Don't get me wrong here, But I LIKE Donald Trump.

[old man emu]

I don't think it advances the discussion to dwell on firearms. They are part of their culture, but not the only factor. There has to be something in them that makes Trump a different person to the Americans than he is to non-Americans. He definitely exudes the image of the tough frontier town sheriff, but swagger doesn't put bread on the tables of the workers. He must strike a chord with those who believe an individual's fate is in their own hands.    

6 hours ago, old man emu said:

Perhaps also the idea they cultivated that success is built on personal risk taking almost to the point where each person is an island,  makes for a different political animal than the reliance on control from a distant ruler has created in the Australian political mind.

 Perhaps Americans are like women - impossible to understand.

[Yenn]

For what I see of the difference between Yanks and Aussies I reckon if an Aussie politician came out with the obvious lies and broken promises that Trump is reported as making, we would not vote for him. We just don;t know how Trump really is, but we can judge him by what the media report. Of course the media seem to hate him, so anyone who pposes him is lauded as being good.

The real problem is that neither party put up a sensible candidate in my opinion.

[Marty_d]

1 hour ago, Yenn said:

For what I see of the difference between Yanks and Aussies I reckon if an Aussie politician came out with the obvious lies and broken promises that Trump is reported as making, we would not vote for him. We just don;t know how Trump really is, but we can judge him by what the media report. Of course the media seem to hate him, so anyone who pposes him is lauded as being good.

The real problem is that neither party put up a sensible candidate in my opinion.

We have an Australian Trump.  His name is Clive Palmer.

[onetrack]

If Trump loses, which is becoming increasingly likely - you'll see a dummy spit, the likes of which, the world has never seen from a President.

 

If fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he has to be forcibly removed from office, all the while he's whining that he got cheated and robbed.

[kgwilson]

Another factor in the disunited states is the absolute fear of anything considered socialist especially among those with lower education living in the mid west and southern states. McCarthyism is alive and well here. Trump has seized upon this fear and fed it well. The fact that such things as free healthcare would benefit these people immensely, they associate it with communism and lack of what they see as freedom. In a way it is not surprising that the rate of Covid infection has mushroomed when it costs $150.00 to get a test and the average annual wage in the US is $US33,000.00.

 

The other is the absolute refusal to believe published statistics by the MAGA brigade & even educated Trump supporters who believe emphatically that Trumps record on the economy is unprecedented. Obamas job creation program is the longest in American history at 74 months straight averaging 199,000 a month, GDP growth exceeded 4% four times during Obamas time. Trump has never achieved 4% once. Obama inherited 10% unemployment & brought it down to 4.7%. The major reason for the economy going well during Trumps first 3 years were policies put in place by the Obama regime. Now due to Trumps failure to deal with the pandemic the US is in a way worse position than it could have been with a proper response. 

 

And yet the election is on a knife edge. Trump should have been thrown out but that hasn't happened although in all likelihood Biden will get there with Trump screaming and kicking BS all the way. If Trump ends up being prosecuted for even half the things he could be done for he will still be in court (or jail) in 4 years time. That is unless he manages to leave the country to skip all the debts he has to repay.

[onetrack]

Trump has just held a press conference where he's definitely provided evidence he lives in a parallel universe where truth doesn't matter, and "facts" can be be produced from utter, pure BS.

 

In line with the groundwork he's laid for months, about how he's going to lose the election  because of ballot fraud by Democrats, he claims "widespread" fraud in voting has cheated him out of votes.

But he cannot offer a shred of evidence and virtually all of his legal challenges to stop the counting have been thrown out of the courts. He did win a couple of lawsuits to get better access to counting rooms.

 

However, Trump is claiming he's won many of the States where counting hasn't finished - and he, and his core supporters, seem to think if they keep up this BS about "stopping the counting now", somehow the world will actually believe his BS!

Funnily enough, a large number of Republican politicians have come straight out and said the counting must continue, and the numbers tallied, provided the votes are legally verified.

 

As the U.S. voting system has plenty of procedures in place to ensure pretty good verification, Trumps claims are totally baseless. In every other U.S. election, ballot fraud was such a low number, it didn't really affect the eventual result.

 

What is probably most interesting is how the news polls got their forecast so wrong again. Nearly all forecast a landslide for Biden, when the truth is, he will only just scrape in.

This either shows that a lot of Americans are lying to pollsters about who they planned to vote for, or they changed their mind at the last minute. 

Edited November 6, 2020 by onetrack

[old man emu]

35 minutes ago, onetrack said:

This either shows that a lot of Americans are lying to pollsters about who they planned to vote for

Don't you bullshit to pollsters when they ask you political or religious questions in surveys?

[willedoo]

38 minutes ago, onetrack said:

This either shows that a lot of Americans are lying to pollsters about who they planned to vote for, or they changed their mind at the last minute. 

There could be another factor as well. As previously mentioned, Trump supporters are less likely to respond to polls according to one so called expert I was listening to on the ABC radio. I could imagine in a phone poll, when asked if they'd like to complete a survey, Trump supporters might say no thanks, while voters who are against Trump probably  would jump at the chance to bag him in a survey.

 

Not sure how it goes now, but in the past some pollsters contact via people's mobile phone numbers. That cuts out a lot of the elderly population who don't have a mobile phone or computer. You would think that it's not an issue of how the poll questions are structured because most of them are getting it wrong. I think inaccurate polls favour the underdog as supporters of the leading side might not bother to vote, thinking there's going to be a landslide, with or without their vote.

Edited November 6, 2020 by willedoo

[willedoo]

There's another point as well. Trump has upset so many people that unprecedented numbers have turned out to vote against him. And still Biden may only just scrape in. If Democrat voters had voted in their usual numbers, Trump would have won comfortably.

 

This tells me that people voting against him are probably doing it for personal reasons of dislike rather than disagreeing with Republican policies. So if Trump had done nothing different policy wise but had not been so crazy, dishonest, confrontational and disrespectful, then he probably would have flogged Biden and the Democrats. On the other hand, Trump has a small following of hard core supporters who think he's the battler's messiah, but the bulk of people voting for him are doing it because they don't want Democrat policies running the country.

 

So it could be that people are voting against Trump because they don't want him personally, but are voting for him because they don't like the Democrat agenda. I don't think the fact that Biden is old and of questionable ability has come into the anti Democrat vote. Trump supporters are in the main voting against a party, while Biden supporters are voting against a person. That person will lose because of his nasty personal manner.

 

If you take all the newly enrolled voters who did it to get rid of Trump, how many would even have a good understanding of the policies of the two parties? If the Democrats win, they're still in big trouble for the next election. If they only just get over the line because of a huge vote of Trump haters, what happens next time if the Republicans put up a good candidate. A lot of the 2020 anti-Trump Democrat support doesn't bother to get off their bum and vote is what happens.

 

The Democrats remind me of the Queensland LNP who spend year after year like the ostrich with the head in the sand. The Democrats are only up because of the hatred for Trump personally. If they think otherwise, they are delusional.

Edited November 6, 2020 by willedoo

[Yenn]

What will happen?

Biden may well win  the election and in that case Trump is out. Trump is going to scream and squawk and cause all sorts of trouble. maybe he will cause enough trouble that the Republicans will want to be rid of him, that is my expectation. The Republicans will know that they have lost, so if they have any sense at all they will dump Trump, they can get him declared unfit to be president and Pence will assume the position until Jan 20th or whenever it is. That would be the sensible thing to do, but who is sensible.

If the Republicans think they can get the election swung their way by any means, they are likely to try it. They do have a majority among the Supreme Court, but I cannot see Supreme Court judges doing anything obviously unlawful, even if it is to look after Trump, in fact they may be so embarrassed by him that he is at a disadvantage going to them.

It is in Trumps history to bully his way with court cases, he has not necessarily won them, but has come to an agreement including non disclosure of the terms. That way he has silenced his opposition, mainly by saving them vast amounts of money on court cases. Bribery if you like.

[red750]

I've heard stories that he is becoming truly mentally unhinged - the fact that he hasn't thrashed the Democrats is is driving him crazy. Anderson Cooper compared him to an oversized turtle on it's back in the hot sun thrashing about wildly.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Unf, apart from Trump willingly stepping aside,, dying, suffering an incapacitating illness, or a successful impeachment, there is little anyone can do to force him to step aside before Jan whenever.. After that, assuming Biden wins, which looking at th numbers is far from guaranteed at the moment, grab some popcorn because it is going to be a "wonderful" (to use Trump's words) spectacle.

 

Regardless of who wins, the democrats have lost this election as much as the republicans and members are already baying for blood. Rediced number of seats in the House - not sure where the senate is. People are calling for Pelosi to not have the speaker of the house. Either way, America has lost.

 

Why are the polls wrong - because they are often amalgamated at the federal level - aka he popular vote.. I think Biden has more of the popular vote than Clinton did.. so as a minor premiership, he has done OK. Looking at the state polls, they were predicting a tighter race than nationally -  and tighter than 2016 in the swing states.. so why someone forecast 89% win to Biden is beyond me.

 

As they say, there's only one poll that matters...

 

Oh - and America voted for Trump and his antics were already well known... they now are living with it; much like Aussies did with Abbott (the amount of people that I knew who voted for LNP and then complained about him was telling).

[octave]

I believe this would only be the 3rd time that a challenger has defeated a president after their first term.     It is likely that Biden will get to 306 (with PA) which is the same as Trump in 2016 although Biden will have also won the popular vote.   

Over the last few days my belief that Trumps mental state poses a danger has been reinforced.      

[kgwilson]

I think a landslide victory depends on how you define it. If Biden wins in Pennsylvania and Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, the number of Electoral college votes will be well in his favour by 304 to 229 & even North Carolina is in doubt so if Biden got that as well it would be 319 to 214. That looks like a landslide to me. With several million votes still to count Biden has received the most votes in American history and is 4 million ahead of Trump.

 

Trumps pathological lying has made him the architect of his own demise. He declared months ago that the election was going to be rigged & told everyone postal voting was fraudulent & told his supporters to vote on the day ignoring all health concerns. Biden encouraged postal voting specifically for health reasons. Guess what, early counting favoured Trump as in person on the day votes are counted first. Postal votes are favouring Biden by a margin of about 4 to 1. As is often said, a good horse always comes from behind.

[facthunter]

He's shown us very capably and publicly why HE shouldn't be the POTUS in the last few days IF you didn't know before. The senate voting structure is rigged massively in favour of the GOP Republicans. They will make it even more so it not stopped. Nev

[willedoo]

It won't be an easy four years for Biden from a legislating point of view. It's not looking like they'll win the senate from the Republicans, and losing the lower house in 2022 is always on the cards. Still, at least a lame duck presidency would be better than the chaos that would be another four years of Trump.

[Yenn]

Better a lame duck, than a Turtle on its back. Neither are appealing and we will have to put up with a couple of months of Trump before he can be thrown out. What damage can he do i that time?

I still reckon that he should be found incapable of being President and replaced by Pence, otherwise he will go completely stark raving mad.

[kgwilson]

I just listened to Biden speak and he spoke with confidence, humility, dignity and clarity although his stutter did show itself a couple of times. What a breath of fresh genuine air that has not been heard in the past 4 years from the POTUS. If his lead in Pennsylvania gets beyond the 0.5% margin requiring a recount (currently it is at 0.4%) I think he will declare victory. Trumps legal challenges have all been thrown out so far bar the one to get a bit closer to the counters in Philly. I wonder if Trump will try to pardon himself as he reckons he can between now & Bidens inauguration. That will be funny to watch.

[Jerry_Atrick]

8 hours ago, kgwilson said:

I think a landslide victory depends on how you define it. If Biden wins in Pennsylvania and Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, the number of Electoral college votes will be well in his favour by 304 to 229 & even North Carolina is in doubt so if Biden got that as well it would be 319 to 214. That looks like a landslide to me. With several million votes still to count Biden has received the most votes in American history and is 4 million ahead of Trump.

 

Trumps pathological lying has made him the architect of his own demise. He declared months ago that the election was going to be rigged & told everyone postal voting was fraudulent & told his supporters to vote on the day ignoring all health concerns. Biden encouraged postal voting specifically for health reasons. Guess what, early counting favoured Trump as in person on the day votes are counted first. Postal votes are favouring Biden by a margin of about 4 to 1. As is often said, a good horse always comes from behind.

 

This is not a landslide victory and make no mistake about it, this is seen as a problem by the democrats. You are right in that Trump is the architect of his own demise - for the lies, frustration of democracy, outdated ideology, incompetence, instability in government (how many heads of departments thorugh the revolving door?), etc. This should have been a shoe-in win by a competent opposition declared by the second day of counting. But it wasn't.

 

The problem with using electoral college votes to gauge a landslide is that the number of votes may easily not reflect the actual sentiment and vote - remember, DT won with less of the popular vote. The problem is, if you win a state by a vote or a million, you take all the college votes for that state, which skews the result. There have been cases of faithless electors and they have been able to be punished (and I think their vote overturned - but can't find anything to support that). Either way, the number of electoral votes is not representative of the proportion of electoral votes, and cannot be used to claim a landslide.

 

At present, the voting gap is c. 2.9%. If it widens to, say 4%, it is the same as the Brexit referndum - where people were calling it too close to be meaningful and trying to frustrate a coventant made by pollies. I guess the materiality of the gap is guided by whether you agree or disagree with whatever it is the vote is for (for the record, I am definitely not a Trump or Republican supporter - but the democrats seem to have lost their way, as well.. I wonder what the libertarian party is about). The fairer gauge would be the national vote (and why they don't just go to this from the electoral college system is bewildering). Assuming Biden wins with a 4% lead of the popular vote, it is not the largest in modern times. Obama's first election saw him with a 7.3% margin, Bill Clinton beat 5.5% on his first and did well to increase that to 8.5% on his second; and from George Bush back to Nixon, all but 1 well exceeded 4%. So, on that basis, no, Biden's impending win does not look like a landslide to me. Otherwise, on the basis of electoral college votes being used as the gauge, Hillary scored 224 and Trump 304 - on those numbers. Yet, clearly, it was not a landslide. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin). In fact, given HC had 2.1% more of the popular vote in 2016, if Biden gets a 4% margin he will have extended the gap by 1.9%.. You can argue it is an about 85% gain in the margin, but given his opposition being Trump, this really is not a great endorsement. What was a great endorsement is that unlike the 2016 election, where voter turnout was only something like 55% (not indicating apathy,  but between the two, there was no one a lot of people would pick), this election got both sides of the political divide fired up and ready to enage for their party.

 

Biden may have polled the most votes in history, but this would mean that Trump can't be too far behind - the reason being an large increase in the number of voter registration and participation. If you increase the population of voters and increase the participation rate, chances are the winner is going to have an absolute larger number of votes than anyone preceding.

 

In the house elections, so far, the democrats have lost 4 seats and the republicans have gained 5. The democrats look like they will fall short of 2 for the senate. I defer to others on the bias of the polling system to the GOP, however, with falling short of 2, notching 1 up at the cost of the republicans. So, it wasn't a huge gain and in both cases, the Democrats should have faired a lot better - particularly if it were a landslide. Some prominent democrats house legislators, including Cortez (can't recall herfull name) were ousted. They may win the presidency, they may still have the majority of the house, but the fact they took declines (ironically except for a nominal increase in the senate), there aren't too many senior democrats wearing sincere smiles at the moment. This is akin to the election of Theresa May - who took a 21 point lead in the polls and whittled it away to having to form a coalition.. admittedly though, she wasn't helped by an extremely divided party..

Edited November 7, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[octave]

16 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Some prominent democrats house legislators, including Cortez (can't recall herfull name) were ousted.

Do you mean Alexandria Ocasia-Cortez?   She was returned.

Edited November 7, 2020 by octave

[Jerry_Atrick]

Oops.. My bad.. she did retain her seat.. I will have to check which it was (I was sure it was her who was reported as losing.. must have been watching late)...

 

Edit: Was Gina Ortiz Jones.... Darned double-barrelled names...

 

 

Edited November 7, 2020 by Jerry_Atrick

[old man emu]

At the election that gave F D Roosevelt he got 60.8% of the popular vote to his opponent's 36%, and took 523 electoral college votes of the 531 available in that year. (The number changes with increase in population). That's what you call a landslide, and in that election he was as popular as tomato sauce on a Four and Twenty. In subsequent elections the divide was roughly 55/45, but those were the hard years of the War.

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, kgwilson said:

I wonder if Trump will try to pardon himself as he reckons he can between now & Bidens inauguration.

I can't see how he could pardon himself before he's charged with anything. And he can't be charged with anything until he's not president anymore, and when he's not president, he can't pardon himself. I don't know how commonly the presidential pardon is abused. Bill Clinton pardoned one of his mates doing time for insider trading on his last day as president, but that's the only on I can think of off hand.

Edited November 7, 2020 by willedoo

[old man emu]

There's light at the end of the tunnel if Trump manages to pull off this election. Like the curse of Tutankhamun, there is a supposed curse on US Presidents. It is the Curse of Tippecanoe, which says that every President elected in a year divisible by 20 will die in Office.  2020/20 = 101. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_Tippecanoe

[Jerry_Atrick]

OK.. so that does not bode well for Biden, then?