turboplanner Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 latest poll results are in... “The ALP (52.5%, unchanged since the final Morgan Poll of 2013) has maintained its clear lead over the L-NP (47.5%, unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis in the first major public opinion poll of 2014. The ALP’s lead is stronger amongst women: ALP (55.5%, down 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, up 2.5%) while men give the L-NP (51%, down 2%) cf. ALP (49%, up 2%) a slight advantage on a two-party preferred basis." Although you only alluded to a Morgan Poll rather than just coming out and telling us, the advantage in having a source is that people can check it for themselves. What you left off your post, which makes a big difference is the following paragraph "This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends (January 4/5 & 11/12, 2014) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,527 Australian electors aged 18+." 2,527 out of millions of voters is not serious polling a party needs to take action on. Both major Parties would be polling thousands more than that as we speak, and can usually predict an election result several weeks out, even though they publicly will be whistling past the graveyard to the very end.
turboplanner Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 The question is in 2 parts. Do you let them in?...and - once here, how do we treat them. I know there are a lot of people who can't understand the sort of issues raised in stories such as "Ship of the Damned". How can people be that callous? we ask ourselves and then the self realisation that is how we are treating these unfortunates. Silly, eh? The answer to the first part appears to be based on, as far as I can see with a quick glance: (a) what we can afford (because once they are in, they get medical benefits, pensions etc even though they have never paid taxes in Australia, this is offset by agreements with some countries that the originating country where pensions are paid by that country, where the person paid his taxes. So, for example Italian immigration could be raised because we can afford more. (b) how it will affect unemployment In the City of Greater Dandenong we have 153 Nationalities, so not too many countries have been excluded. All have worked out well except for two ethnic groups which aren't necessary to discuss on this thread. The answer to the second part I haven't checked formally, but for anyone seriously interested, Federal support will probably be spelled out on the Immigration site where I got the earlier statistics, then there is State support, which includes low cost housing, then there is local government support, which includes some free housing, a number of support services such as English training schools, and Grants. For example one group in Dandenong were given a Grant of $45,000.00 to teach their members how to read a Melway street directory. On top of that they receive assistance from charity groups and volunteers. So while the Federal income figures someone quoted a few pages ago look rather meagre, they are augmented by support worth many thousands of dollars per year, and the experience I've had here in Dandenong is that they can quickly be seen in nice new clothes, looking clean, neat and tidy, and living in normal homes which they also keep neat clean and tidy, something I can't say for fourth generation Australians sucking on pot with hair down to their asses and body odour which kills the fleas, living in houses with peeling paint and grass up to your waist. They are also able to get a reasonable car quickly, and get their kids into the local schools, and armed with all of this infrastructure they seem to be quickly getting jobs and contributing to the country.
facthunter Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 Morgan polling is able to show reliable results when compared with many others who might not be as disinterested in the figures. Nev
turboplanner Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 Morgan polling is able to show reliable results when compared with many others who might not be as disinterested in the figures. Nev Morgan polling is more reliable than some of the others who just phone 250 people, however no serious Party or Corporate research would rely on those figures. There were 14,765,883 million people enrolled to vote at September 30 last year according to the AEC, and the 2527 Morgan polled represents 0.0171%.
Old Koreelah Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 ...In the City of Greater Dandenong we have 153 Nationalities, so not too many countries have been excluded.All have worked out well except for two ethnic groups which aren't necessary to discuss on this thread. ... they can quickly be seen in nice new clothes, looking clean, neat and tidy, and living in normal homes which they also keep neat clean and tidy, something I can't say for fourth generation Australians sucking on pot with hair down to their asses and body odour which kills the fleas, living in houses with peeling paint and grass up to your waist. They are also able to get a reasonable car quickly, and get their kids into the local schools, and armed with all of this infrastructure they seem to be quickly getting jobs and contributing to the country. We have little to complain about...as long as their kids don't grow up intent on destroying our way of life.
facthunter Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 They all have limitations , but results confirm Morgan as better than most. They are the only one I use regularly. It depends on the questions posed and the group selected more than numbers polled. There would be a point of diminishing returns on numbers polled. I've been polled quite a few times which is quite surprising. NOT by Morgan though. Nev
fly_tornado Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 The LNP adopted the ALP border policy and now that is rejected by the general public. http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australians-want-boat-arrivals-treated-more-harshly-poll-20140108-30g97.html Morrison has announced he won't do pressers any more after too many difficult questions http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-14/scott-morrison-says-he-will-stop-holding-weekly-asylum-seeker-b/5200158 and they sell off the onshore processing centres http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-announces-closure-of-four-immigration-detention-centres-20140114-30rys.html That gentlemen is a government delivering failure!
Teckair Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 What's creative about that Methusla? There are a couple of posters who love the creative button it's their way of saying they can't handle the truth.
fly_tornado Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 Morgan polling is more reliable than some of the others who just phone 250 people, however no serious Party or Corporate research would rely on those figures. There were 14,765,883 million people enrolled to vote at September 30 last year according to the AEC, and the 2527 Morgan polled represents 0.0171%. either way you look at it, Abbott governments numbers really really stink. Once the budget cuts start kicking in later this year its hard to see how they turn it around for a 2nd term.
Marty_d Posted January 14, 2014 Posted January 14, 2014 I think that you've proved the point that if you let the undesirables in, they will ruin the place. While I oppose your position, I like your post. (The point I was trying to make is that we're all undesirable to the original owners, so what right have we got trying to keep out people we consider undesirable in a different way.) ... and the experience I've had here in Dandenong is that they can quickly be seen in nice new clothes, looking clean, neat and tidy, and living in normal homes which they also keep neat clean and tidy, something I can't say for fourth generation Australians sucking on pot with hair down to their asses and body odour which kills the fleas, living in houses with peeling paint and grass up to your waist. They are also able to get a reasonable car quickly, and get their kids into the local schools, and armed with all of this infrastructure they seem to be quickly getting jobs and contributing to the country. You raise an interesting point Turbo. Looks like we should be importing more asylum seekers who really want to be here, and export bogans. Not sure which country would want them though. Maybe England... they sent their convicts here, maybe it's time to return the favour?
Methusala Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 G'day Turbo. My point is simply that market researchers like Morgans have a vested interest in accurately reflecting the views of the population. And they get it right on most occasions. The number of people sampled may seem small to an outsider but they know their business. If you believe that they are inaccurate then you should explain why in technical terms and not use an unverified method such as, "...2,527 out of millions of voters is not serious polling...". Unfortunately for you, the Abbott govt is doing really badly in historical terms for the section of electoral cycle we're in now. I hope their luck continues up to polling day 2016 but it is a long time off and the Australian polity have been fooled more than once. Regards, Don
Old Koreelah Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 (The point I was trying to make is that we're all undesirable to the original owners, so what right have we got trying to keep out people we consider undesirable in a different way.) Looks like we should be importing more asylum seekers who really want to be here, and export bogans. Not sure which country would want them though. Maybe England... they sent their convicts here, maybe it's time to return the favour? One of the great, (but hardly noticed) moments in Australian history was when the great Birnum Birnum ceremonially planted the Aboriginal flag on the shore at Dover. Perhaps he should have gone on to deport the undesirables back to Blighty. But that was never the Aboriginal way; they were a bit too tolerant and welcoming. A short clip from another great Aussie movie:
fly_tornado Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Aus gov has purchased a large number of lifeboats, can't wait to hear what the outrage from the bigots when they turn up on Australian shores
Marty_d Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 I foresee a thriving boat market where Aussies travel to Indonesia, buy broken-down fishing vessels for bugger all, travel 12 miles towards Australia then swap it for their brand new lifeboat courtesy of the Navy. Keep an eye on Gumtree for a large increase in orange boats...
turboplanner Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 One of the great, (but hardly noticed) moments in Australian history was when the great Birnum Birnum ceremonially planted the Aboriginal flag on the shore at Dover. Perhaps he should have gone on to deport the undesirables back to Blighty. But that was never the Aboriginal way; they were a bit too tolerant and welcoming.A short clip from another great Aussie movie: He was a brilliant guy
Gnarly Gnu Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Who is that guy, did he start a circus or something?
turboplanner Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Who is that guy, did he start a circus or something? He was an aboriginal who returned Captain Cooks favour of planting the British flag on Australian soil and claimed Australia for Britain. Birnum Birnum landed on the coast of Britain, planted the Aboriginal flag on British soil and claimed Britain for Australia. He was unopposed by the British Defence Force. So based on equal legality the Aboriginal people now own Britain.
M61A1 Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 M61A1 Life is great! Basically you can do what you like if you don't hurt anyone else. Want to walk down the street with a cold beer on a hot day, or crack one in the supermarket? Go ahead. There are lots of boxes to tick. I collected my "Identidade de Estrangeiro" yesterday after 2 years. But now I am officially a Brasileiro! Flying regs are more or less the same here. More responsibility is placed on YOU as a person. There is no nanny state here. If you fall in a shop - it's your problem, not the proprietors'! I haven't had much to do with the ultralight side of aviation here but do get the chance to rub shoulders with professional pilots. I teach Cambridge, conversational and aviation English. Little money but very satisfying. If you want to feel truly welcomed, come to Brazil! If you are all bigoted, forget it! An amazing mix of races and colours here. I love it! Is there much work for helicopter/fixed wing aircraft maintainers? I can drive and fix asphalt plant stuff as well.
turboplanner Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 G'day Turbo. My point is simply that market researchers like Morgans have a vested interest in accurately reflecting the views of the population. And they get it right on most occasions. The number of people sampled may seem small to an outsider but they know their business. If you believe that they are inaccurate then you should explain why in technical terms and not use an unverified method such as, "...2,527 out of millions of voters is not serious polling...". Unfortunately for you, the Abbott govt is doing really badly in historical terms for the section of electoral cycle we're in now. I hope their luck continues up to polling day 2016 but it is a long time off and the Australian polity have been fooled more than once. Regards, Don My point was the Morgan Poll as represented by FT, if applied to the number of people who frequent this forum represented about 0.02% of a person, or about the depth of Facthunter's top layer of hair, so you couldn't even see his eyebrows to judge an expression one way or the other. I'm involved in polling from time to time for both political and industrial reasons, so I know what we look for in numbers of people polled, locations, implications, trends, policies, wishes etc. More importantly we set the questions very carefully because that quite often decides the outcome. And it's not set to just give us good news, particularly those of us who've studied the US Ford Edsel and Australian Commodore fiascos. As I understand it Morgans selected various areas of the community, and over time have refined that for greater accuracy, and there's nothing wrong with that for newspaper reporting and giving the trailing Party something to think about. I'm not that interested in whether Tony Abbott is doing well or doing badly at the present time; it's still a bit too early in terms of budget effect to define, and a lot of people are just making judgements off the daily media, which you can tell by reading this thread. I will be critical of the government if it doesn't address post Mining and post Manufacturing living standards for all Australians sooner rather than too later.
M61A1 Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 While I oppose your position, I like your post. (The point I was trying to make is that we're all undesirable to the original owners, so what right have we got trying to keep out people we consider undesirable in a different way.) We have the right to oppose other undesirables, yes our ancestors were undesirable to the indigenous folk, it doesn't mean I should feel guilty about that and let it happen again. If the Aboriginals had better border control things might have worked better for them. We have the option of better border control, use it wisely, there a few European countries regretting their loose immigration policies at the moment Yes, I agree that it was essentially an invasion, but there have been a lot of countries change hands over the years, are we going to demand that we go back and give them all of those countries/continents back to the first provable inhabitants?
turboplanner Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 which based on the latest book I read would mean going back about 400,000 years, to bones which predate the aboriginals.
M61A1 Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 . More importantly we set the questions very carefully because that quite often decides the outcome. I'd be fairly certain there would be a few polls out there that set their questions carefully too....to make sure they get the answer they want.
turboplanner Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 No doubt some do when they have an agenda, but the agenda of the major political parties is to get accurate data so they formulate new strategies around that. They'd be drop kicks to set polling to say they were going to win by a landslide, be laughed at by the other party and follow that up by losing an election by a bigger margin. I'd have to say our political pollsters on both side are as smart as whips and leave corporate Australia in their dust.
fly_tornado Posted January 15, 2014 Posted January 15, 2014 common sense prevailing at last http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/plan-to-apply-full-value-of-family-home-to-aged-pension-asset-test-just-a-new-tax-on-sydney/story-fni0cx12-1226801984853
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