Iran

[Yenn]

Nev. You hit the nail on the head. The yanks are never happy unless they have someone to hate. Think Cuba, Viet Nam, Libiya, N Korea, China, Iran. and countless other places.

 

 

[Litespeed]

Yep, 

 

Self hate is very destructive when projecting it outwards.

 

 

[willedoo]

An empire in decline might be at it's most dangerous and least predictable stage. Add to the mix bad leadership and the problem magnifies.

 

In today's news the Iranian foreign minister has stated that Iran will respond to any attack with all out war. They seem to be in a fairly good position to say that with Iran having a very high level of good air defences, a big naval torpedo boat force, and rough, mountainous terrain to help defend the nation. In an intensive conflict, Iran would get hurt, no doubt, but it's highly unlikely the country could ever be overtaken and occupied. Any attempt at that would be another Afghanistan or Vietnam. Then there's the scenario where the U.S. forces and their allies in the region could be hurt worse. Iran also has a lot of allies and proxies able to co-ordinate strikes from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq etc., putting Israel at great risk as well. What America doesn't get is that Americans don't have the staying power or fortitude for long wars. They try to fight people who have the ability and determination to fight for a hundred years if need be. Underestimation of the enemy is their big problem.

 

Rewind back to the Obama administration and the nuclear deal with Iran. It was succeeding according to all the member States minus the U.S., and was verified as so by the relevant international agencies. All the U.S. had to do was keep their word and not double cross Iran. And for Britain and the Europeans involved to do the same and not be bullied by the sanctions of the initial wrecking country. And now the region is on the brink of major warfare. By any stretch of the imagination, Trump's Middle East policy will go down as one of the biggest failures ever unless there's a big importation of brains into Washington very soon.

 

Come next January, the best place for our Frigate is right where it is, around the corner chasing Somali pirates.

 

 

[Yenn]

The importation is under way. Our PM is in Washington. What he has been saying is just embarrassing. He seems to think Trump is a sane leader and that is embarrassing also.

 

I wouldn't trust either of them, but at least Scomo is living up to expectations. A real chip of the Little John block.

 

 

[willedoo]

The importation is under way. Our PM is in Washington. What he has been saying is just embarrassing. He seems to think Trump is a sane leader and that is embarrassing also.

 

I wouldn't trust either of them, but at least Scomo is living up to expectations. A real chip of the Little John block.

 

It was always odds on to be embarrassing with those two combined. But maybe we should give them a chance; I think they're in love.

 

 

[willedoo]

I get the feeling the U.S. really doesn't know what to do about the Saudi attacks, and are hoping the whole thing will die down a bit. Trump has approved a few hundred U.S. military personnel to deploy there, possibly with some more Patriot air defence units. It looks to be a token response to be seen to be doing something. Saudi Arabia already has hundreds of millions of dollars worth of American made systems in place, so it's debatable to what degree a few more will change things.

 

So let's assume the U.S. is correct in that the 25 missiles and drones came from Iran. The targeted oil facilities of Abqaiq and Khurais are not remote sites and are bang smack in the middle of everything, not far from Riyadh itself. And it's not as if the missiles and drones only had a couple of Patriot batteries to avoid; the whole area is fairly heavily defended. Add to that the fact that their trajectory would have taken them close to the U.S. Navy’s 5th. Fleet headquarters with all their defensive detection technology and they weren't detected.

 

There is probably only two likely scenarios here. The missiles came from Yemen as the Houtis claim, or they came from Iran. Either way, America has a real problem with the capabilities of their Patriot and Aegis systems. With the amount they already have in the region failing, Trump's response might help but it will fall a long way short of securing their assets there. It would only take one more attack like this one to cripple Saudi Arabia economically and it also highlights the vulnerability of U.S. bases in the region. There must be a fair bit of head scratching going on in the Pentagon and White House at the moment.

 

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[pmccarthy]

Trump says his team is “locked and loaded”. This is a distortion of language, using nouns as verbs. The command “lock and load” was used in the flintlock days. It meant check your lock and load, that you had a load down the barrel, and check that your lock was primed with powder.

 

 

[willedoo]

Interesting, pm. So the load part means to check the load, not load up.

 

 

[pmccarthy]

Interesting, pm. So the load part means to check the load, not load up.

 

Yes that's right. And lock means check the lock, not lock anything. Apparently it has been a command in the US military for probably 200 years and was used in WW2 but still with the meaning to check that your weapon was ready to fire, not to lock anything or load anything.

 

 

[willedoo]

In the modern usage of the term, I'd assumed it meant to have the firearm cocked with a round in the chamber, safety on. Close, I guess. But I didn't know it originated with flintlocks. It makes sense now.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

...What America doesn't get is that Americans don't have the staying power or fortitude for long wars. They try to fight people who have the ability and determination to fight for a hundred years if need be. Underestimation of the enemy is their big problem...

 

 Absolutely, Willedoo! 

 

It's hard to admit it, but history might thank Trump for something: the hornet's nest that he stirred up has finally demonstrated the inferiority of America's "defence" systems. The US and its allies spend squillions propping up America's bloated weapons industry, but they can't stop cheap and innovative drones.

 

 

[Yenn]

who says the Yanks don't have staying power. They have been 18 years in Afghanistan. What II say is that they don't have the mental power to know how to stop.

 

 

[willedoo]

Relative to people like the Taliban, they don't. The Taliban recently said they are prepared to fight the next hundred years if need be. I'd believe them. Whether the Americans are still there in 20 years time, who knows. The Vietnamese had a three level battle plan designed to fight 1,000 years if they had to. A lot of them know it will take time, but eventually the Americans leave.

 

 

[spacesailor]

Not surprising the Americans left. THAT FRENCH WAR.

 

None of the combatants Other than the french should have been involved,

 

Just the Locals rebelling at their NASTY Masters.

 

(according to my teachers)

 

spacesailor

 

 

[willedoo]

It seems all quiet on the Western Front for a while. Latest news from the region is that the Americans have temporarily abandoned their Air Force's Middle East Command Centre in Qatar and moved it to South Carolina because of vulnerabilities to Iranian strikes.

 

This is an interesting analysis of the U.S. made air defence system failure during the recent strikes. The comments by the former director of the Israel Missile Defence Organisation seem to concur with what the Russians previously said about it as well. It looks like the Americans need to move to a more layered system like the Russians have if they want to stay in the game. It's what happens when you cut R&D to fund perpetual war; you're bound to fall behind.

 

https://sputniknews.com/military/201909281076913239-israeli-defence-engineer-reveals-why-saudi-defences-failed-to-repel-aramco-attacks-/

 

 

[facthunter]

 A ha so you need something good connected to the Big RED button. Better tell Donald.. Nev

 

 

[willedoo]

The thought of any of them with a big red button is a bit scary after watching this simulation by researchers at Princeton University:

 

 

 

 

[spacesailor]

WOW No Brexit now.

 

And its not a laughing matter.

 

When did that European WAR begin?

 

The Vikings invaded England, the Normans, & French invaded England.

 

Good job I got out before ALL that Nuclear shiit starts.

 

spacesailor

 

 

[Litespeed]

That simulation is very rosy.

 

The numbers dead would be a great deal more than stated and neglected a very big target that is essential to command and control for US forces.

 

Yep Pine Gap, you can bet it would be a first strike target.

 

No a pretty thought.

 

Real deaths would be in billions with a huge amount of fallout. Nuclear winter is a real thing.

 

 

[Yenn]

Global warming is the antidote to nuclear winter.

 

 

[facthunter]

Trump has something up his nose bigtime. Sounding something like a Godfather Mafia style. . World recession? You can't rule it out. Nev

 

 

[spacesailor]

The state pensioner's ARE in World recession.

 

TAX relief doesn't help with ALL our bills going up !.

 

spacesailor

 

 

[willedoo]

That simulation is very rosy.

 

The numbers dead would be a great deal more than stated and neglected a very big target that is essential to command and control for US forces.

 

Yep Pine Gap, you can bet it would be a first strike target.

 

No a pretty thought.

 

Real deaths would be in billions with a huge amount of fallout. Nuclear winter is a real thing.

 

I thought the same thing, that the numbers called were way too low. And right about Pine Gap, one of the first on the list for sure.

 

 

[Old Koreelah]

One element of war theory is limiting escalation.

 

Wiping out their eyes and ears (e.g. Pine Gap) renders them blind, increasing the risk of a disproportionate response, leading to Total War.

 

 

[willedoo]

It's crazy stuff; no winners in nuclear war. Conventional wars will get a lot more complicated as well, with all the new gadgetry coming on line these days. As shown recently with the Saudi refinery attacks, small drones and cruise missiles can fly below the horizon and get through billion dollar air defence systems. A former director of the Israel Missile Defence Organisation has said they need systems like the Russian Pantsir which has 30 millimetre automatic cannons equipped with infrared direction finders. But not a good chance of the U.S. allowing the Saudis to purchase Russian anti air systems. Maybe something that works along the lines of a bigger version claymore would help.

 

It might become a real problem in the future trying to defend against cheap and easily built drone systems. The potential for drones seems endless, from weapons delivery to electronic warfare. The Russians have trialled using the Orlan-10 UAV to send false text messages to the enemy, instructing them to withdraw to an area to where a strike had been prepared. I wonder how war will go in the future if EW gets to the stage where everything gets jammed and nothing goes bang. They'll have to settle it with an arm wrestle.

 

The catapult launched Orlan-10 looks like a model aeroplane.

 

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