearings were way outside of the factory’s already sloppy tolerances and nothing was done.

 

3 hours ago, spenaroo said:

…as opposed to Ducati,

who issued a recall for the smallest of issues.

Crickey things must have improved since I bought my 860 in 1975. Bits fell off from the first minutes, but there was no support!

[spenaroo]

Yeah, bit different now.

 

there is different legal application's and costs from memory.
 

but basically my understanding is a recall is mandatory for safety items, a seized engine or a brake failure falls under this.

and has to be supported by the manufacturer and carried out regardless of time. along with informing government and customers, in theory they should be carried out before a vehicle leaves the workshop

 

 a service bulletin bypasses all that.
can all be done by dealers. parts can be supplied as needed, no need to be kept in stock.
so if a wire needed to be changed because it rubbed on the frame - it was bulletin.
change a sensor to a new style as it commonly failed - it was a bulletin

check the oil consumption as there is issues with ring gaps - its a bulletin

but with Ducati they were under Volkswagen group at the time.
where any fault was a recall, and service bulletins were used for additional checks not originally in the workshop manual.

it was a very different system - for example all bikes got updated tunes at servicing, so a MY19 panigale had the same tune as a MY21. never heard of that with the jap bikes - the ecu tune was as it left factory for life. was a lot more support through the model life.
 

Edited October 17, 2023 by spenaroo

[red750]

Came up today on Facebook - Mighty Atom circa 1921. 

 

[spenaroo]

but it is a changed world.

The Europeans are still focused on creating the most emotive experience,
with top quality components and pushing to the cutting edge - but they have been acquired by sensible overlords. factories updated. and the quality increased to levels that the founders could only dream of.

The Japanese used to have the quality and technical advantage.
but have lost both (looking at you Honda - and the current racing record)
Instead rely on being built to a price, to sell in vast quantities,
controlled more by accountants the engineers rarely ever breaking new grounds.

they are reliable but through simplicity and ease of manufacturing

 

problem is the Chinese are catching up real quick, especially as the Europeans are giving them the previous generation of engines to manufacture and using old brand names like Benelli. effectively a second tear of their operations

weirdly if I had to pick the most reliable brand today - I'd go Harley-Davidson.

Edited October 17, 2023 by spenaroo

[facthunter]

Looks home made. FAKE.  Nev

[red750]

21 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Looks home made. FAKE.  Nev

Once seen, post is no longer displayed, but not deleted. A comment said it is in a NZ museum. Can't get details. A couple of commenters identified it as a Mighty Atom.

[facthunter]

Never heard of the name and I have EXTENSIVE authoritative books of US made motorcycles,  It's my life long hobby.  There's major out of period items on that contraption. There's many repro bikes made that NEVER ever existed   It's dead easy to do and some are done for amusement but later get sold as authentic. There was a batch of Chinese Made 1909 Harley Davidsons. which sold for under $10 K AUD  which looked ok and some even ran but they weren't sold as authentic by the Makers but even some dealers were fooled at subsequent sales when they were circulating around in the Market.   Nev

[Bruce Tuncks]

Gosh, spenaroo, I always thought that a Japanese copy of a Harley was the most reliable... bugger to be wrong huh, those Harley's have really improved I guess.

[facthunter]

 A LICENSED Build Japanese Harley was built called a Rikuo in the early 30s. You could find one for sale if you looked.  I don't know if they are particularly valuable but most 30's period Harleys fetch good money  Earlier ones more so. Nev