The climate change debate continues.

[octave]

Australia is a long way behind many other countries.  You certainly see loads on the road in NZ although they are often Japanese second hand imports.   There is a scheme Aus where people band together and they then import a batch of second hand vehicles.    Older vehicles start at about 17k.      

 

Tesla is aiming to produce a 25k vehicle in 2 or 3 years although I suspect that by the time they arrive in Aus the cost of delivery will add to that,

 

EVs are already competitive in terms of purchase price with ICE at the high end of the market at least.  One thing we have to get used to is comparing not just the initial purchase price but the lifetime cost including fuel and servicing.   My next car will most likely be an EV.   

[Jerry_Atrick]

@onetrack - that electric care revolution may happen sooner than you think: https://scitechdaily.com/breakthrough-allows-inexpensive-electric-vehicle-battery-to-charge-in-just-10-minutes/

 

I find it absurd the Aussie government pumps many 10s/100s of millions into Coal and Gas subsidies.. but not to developing home grown future technologies that will bring much better and longer term socio-economic benefit to Australians...  But that is the subject of another thread...

 

[Edit] As an aside, banks are now treating new fossil fuel project and other forms of finance as increasingly risky... I know where I am now is moving out of that market...

Edited January 21, 2021 by Jerry_Atrick

[gareth lacey]

And yet the oil companies are spending billions on exploration for more oil and gas , all of us on this forum wont see the end of oil in our lifetime ,electric cars are the future for cities ,but outback Australia will not see it for a long time .

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

I think, assuming I live to expected age, towards the end of my lifetime, ICE and Deisel will be collectors cars.. Oil is still required for materials such as polymers, and of course, it will be some time before it will be replaced in the aviation market, although in that area, hyperloop rail systems may largely replace short-haul airline services...

 

I think you will find hybrids may be the norm for Outback and similar areas...

 

[octave]

Many countries have announced end dates for IC vehicles .  Most car companies are now selling or developing EVs.  I suspect that before the end of IC vehicles the price trajectory will be such that the IC vehicle will be the more expensive option.    

[Jerry_Atrick]

I forgot about that.. The UK originally slated in the requirement for something like 2045, but I think it was BoJo who brought it forward to 2030: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/the-uk-plans-to-ban-sales-of-diesel-and-petrol-cars-from-2030.html

 

I am nto sure what the EU's timetable is, but manufacturers are already planning on pulling out of pure ICE cars: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/honda-stop-selling-pure-petrol-and-diesel-cars-europe-2022

 

Obviously, second hand cars will be allowed to be boght and sold for some time to come, but my guess is, in the EU especially, emissions requirements will continuously tighten to make all but those destined to be classics not worth keeping on the road..

 

Obviously, until the US and China will need to ban it as well to really dent the market.

 

Looks like China is planning it.. 2035: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/china-bans-fossil-fuel-vehicles-electric/

 

Of course, under Trump, this would not happen, but the worlds 5th largest economy, California is: https://news.trust.org/item/20201118095737-8h1uh

 

Note, California is under strain as people start leaving for less regulated states, and quite a few big tech companies are looking to move to.. It is shame corporate greed exceeds the desire to make the planet more habitable (or less uninhabitable) for future generations despite the massive profits they already make.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Jerry_Atrick

[Jerry_Atrick]

Another bid of welcome news: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-drilling-study/u-s-and-canada-underestimating-climate-risk-from-abandoned-oil-and-gas-wells-study-idUSKBN29P2OZ

 

[Marty_d]

12 hours ago, onetrack said:

Only public servants living in that Canberra bubble of huge salaries for pushing pens, would be able to afford the eye-watering prices the manufacturers want for electric cars.

And they, of all people, are the ones least likely to be in need of subsidies.

There wouldn't be too many "lower-socio-economic group" people in Canberra - who are the ones who would be best served with a subsidy, because they usually drive polluting, worn-out, "old bombs".

 

Haven't you been to Queanbeyan?

 

I know most of Canberra is public servants, politicians & prostitutes,  but there's a fair few poorer people too.

 

I agree that the price of EV's is too high - cheapest is the MG at $40k and it only has 270km range - but hopefully they'll come down.  Given the high interest in EV's but concerns about the price, I think manufacturers need to think about changing their "lets make the first ones expensive to cover costs then economies of scale will lead to price reduction" business model, and go straight to taking the risk up front and delivering cheaper cars to the market.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Unf, as with any new tech, it will be expensive to start with and over time, as economies of scale grow, they drop in price. This has been the same with just about any new tech.

 

Of course, governments can help by subsidising and utilising such tech... And it can help the economy, too.

 

If ScoMo is serious about manufacturing in Aus.. then by subsidising ev car sales, he can grow a Brisbane based company that manufactures power charging stations: https://tritiumcharging.com/

 

Also, directing government departments to buy Aussie made hydrogen cars, he can help another Aussie car company (well, he will have to wait til 2022 as they are still in development): https://www.h2x.earth/

 

Maybe dropping any sales tax (if there is any) on tractors, but only those made in Aus and only those with Hdrogen fuel cells could help the same company... And, if we can create enough demand locally to develop some really good stuff, maybe we can export it and makde more moola...

 

 

OK - there is risk - I get it.. And of course, there is infrastructure required as well (hec, stimulating Aussie companies to meet that demand may also be a winner). Forward thinking and a bit of stimulus can go a long way and create jobs that will eventually come under threat ass the rest of the world moves away, or significantly reduces its demand forfossil fuels

Edited January 21, 2021 by Jerry_Atrick

[octave]

Although I have not lived in Canberra, I did live on a bush  property in the region and worked in Canberra for 20 or so years.   There are plenty of low income people in the ACT.  There is this notion that the whole residents are all highly paid public servants.   Whilst the average income in the ACT is higher this does not mean that there are many low paid workers.   People with incomes  still require the services of shop assistants and pizza deliverers.  Canberra like any city has it's poor socioeconomic suburbs.

 

I think it does make sense to cater for the higher end of the EV market first. This allows for costly R&D to be supported by a higher sales price.   This is also the way technology tends to go, think mobile phones PCs etc.

 

Tesla has announced its $25000 for 2022 (although this is "Elon" time so could be a little optimistic)     Most legacy car companies can see the writing on the wall and are desperately trying to catch up.  In the next few years there will be a wide range a cars available at the mid to low end of the market.  

[old man emu]

As I see it, EVs biggest drawback is the charging rate. It's no worry for those who use the vehicle for the daily drive to work, or the daily running around locally. They can simply be recharged overnight, and so don't really need public, fast chargers. But what if you want to take a trip, say from the southwest edge of Sydney (The Oaks) to the Hunter wine areas. That's about 250 kms, which seems to be a bit over a half charge of the cars available in the lower price ranges. 

 

It means that somewhere the energy levels of the vehicle are going to have to be restored. How long does it take compared to pump 50 litres of fuel into an IC vehicle? How common are charging points. Does owning an EV mean an end to day trips like this? Or does it mean that the day trip becomes an overnighter?

[onetrack]

The recharge time factor is just one angle of the EV revolution. I mean to say, it's bad enough waiting 10 mins in a servo while some dope farts around thoughtlessly, extending a simple process like filling a petrol tank, into an ordeal for everyone waiting.

 

But with EV's, servos are going to have to have room to park hundreds of vehicles for recharging purposes, and that recharging process will take some considerable time, as OME says.

The average servo probably has room to park 20 vehicles at best - unless someone comes up with a way to double and triple stack cars on charge.

 

I'm also concerned about where the massive amount of power is going to come from in short periods for EV recharging?

There's going to be a huge power demand as 100,000 vehicles demand a full charge every 20 mins. We haven't got enough power-generating ability to be able to do that, and provide power for domestic and industrial consumption, too.

 

The only way I can see EV's becoming totally successful, is if all the manufacturers agree on a standard dimension battery, with a quick-change battery installation in every EV.

You would then have servos as a repository of fully charged batteries on standby (just like BBQ gas bottles are today) - and you'd pull in, pay a recharge fee, do a battery swap in less than a minute, and be on your way. The servos stockpile of swap batteries could be charged slowly and steadily, and take advantage of cheaper night-time power generation.

 

But I can't see anyone even mentioning or planning for a setup like that - although it is entirely viable, IMO.

 

Maybe this is why the Japanese are planning for a hydrogen economy and a multitude of production H2 cars. I believe both Toyota and Mitsubishi are planning in that direction.

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by onetrack

[old man emu]

Because pure hydrogen does not occur naturally on Earth in large quantities, it usually requires a primary energy input to produce on an industrial scale. Hydrogen fuel can be produced from methane or by electrolysis of water.[9] As of 2020, the majority of hydrogen (∼95%) is produced from fossil fuels by steam reforming or partial oxidation of methane and coal gasification with only a small quantity by other routes such as biomass gasification or electrolysis of water.

 

There ain't no such thing as a free lunch!

[onetrack]

I believe the current hydrogen planning is to use large solar-power stations in outlying areas to electrolyse water to produce both hydrogen and oxygen.

These products can both be utilised. The oxygen can be released into the atmosphere, if not contained for industrial use, and the hydrogen can then be transported by road tanker or pipeline (or ship) to where the hydrogen energy requirement is needed. It's simple enough to convert the hydrogen into ammonia for transport.

 

The University of Newcastle has developed an attractive method of doing this, by drawing the water requirements from the atmosphere.

 

https://www.newcastle.edu.au/newsroom/featured/new-green-hydrogen-made-from-solar-power-and-air

 

https://www.ft.com/content/73505b3c-acd8-4bd5-b91a-fddfa2f331fb

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by onetrack

[nomadpete]

3 hours ago, Marty_d said:

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by nomadpete
thought better of posting a caustic comment that might offend

[octave]

Onetrack there are answers to the questions you pose.   I can write a tedious post with facts and figures if you like but just to generalize for the moment.  You have to be mindful that a lot of criticisms come from vested interested on resisting change.

 

Will the grid explode?  I have seen no credible evidence that this is a problem.    The grid expands to follow usage.   There are even advantages for the grid in smart charging and vehicle to grid technology.   In my own case (I don't own one yet but expect to in the next 3 or 4 years) my home solar power system  produces a surplus of 1.5 Mwh per year.   Consider Norway with its huge uptake of EVs, around %74  of new car sales and I don't think the grid is melting down.   In most countries  the conversion to Battery EVs will not be sudden but gradual. The grid already adapts to new housing developments and new train lines and factories.   The rise of home solar will also be a factor.

 

My son is a passionate petrol head and owns a few interesting cars but his daily drive is a Tesla 3P (yep pretty expensive)  It was cheaper to buy than an ICE vehicle with similar performance.  He lives in NZ and has done a few trips around the country.   If you want to drive for 8 hours solid it would not be a good choice of vehicle.  We went on a road trip with him and drove all day but stopped for lunch and used the supercharger whilst we ate. It takes 40 minutes get from empty to %80 0r 327 km in 20 minutes.   For the most part he plugs it in at home and it charges overnight at a low rate.   From memory it costs about $4 per 100k (in a country where a litre of fuel can be over $2)

 

Australia is some way behind when it comes to infrastructure but there are more charging stations then many people think.   Tesla electric car owners release round Australia charging station map 

 

Meanwhile in Britain https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoN4WCpuxHY&t=969sGRIDSERVE's Electric Forecourt

 

We have come to believe that the only refueling model is the old dash in, fill up and pick up a litre of milk.  I think the model that is developing overseas is the business provides charging whilst you shop or eat etc. 

 

The range is increasing every year. My sons car has a published range of 657 km (about the same as my ford focus.) 

 

Battery swap does happen but has many downsides and has never taken off.

 

Likewise hydrogen is something I am enthusiastic about however I don't think it will take of for passenger vehicles unfortunately.

 

I am  not in favour of everyone scrapping their cars and buying an EV that would be crazy.  I am quite confident that EVs will gradually displace ICE vehicles.   ICE vehicles will not disappear anytime soon, even in the longer term hobbyists will still own them much in the way that people do not use a  horse for day to day transport but many people keep and ride horses for pleasure.

 

 

 

[pmccarthy]

There are more horses today in Australia than there were in 1900. So perhaps the ICE hobby vehicle, maintained indefinitely by enthusiasts, is also here to stay. Which explains the high demand for 1960 s and 70s cars at present, they can be maintained by the owner.

[old man emu]

All the young hoons want is stylish bodywork and the ability to spin the rear wheels rapidly while the car is moving ever so slowly. The only thing missing is the noise.

They only have to download this file and run it through their high output car audio systems, and they'll have all they need, even in a battery powered car.

 

 

[old man emu]

This is a startling news report which may have Sydneysiders, dare I say it?, moving to Melbourne.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-01-24/heatwaves-sydney-uninhabitable-climate-change-urban-planning/12993580

 

I remember reading that on 26th January 1788, the day was quite hot and in the evening a "Southerly Buster" came through with colossal thunderstorms. That got me looking for weather reports to confirm what I thought was correct. I came across this very interesting collation of weather data

 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/early-data/sources/0_metadata.pdf

 

Looking at the early records from 1788 to 1791, it struck me that the weather then was cooler in summer than it is today. (Double Click on the image to enlarge)

[onetrack]

What I don't understand is how measurements taken in the 1700's and 1800's with equipment that often had a dubious degree of accuracy (such as thermometers), and which was rarely calibrated, re-calibrated, and certified, can be compared to todays measurements taken with scientific instruments that are deadly accurate to the nth degree.

 

We are reportedly talking about a couple of degrees temperature rise globally with GW - yet I'll wager a very large number of early thermometers were more than a couple of degrees out.

And I regularly see the BOM go back over their records, to carry out records "adjustments". WTF does that do for long-term calculations?

 

I for one, would like to see the BOM records adjustments overseen by an independent body. Until then, we are totally reliant on national (Govt) weather authorities acting as the sole, unaudited source of weather recording information.

 

https://jennifermarohasy.com/2015/09/you-dont-know-the-half-of-it-temperature-adjustments-and-the-australian-bureau-of-meteorology/

[octave]

BoM does have its data peer reviewed. 

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/acorn-sat/#tabs=Expert-review

 

On the other hand the 2015 article  "You don't know the half of it"  was written by Jennifer Marohasy Phd in Biology and head of the environment unit at the Institute of public affairs (a right wing think tank). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Marohasy

 

Of course it could be that BoM is falsifying records and independent peer reviewers are in on the scam.  Advanced countries around the world also keep temperature records.  I guess if BoM was manipulating the temperature records they would stand out like a sore thumb when compared to the data collected from other countries weather organizations, unless they are all in on it. 

 

It could also be true that someone with pollical leanings strong enough to seek employment with a right wing think tank may tend towards supporting the ethos of their employer. 

 

 

 

[old man emu]

58 minutes ago, onetrack said:

measurements taken in the 1700's and 1800's with equipment that often had a dubious degree of accuracy

You have a very poor opinion of the ability of craftsmen in the 18th Century to make fine machinery. And what is a mercury thermometer other than a sealed glass tube mercury. You don't just put mercury in a tube and say, she'll be right. After you make the mercury filled tube, you calibrate it against a mixture of ice and just melted water to get it's lower value, and then you stick it in boiling water to get the upper level. Then you make marks on a stick of wood equal to the distance between the lowest level and the highest and divide those marks according to the system you use -  0 to 100 for Celsius or 32 to 212 for Fahrenheit. There's nothing after that to take the thermometer out of calibration, unless the tube slips against the scale stick.

[pmccarthy]

There is a lot of documentation about the adjustments being made to the historic data by similar organisations in other countries. Of course, it is all written by people who, like Marohasy, are considered dishonest or stupid by the warmists and therefore ignored. 

[Bruce Tuncks]

You can safely ride a bike in Canberra, it has separated tracks from the roads.

Actually, the only problem with government services in Australia is that they are not as good as Canberra's.

This is why I support Australia breaking up into states and even smaller.  The money all gets spent near the seat of power, so the more such seats the better.

[spacesailor]

Bruce T

Untill the pollies want to change those borders to suit their adjenda.

Then anything goes.

Bigger councils swollowing smaller councils. 

spacesailor