What's good (and bad ) about Russia?

[willedoo]

It's looking like Putin and his foreign minister have finally had a win in sorting out the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The deal signed will provide for 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to be deployed to the contact line around the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and the road corridor linking it with Armenia. The deployment is for five years with an automatic extension if neither party objects. Over the next three years a new road will be built to connect the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and another road will be built through Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its enclave of Nakhichevan in the southwest.

 

The original cease fire agreement signed in Moscow was broken within a few hours and a couple of weeks later, Trump's mob were claiming bragging rights for brokering a deal to adhere to the original agreement. That lasted a couple of days before fighting resumed. It looks like this new one will finally work. The conflict always had the potential to escalate due to the defence agreement between Russia and Armenia, and Azerbaijan being supported by NATO member Turkey. That probably wouldn't have happened unless Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper, as Russia has a relatively neutral stance and doesn't recognise the disputed territory as Armenian. From their point of view, the defence agreement wouldn't apply to the disputed sector in Azerbaijani territory.

 

Meanwhile, a Russian Mil Mi-24 has been accidentally shot down in Armenia by an Azerbaijani manpad. Two crew members were killed and one injured. The Azerbaijani president has called Putin to apoligise and has offered compensation and punishment of those responsible.

Edited November 10, 2020 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Something non political for a change. Paintings by Russian symbolist Mikhail Nesterov. Not related to the first loop pilot, Pyotr Nesterov .

 

Holy Rus, Tolstoy, Philosophers, The Hermit.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2020 by willedoo

[Old Koreelah]

Decades ago I went to an exhibition of Russian Paintings (in Sydney, from memory). One canvass spoke to me so profoundly I was moved to tears. It shows a poor peasant, hat in hand with his young son close by, at the door of a grand house.

Haven’t been able to find it since, but it was entitled “Going for the Medicine”.

[octave]

4 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

Decades ago I went to an exhibition of Russian Paintings (in Sydney, from memory). One canvass spoke to me so profoundly I was moved to tears. It shows a poor peasant, hat in hand with his young son close by, at the door of a grand house.

Haven’t been able to find it since, but it was entitled “Going for the Medicine”.

In Search of Medicine, 1884 by Vladimir Makovsky (Russian 1846-1920)....Russian peasants....life was cruel and hard....

[willedoo]

The Japanese press has reported that Russian citizens born in the disputed Kuril islands are considered by U.S. immigration officials to be Japanese in relation to green cards. It sounds only theoretical as you would think they would have to successfully apply for a Japanese passport first.

[willedoo]

This is an article written by Glenn Diesen, Associate Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal. Nothing new in it; he describes the EU/US/Russia relationship and Russia's pivot away from Europe and closer to China:-

 

Russia's Asian path may benefit stability in Europe by forcing declining EU to deal with Moscow as it is and not how it wants it to be

 

After the fall of communism, the NATO powers expected Russia to fall into line and Westernize, but without the prospect of Western integration. But that plan has blown up in their faces. It has pushed Moscow towards Asia, just as the global balance of power flipped. The historical shift of economic power from the West to the East is a catalyst for a revolutionary change in EU-Russian relations.

 

While Asia continues its rise, economic stagnation and relative decline has seemingly destined Europe to growing irrelevance in the world. For the first time in its history, Russia does not need to look towards Europe for economic connectivity and new ideas. Now Russia has left the EU’s orbit, Moscow and Brussels will need to recalibrate their relationship.

 

Russia’s failed return to Europe

For 300 years, Russia pursued a Western-centric foreign policy focused on Europe. Access to European maritime corridors was central to connect with international trade, and modernization largely entailed making Russia “more European” and obtaining a seat at the table of Europe. Yet the leading maritime powers, British and American, have consistently embraced the strategy of denying Russia its place in the European family.

 

In 1942, American political scientist Nicholas Spykman outlined the imperative of the US taking over the British mission of containing Russia: “Since the time of Peter the Great, Russia has attempted to break through the encircling ring of border states and reach the ocean. Geography and sea power have persistently thwarted her.” This centuries-old tradition continued after the Cold War, with the organizing of most of Europe around the EU and NATO.

 

The rise of the EU

The rise of the EU after the Cold War was mostly the result of relative economic power. Internally, removing trade barriers increased market efficiency. Externally, the collective bargaining power of EU member states produced favorable trade agreements. Furthermore, economic power was converted to political power by conditioning access to the enormous EU market.

 

The EU also attracted the support of the US, as Washington identified Brussels as a vital partner for collective hegemony in a Western-centric world order. The subsequent gravitational pull brought the pan-European space into the EU’s orbit. This format for Europe seemingly solved the Russian question: Russia could be denied membership in the main European institutions, yet Moscow would still need to abide by their decisions. The underpinning logic dictated that Russia had nowhere else to go. Russia could either enter that orbit, too, as a political object, or become irrelevant.

 

The EU's terminal decline

Yet, in victory, the EU began its decline. Strengthening the collective power of the EU with continued expansion and the common currency sowed internal divisions. Socio-economic and political divides deepened, and the EU stumbled from crisis to crisis.

 

Members such as Greece and Italy are now heading towards economic collapse, while others, such as Poland and Hungary, are leading a revolt against the EU’s dismantlement of traditional values and the nation-state. The future of France is uncertain and the continued concentration of power in a more assertive Germany is sowing distrust.

 

At the periphery, states are quickly leaving the EU’s orbit. Turkey seeks to take advantage of the emerging multipolar world by charting an independent path, and Britain is now celebrating having finally ended its membership and left the EU’s regulatory control.

 

The US is also losing its interest in Europe, and common interests are gradually declining. The shift of power from the West to the East compels the US to redirect its focus to Asia. A weakened US, struggling to hold on to global leadership, will demand more from its European partners in terms of confronting Russia and China, yet will have less to offer in terms of security guarantees.

 

Russia leaving the EU's orbit

For Russia, the relative decline of Europe and rise of Asia presents a historical opportunity. The excessive reliance on an asymmetrical partnership with a more powerful EU was always problematic, and it became untenable, because the zero-sum structures of Europe were never reformed after the Cold War.

 

For centuries, Russian conservatives aimed to establish an organic path to modernity instead of obsessing about Europe and perpetually attempting to catch up. Eurasianism is becoming a viable geoeconomic project as Russia endeavors to reposition itself from the dual periphery of Europe and Asia to the center of a larger Eurasian construct. It is rapidly diversifying its economic connectivity and developing its strategic autonomy.

 

Incrementally, anti-Russian sanctions become less painful as Russia reduces its reliance on Western technologies, industries, transportation corridors, currencies, banks, and other financial instruments.

 

Recalibrating relations between the Eu and Eurasian Russia

The Europe constructed after the Cold War, without Russia, was designed for a different international distribution of power. In a multipolar world, it will be difficult for Europe to maintain its relevance as the continent loses its political subjectivity and degenerates into a battleground for the great powers.

 

The Europeans are confronted with a dilemma. Continued EU and NATO expansionism towards Russia’s borders will intensify the dividing lines in Europe, and it will compel the EU to retreat under US patronage and Russia to align itself closer with China.

Alternatively, mitigating those dividing lines by, for example, establishing a partnership between the EU and the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, will demand a further EU split from US containment policies.

 

By ending its Western-centric foreign policy, Russia can paradoxically improve its relations with Europe. Reducing Russia’s excessive reliance on Europe is a pre-condition for cultivating an equal partnership. When mutual sanctions eventually end, Moscow will not seek a ‘reset’ to pre-2014 relations to the extent that it entails re-entering the EU’s orbit.

 

Most importantly, an equal partnership between the EU and Eurasian Russia entails the rejection of ‘common values’ as a feature of international politics. While democracy and human rights are admirable principles to organize society, they cannot be decoupled from power politics, and are a tool for the EU to organize its orbit.

 

Simply put, Western interference in Russia’s domestic affairs is legitimized as democracy promotion that advances peace, while Russian interference in the domestic affairs in the West is denounced as an attack on democracy and an act of war. As Russia exits the EU’s orbit, the instruments of the EU’s extraterritorial governance will also come to an end.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by willedoo

[spacesailor]

When the oil runs out and eastern countries. Have No other income. Were will those that want to ride on their oily back, go to then !.

spacesailor

[willedoo]

On 03/01/2021 at 6:24 PM, spacesailor said:

When the oil runs out and eastern countries. Have No other income. Were will those that want to ride on their oily back, go to then !.

spacesailor

Good point spacey; makes you wonder how the future of oil & gas will end up. Some in the Middle east are starting to diversify away from oil and Russia has been forced to by low oil prices and Western sanctions. Russia's budgetary dependence on hydrocarbons is now down to 30% and bigger effort is being put into manufacturing, agriculture and service provision. Their dependence on oil sales is way down on what it used to be.

[Old Koreelah]

On 05/01/2021 at 1:04 PM, willedoo said:

Good point spacey; makes you wonder how the future of oil & gas will end up. Some in the Middle east are starting to diversify away from oil and Russia has been forced to by low oil prices and Western sanctions. Russia's budgetary dependence on hydrocarbons is now down to 30% and bigger effort is being put into manufacturing, agriculture and service provision. Their dependence on oil sales is way down on what it used to be.

Would be nice to see Au make a bigger effort to diversify our exports; China might be giving us the kick-along we needed.

[spacesailor]

Latest news, is China has low stocks of good coal & is having power blackouts in the big city,s.

If Aussie wants to get away from that situation, it will have to put more solar panels on roofs.

Best country for solar generation.

spacesailor

[Bruce Tuncks]

Looking 50 years ahead, I reckon we will see that China was too slow getting going. Climate change and resource depletion will be the big things.

But in the meantime, I just love their cheap tools and stuff.

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

But in the meantime, I just love their cheap tools and stuff.

And whileever the rest of us join in that love, our grandchildren will remain consumers, not producers.

[spacesailor]

I have found Most, Chinese merchandise is Very poor quality.

Or Poor metal.

Just look at the wiring in our 240 volt items, made to go pop in no time at all !.

spacesailor

[willedoo]

Alex's drone; some nice aerial footage of Vladivostok.

 

 

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

Quite right OME. I steadfastly bought cars made in Australia while I could.  And a Jabiru plane of course.  But I don't see the difference between imported from europe or the US instead of China. I sure see the difference in the price though.

 

[spacesailor]

Korea seems the better option for most manufactured goods lately. 

spacesailor

[willedoo]

Here's a bit of culture. Folk singer Pelageya and friends singing the Cossack song 'Under the Green Willow'. It's the story of a young wounded Cossack who lays dying under a willow tree. A raven comes along and perches in the branches, anticipating making a meal of the young Cossack. The Cossack tells the raven he's not dead yet, and asks him to take his bloodied handkerchief and fly home to his parents house and deliver it to his young wife. He then asks the raven to tell his wife of his fate.

 

He would be one smart crow if he could pull that one off.

 

 

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

Wliiiedoo, what do you make of this latest arrest of the poisoned journalist guy? On the face of what we have been told, Russia has behaved disgracefully and Putin like a thug.

 

[spacesailor]

Only thirty days of HELL !.

Do you think he will live long enough to be free ?.

Russia  our Allies in that last  big war.

What made them our enemy !.

spacesailor

[willedoo]

4 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

Wliiiedoo, what do you make of this latest arrest of the poisoned journalist guy? On the face of what we have been told, Russia has behaved disgracefully and Putin like a thug.

 

I'm not sure if you'd class him as a journalist, although he does have a Youtube channel. He's supposed to be an anti corruption campaigner and some Western press like to wrongly label him 'Russian Opposition Leader'. He's never held office and the party he's involved in polls around 2% in opinion polls, including polls done by western pollsters.

 

He's been under investigation for some time now for fraud and I don't know enough about his case to comment. He was accused of ripping off millions from party donations to use personally, but that's not what he was arrested for this time. He was arrested for breaching bail conditions while he was in Germany. He spent a fair bit of time there after getting out of hospital and under bail conditions, was supposed to regularly contact bail authorities which he failed to do so.

 

In other words, exactly what would happen to an Australian who did the same thing under our laws. And what the Brits did to Julian Assange. Navalny is no different; it's just that the Western press are addicted to anything they can find to run a negative story on Putin.

 

I don't have any time for Navalny; he's as dodgy as the rest of them. A headline chaser, he gets Western funding to needle the government and one of his common MO's is to organize a protest march without a permit. He knows well that it's illegal to hold a protest march without a permit, just as it is here in Australia. When he gets arrested, all the Western press screams out about Putin arresting his opposition. The whole point of his political activities is to get the press slamming Putin and his government. Nobody cares about the fact that you'd get arrested here for doing the same thing. Just the same as the press has no interest in investigating whether there's any truth in the investigations of Navalny and the charges he faces. It doesn't fit their narrative. It's the headline that counts.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by willedoo

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, spacesailor said:

What made them our enemy !.

We did it. We made them our enemy. Without an enemy, Congress would have no motivation to pass huge defence spending bills.

Edited January 19, 2021 by willedoo

[onetrack]

Regardless, Putin is utterly ruthless and revengeful, as with all Slavic people I've ever encountered.

 

An old Slav prospector told me once, they have a 'Slav proverb - "If an enemy attacks you with a knife, kill him with an axe!"

 

Putin is KGB trained, and a high-level KGB operative, and I'm sure Navalny will soon meet with another little mysterious "accident". He might just have an accidental fatal fall in his cell.

 

It's not like his poisoning was an accident, only State operators have access to lethal nuclear by-products.

 

Navalny might not be any golden-haired boy, but Putin has proved himself a proper dictator with plenty of Russian State assets ending up in his, and his mates hands. "Oligarch" is a very refined process in Russia.

 

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/vladimir-putin-and-the-big-steal/04/05/

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by onetrack

[willedoo]

22 minutes ago, onetrack said:

It's not like his poisoning was an accident, only State operators have access to lethal nuclear by-products.

onetrack, you might be getting him confused with the bloke who was poisoned in the UK some years ago with radioactive material. Navalny was allegedly poisoned with a nerve agent.

 

I wouldn't class Putin as a former high-level KGB operative, more mid level. He eventually reached the rank of Lieutenant Colonel when he was stationed in East Germany. Most of his work there was fairly boring, keeping tab of press reports and monitoring the movements of foreigners. Prior to that in Leningrad when he first started in the KGB, his job was monitoring the movements of foreigners and keeping an eye on student activities. A lot of urban myths have grown around his KGB career which in reality was fairly mundane. Whether true or not, this is a quote from a biography written on him,  "Putin and his colleagues were reduced mainly to collecting press clippings, thus contributing to the mountains of useless information produced by the KGB"

 

He only really rose to prominence when he got involved in politics. He ended up disillusioned with his career in the KGB for the reasons stated above and left to work for the Mayor of Leningrad and his career took off from there.

[willedoo]

44 minutes ago, onetrack said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/vladimir-putin-and-the-big-steal/04/05/

I wouldn't rely too much on the word of a Pommie journalist. Like a lot of articles, there's some truth in it and some not so truth. The bit about the oligarchs, he's left important context out of it, and his description of Khodorkovsky shows he doesn't know the full story about that particular person.

[willedoo]

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

Putin is KGB trained, and a high-level KGB operative

I think that often gets mixed up with the fact that Putin spent a year as head of the KGB's successor, the FSB. After Putin moved into Moscow politics working for Boris Yeltsin's administration, Yeltsin appointed him as director of the FSB. I think the appointment was more to do with Yeltsin grooming Putin politically as a contender to succeed him rather than Putin's record with the former KGB.